Resolving Crisis - MIT, Media, Academia to Shoulder
2011 03 16
The combination of Earth Quake, Tsunami and FOUR failing nuclear reactors is one unprecedented.
This will be a historical crime for MIT if she is going to celebrate her 150 years anniversary by doing nothing to a crisis its mission is set up to do, her people most equipped to do !
First sadness - The world do not come together to solve it.
Second sadness - The media doing merely more artistic pictures, movies without detail analysis of what is a nuclear reactor, how to stop nuclear reactions. May be only BBC and a few Chinese site provided more technical analysis.
Biggest sadness - the academia, including MIT has been quiet, as if another BP Gulf leak.
This is not Gulf Leak, this is not even Gulf war.
This is four nuclear bombs that may explode in tandem.
This is four nuclear bombs may time to explode at the time the next earth quake, tsunami hit, and typhoon may come earlier.
Heaven is merciful, it gave us a week to rally the best.
But the media, the governments, the academicians are still not taking it seriously.
This will be the worst crime for MIT if she is going to celebrate her 150 years anniversary by doing nothing to a crisis its mission is set up to do !
This is a sad sign that leaders are falling behind media.
And media falling behind common people, commons sense.
Worst, academicians do not realize stopping Nuclear reactor cannot be like fire fighting.
Nuclear reactions is about neutrons, protons shooting at high speed at each other to create nuclear reactions, in this case fission.
How could pouring sea water into nuclear reactor stop the nuclear reaction?
How could world become so poor in understanding basic physics.
It is alright for Prime Minster Kan to get the news of explosion from the TV, hours before his staff reported to him.
But MIT, Researchers, Engineers must you not come to the front and help man kind to ward of the worst disasters initiated by nature, escalated by man made.
It is Japanese, a united, disciplined, highly educated in technology able to with stand.
But this is a world disasters, man kind challenges.
Media mobilize the world best.
Engineers, Professors come to the forefront.
i urge you.
i am with you
Solvere Lim Swee Keng
SM(MIT' 85)
www.cts-ideas.com
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Dynamite Economy 4 - Overcoming
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
click the link to each title...
Table of Content
Dynamite Economy 4.1 Window for Overcoming
Dynamite Economy 4.2 Free from Deadly Thinking
Dynamite Economy 4.3 Policies’ Objective
Dynamite Economy 4.4 Freeing Up Free Market
Dynamite Economy 4.4.1 Non-Factor of Productions (Financial Instruments)
Dynamite Economy 4.4.2 Key Factors of Productions (Commodities)
Dynamite Economy 5 - Put the Growth Engines Back
Dynamite Economy 5.1 Energy Solvere
Dynamite Economy 5.2 Building Automation (Yi-Dian)
Dynamite Economy 5.3 Dotted Giga City (.G)
Dynamite Economy 4.1 Window for Overcoming
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
As explained clearly, as early as 2001, what we face today is not merely a banking industry issues, not merely an economic issues, this is about the stagnation of economy.
After rapid technology advancement over the last 30 years, innovation stagnated. Technology found no ability to create sizable new industries, resulting in Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) cumulated, over supply of labor, brains that found no place to invest. [1]，[2]，[3]
As precisely, timely predicted the situation we face today is of the scale of The Great Depression.
Without solving, the Great Depression led to the most brutal moment in history - World War II.
Anyone serious worried about this?
In a closely connected, interdependent globalized world, powerful nations’ leaders after witnessing many failures, are now wiser, better restrained from initiating major armed conflicts.
However, when there is nothing to keep the brainy, muscular engaging in constructive effort, we witnessed many unprecedented events. Other than bankers forced government to rescue in historical scale, the bank account of French President was broken into, Ukraine freighter carrying tanks and armaments was hijacked, the American coast line was penetrated by Columbian’s drug carrying private submarines.….
These demonstrated to us that the scale of human crafts forever is increasing in scale, proliferate in space and forms, crossing borders, by-passing legal, even moral guideline…..
Concisely:
First – Rich and powerful are plundered, suffering just like the weak, the poor.
Second – Awaken is the Greater public. Instead of exploiting the volatile market, they started to withdraw investment, holding cash - resulting in diminished speculative activities. They behave faster, better than I thought, [4] merely because when self-interest is concern, wisdom, actions come immediately.
Third - World leaders know the magnitude of problems requires international cooperation and the finance industries need fundamental reforms. Unilateral movement will be sidelined.
Fourth - The mighty corporate giants are severely weakened, they are now ready to seek help.
All the above four points open up precious windows for overcoming!!
The power of dynamite can now be used to breaking down major obstacles to reform, necessary reforms.
This open doors, clear paths, to shape a better tomorrow!!
However, if this window for overcoming is not seized, human greed will come back, once fear subsided.
We will end up ready for chaos beyond WWII has imposed on us.
[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[3] “Dynamite Economy – Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolution” Nov 12, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[4] “Dynamite Economy 3 – Deadly Urgency”, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
As explained clearly, as early as 2001, what we face today is not merely a banking industry issues, not merely an economic issues, this is about the stagnation of economy.
After rapid technology advancement over the last 30 years, innovation stagnated. Technology found no ability to create sizable new industries, resulting in Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) cumulated, over supply of labor, brains that found no place to invest. [1]，[2]，[3]
As precisely, timely predicted the situation we face today is of the scale of The Great Depression.
Without solving, the Great Depression led to the most brutal moment in history - World War II.
Anyone serious worried about this?
In a closely connected, interdependent globalized world, powerful nations’ leaders after witnessing many failures, are now wiser, better restrained from initiating major armed conflicts.
However, when there is nothing to keep the brainy, muscular engaging in constructive effort, we witnessed many unprecedented events. Other than bankers forced government to rescue in historical scale, the bank account of French President was broken into, Ukraine freighter carrying tanks and armaments was hijacked, the American coast line was penetrated by Columbian’s drug carrying private submarines.….
These demonstrated to us that the scale of human crafts forever is increasing in scale, proliferate in space and forms, crossing borders, by-passing legal, even moral guideline…..
Concisely:
First – Rich and powerful are plundered, suffering just like the weak, the poor.
Second – Awaken is the Greater public. Instead of exploiting the volatile market, they started to withdraw investment, holding cash - resulting in diminished speculative activities. They behave faster, better than I thought, [4] merely because when self-interest is concern, wisdom, actions come immediately.
Third - World leaders know the magnitude of problems requires international cooperation and the finance industries need fundamental reforms. Unilateral movement will be sidelined.
Fourth - The mighty corporate giants are severely weakened, they are now ready to seek help.
All the above four points open up precious windows for overcoming!!
The power of dynamite can now be used to breaking down major obstacles to reform, necessary reforms.
This open doors, clear paths, to shape a better tomorrow!!
However, if this window for overcoming is not seized, human greed will come back, once fear subsided.
We will end up ready for chaos beyond WWII has imposed on us.
[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[3] “Dynamite Economy – Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolution” Nov 12, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[4] “Dynamite Economy 3 – Deadly Urgency”, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 4.2 Free from Deadly Thinking
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
But why it goes wrong for such a long time, escalated to such scale, what to do, how to do it, no one else seems to have an answer, logical answer, less so effective, all encompassing solutions.
There is no one, other than from this source, has the capacity to talk about how to bring growth back to the world economy!
Basically, with the coming of computers, lead economists, such as Paul Samuelson, Black, Sholes, Merton, have been pursuing some exoteric – Brownian Motions, Ants Walk, Random walk.
They have impressed the practitioners with unwieldy formula. [1]
Politicians, leaders, even professional bankers were then led into wilderness.
Earlier, inventors of these exoteric – Physicists, have realized these are feeble studies - after years of lost in wilderness.
Physicists went back to basics - to predict motion, you must understand how the system behaves then apply the right forces.
What guided scientists is the immense order of nature, so focus is on how nature behave.
What they contributed is they discover orders amidst countless uncertainties, so profitable inventions, billionaires, jobs plentiful.
Have you heard of any respected Physicists talking about Ant Walks?
The bankers, the legislators, the capitalists must learn from Scientists, such as this interesting dialog between Prof Yang Da Li (when he was Director of East Asia Institute, Singapore) with Chinese Premier Wen (Engineer - geology), 2008.
Yang : “With the escalating prices of property, do you release more land for construction?”
“You are the specialist, I am the government of a nation. My focus, my responsibility is to ensure that poor men have accommodations.” Wen said calmly.
Now, with the real estate bubbles burst globally, Premier Wen’s wisdom of looking at fundamental needs of a society, a harmonious society contrasting favorable over hard labor, feeble labor of academicians, even Nobel Economic Prize winners.
This is a precious experience every leader, would be leader must seriously ponder!
If you focus on facts, on indices, then not only you are late into happening, you may not have identified the causes, the complexity and priority, what are appropriate solutions, what are the ultimate objectives of policy.
This is the critical failure in today’s thinking.[2],[3]
Without firm ideas of the objectives of policies, you will be hopping around very hard, empty everyone’s coffers, laboring till exhaustions yet without solving a dime of the problem.
This is the reason why there is no solutions surface for this crisis.
The outcome of not solving The Great Depression was World War II!!
The notion of a new economic order, regulated banking industries is feeble.
It is like telling people we need to change, rushing to reform, but what for, how much, to whom, where to begin, when to stop, and WHY?
The following wisdom therefore is timely, absolutely needed.
The following will set free not just governments, bankers from the shackles of unwieldy formulas.[4]
It opens new path for economists to do real, constructive, profitable research for long time to come.
It brings bankers compete on their core skills of value judgments, operation efficiency, and bring professionalism, pride back, then respect they have self-destructed will come back to them.
But most important of all - this will bring to all leader new understandings, supported by logically consistent explanations of what are the fundamentals of public policies, what are the essentials ingredients for growth!!
[1] Robert C. Merton was the first to publish a paper expanding the mathematical understanding of the options pricing model and coined the term "Black-Scholes" options pricing model, by enhancing work that was published by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. The paper was first published in 1973. The foundation for their research relied on work developed by scholars such as Louis Bachelier, A. James Boness, Sheen T. Kassouf, Edward O. Thorp, and Paul Samuelson. The fundamental insight of Black-Scholes is that the option is implicitly priced if the stock is traded.
Merton and Scholes received the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics for this and related work. Though ineligible for the prize because of his death in 1995, Black was mentioned as a contributor by the Swedish academy. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes)
[2] “Fallacy of Modern Thinking”, Jan 2003, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[3] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” Jun 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[4] “The Blow Up” by Bryant Urstadt, Technology Review, Nov-Dec, 2007, is an interesting article to read how these financial engineers, on Aug 8, 2007, were questioning themselves after the darkest summer in decades, in The World Financial Center, Merrill Lynch, New York.
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
But why it goes wrong for such a long time, escalated to such scale, what to do, how to do it, no one else seems to have an answer, logical answer, less so effective, all encompassing solutions.
There is no one, other than from this source, has the capacity to talk about how to bring growth back to the world economy!
Basically, with the coming of computers, lead economists, such as Paul Samuelson, Black, Sholes, Merton, have been pursuing some exoteric – Brownian Motions, Ants Walk, Random walk.
They have impressed the practitioners with unwieldy formula. [1]
Politicians, leaders, even professional bankers were then led into wilderness.
Earlier, inventors of these exoteric – Physicists, have realized these are feeble studies - after years of lost in wilderness.
Physicists went back to basics - to predict motion, you must understand how the system behaves then apply the right forces.
What guided scientists is the immense order of nature, so focus is on how nature behave.
What they contributed is they discover orders amidst countless uncertainties, so profitable inventions, billionaires, jobs plentiful.
Have you heard of any respected Physicists talking about Ant Walks?
The bankers, the legislators, the capitalists must learn from Scientists, such as this interesting dialog between Prof Yang Da Li (when he was Director of East Asia Institute, Singapore) with Chinese Premier Wen (Engineer - geology), 2008.
Yang : “With the escalating prices of property, do you release more land for construction?”
“You are the specialist, I am the government of a nation. My focus, my responsibility is to ensure that poor men have accommodations.” Wen said calmly.
Now, with the real estate bubbles burst globally, Premier Wen’s wisdom of looking at fundamental needs of a society, a harmonious society contrasting favorable over hard labor, feeble labor of academicians, even Nobel Economic Prize winners.
This is a precious experience every leader, would be leader must seriously ponder!
If you focus on facts, on indices, then not only you are late into happening, you may not have identified the causes, the complexity and priority, what are appropriate solutions, what are the ultimate objectives of policy.
This is the critical failure in today’s thinking.[2],[3]
Without firm ideas of the objectives of policies, you will be hopping around very hard, empty everyone’s coffers, laboring till exhaustions yet without solving a dime of the problem.
This is the reason why there is no solutions surface for this crisis.
The outcome of not solving The Great Depression was World War II!!
The notion of a new economic order, regulated banking industries is feeble.
It is like telling people we need to change, rushing to reform, but what for, how much, to whom, where to begin, when to stop, and WHY?
The following wisdom therefore is timely, absolutely needed.
The following will set free not just governments, bankers from the shackles of unwieldy formulas.[4]
It opens new path for economists to do real, constructive, profitable research for long time to come.
It brings bankers compete on their core skills of value judgments, operation efficiency, and bring professionalism, pride back, then respect they have self-destructed will come back to them.
But most important of all - this will bring to all leader new understandings, supported by logically consistent explanations of what are the fundamentals of public policies, what are the essentials ingredients for growth!!
[1] Robert C. Merton was the first to publish a paper expanding the mathematical understanding of the options pricing model and coined the term "Black-Scholes" options pricing model, by enhancing work that was published by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. The paper was first published in 1973. The foundation for their research relied on work developed by scholars such as Louis Bachelier, A. James Boness, Sheen T. Kassouf, Edward O. Thorp, and Paul Samuelson. The fundamental insight of Black-Scholes is that the option is implicitly priced if the stock is traded.
Merton and Scholes received the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics for this and related work. Though ineligible for the prize because of his death in 1995, Black was mentioned as a contributor by the Swedish academy. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes)
[2] “Fallacy of Modern Thinking”, Jan 2003, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[3] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” Jun 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[4] “The Blow Up” by Bryant Urstadt, Technology Review, Nov-Dec, 2007, is an interesting article to read how these financial engineers, on Aug 8, 2007, were questioning themselves after the darkest summer in decades, in The World Financial Center, Merrill Lynch, New York.
Dynamite Economy 4.3 Policies’ Objective
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The whole economy hit stagnation – as it stands today, big employers like auto industries make great loses; cheapest of all factor of production - oil giants dominated size and their profits need the effort of more than Fortune top 130 to support!![1]
Saving a bank, even the whole banking industry is feeble, when energy for operations is so high, when there is no one, even mighty technology, able to drive economy.
Over supplies of labor, brains, wealth are the root causes of today’s problem.[2]
Wealth creation by itself is feeble, because no matter how immense is the wealth created, it can never fill the insatiable greed’s of human.
We must find human limitation to mitigate human desire.
Therefore, policies must address these issues in two fundamental, yet overriding elements:
1. Freeing Up Free Market - to improve market efficiency.
2. Put the Growth Engine Back - Guide the brains, labor mostly engaged in constructive activities.
On the ground, they are realistic, practically achievable in shorter time frame.
On higher ground, they are not only tangible; they are also politically and economically popular.
Not only they address the issue that technology no longer adequate to drive economy, it also channels the greed-motivated energy, all into building something for the better of the greater community, away from fabrications, exploitation, destructions, even self-destructions.
We shall address them in that order.
[1] This analysis did not include all financial institutions, General Electric, for the valuations of these entities are doubtful, as events still unfolding in front of all.
[2] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The whole economy hit stagnation – as it stands today, big employers like auto industries make great loses; cheapest of all factor of production - oil giants dominated size and their profits need the effort of more than Fortune top 130 to support!![1]
Saving a bank, even the whole banking industry is feeble, when energy for operations is so high, when there is no one, even mighty technology, able to drive economy.
Over supplies of labor, brains, wealth are the root causes of today’s problem.[2]
Wealth creation by itself is feeble, because no matter how immense is the wealth created, it can never fill the insatiable greed’s of human.
We must find human limitation to mitigate human desire.
Therefore, policies must address these issues in two fundamental, yet overriding elements:
1. Freeing Up Free Market - to improve market efficiency.
2. Put the Growth Engine Back - Guide the brains, labor mostly engaged in constructive activities.
On the ground, they are realistic, practically achievable in shorter time frame.
On higher ground, they are not only tangible; they are also politically and economically popular.
Not only they address the issue that technology no longer adequate to drive economy, it also channels the greed-motivated energy, all into building something for the better of the greater community, away from fabrications, exploitation, destructions, even self-destructions.
We shall address them in that order.
[1] This analysis did not include all financial institutions, General Electric, for the valuations of these entities are doubtful, as events still unfolding in front of all.
[2] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
Dynamite Economy 4.4 Freeing Up Free Market[1]
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
Nationalized businesses are deemed unpopular - because the able, articulate are deprived of chances of operating key businesses - big, ever-green, all penetrating, businesses.
But when business turns sour, it is these people demanding bail out from the states.
Again, this underlined when it concerns personal benefit, wisdom, actions comes earlier.
Is there mechanism to ensure private operators maximize efficiency over maximizing profits to further interest of public? – None.
How many nations seen the tariff dropped after privatize?
Singapore has two private operators operating the Mass Transit Railways.
A while after into operations, the wise leader Lee Kuan Yew questioned:
Where is the competition when they are operating on two different corridors?
Where is the economy of scale when similar machineries are operated, maintained by two entities?
In general, even after privatized, private operators asked for deregulations.
After deregulation, we face a monster of troubles that even states by themselves cannot contain, even the world cooperated together, cannot overcome.
Nationalized and Privatized are just white and black cats – both share chances of successes, failures.
Nationalized can be examined by domestic voters and international observers.
Private Enterprises, not only we do not know who actually committed the act, very often what is the cause also cannot be made certain – as this instant of financial crisis speak loud at our face.
Many a time, the government lost competence in understanding the operations.
“ Is government capable to regulate?” Many bankers, even central bankers have asked aloud! [2]
When we are focusing on surface facts, without insight of market dynamics, without understanding the underlying purpose AND overall objectives - The swing between nationalized and privatized, regulated and free, monopoly and multiple operators will never come to any good answers!
The sole objective of free market economy is to improve Market Efficiency – from supply to demand.
The key factors are – improve economy of scale, reduce agency costs.
The bottlenecks are intermediaries.
The measurable are accountabilities, transparency, losses!
Only with such fundamental definition of the purpose of Free Market -
Can we really define and prioritize objectives, before policies, solutions can be formulated!
[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
[2] It is widely known that even Fed believed bankers are better in assessment of market risk, etc.
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause
Nationalized businesses are deemed unpopular - because the able, articulate are deprived of chances of operating key businesses - big, ever-green, all penetrating, businesses.
But when business turns sour, it is these people demanding bail out from the states.
Again, this underlined when it concerns personal benefit, wisdom, actions comes earlier.
Is there mechanism to ensure private operators maximize efficiency over maximizing profits to further interest of public? – None.
How many nations seen the tariff dropped after privatize?
Singapore has two private operators operating the Mass Transit Railways.
A while after into operations, the wise leader Lee Kuan Yew questioned:
Where is the competition when they are operating on two different corridors?
Where is the economy of scale when similar machineries are operated, maintained by two entities?
In general, even after privatized, private operators asked for deregulations.
After deregulation, we face a monster of troubles that even states by themselves cannot contain, even the world cooperated together, cannot overcome.
Nationalized and Privatized are just white and black cats – both share chances of successes, failures.
Nationalized can be examined by domestic voters and international observers.
Private Enterprises, not only we do not know who actually committed the act, very often what is the cause also cannot be made certain – as this instant of financial crisis speak loud at our face.
Many a time, the government lost competence in understanding the operations.
“ Is government capable to regulate?” Many bankers, even central bankers have asked aloud! [2]
When we are focusing on surface facts, without insight of market dynamics, without understanding the underlying purpose AND overall objectives - The swing between nationalized and privatized, regulated and free, monopoly and multiple operators will never come to any good answers!
The sole objective of free market economy is to improve Market Efficiency – from supply to demand.
The key factors are – improve economy of scale, reduce agency costs.
The bottlenecks are intermediaries.
The measurable are accountabilities, transparency, losses!
Only with such fundamental definition of the purpose of Free Market -
Can we really define and prioritize objectives, before policies, solutions can be formulated!
[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
[2] It is widely known that even Fed believed bankers are better in assessment of market risk, etc.
Dynamite Economy 4.4.1 Non-Factor of Productions (Financial Instruments)
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The invents of Black, Scholes and the like are creating instruments whose values are not subjected to real market supply and demand, but by formulas, but by human decision makings.
Human decision-makings, when not subjected to the immense law of nature is as good as fiction, - subjected to human greed and inadequacy, promise riches beyond dreams, yet deliver horrors beyond hell.
This has failed the very basic of measurable, all three of them – accountabilities, transparency, while losses are as good as pouring good money into a bottomless pit.
“Sorry sir, your investment is now worth nothing!” as one banker told an old man who put his life long savings in Lehman’s instruments.
Derivatives, Collaterals, Options are fabrications of human, expose no facet to be measured, stand on no ground to be realizable, while the values and prices detached from each other.
Did they channel the wealth, even a fraction of the whole sum, into any real wealth creations?
NO!
Therefore these are not critical to market functioning – they can be eliminated.
With Market slumps, investors withdrawing, this is the best time States joining hands together to dissolve all these activities.
With slow down in economy, helping economy to grow is the highest priority.
Therefore transaction credibility, improving efficiency, economy of scales, while cutting agencies’ costs are what can be done, must be done.
Before this window opened, it was already recommended to start with banking, finance, basic insurance, health care.[1]
With this window opened, we can now cover cashless, electronics transactions.
These will create a lot of constructive jobs for programmers(who other wise may become hackers), accountants, engineers(who otherwise may become traders).
Which one created real wealth?
Which is a more sustainable path?
Which one mitigate crimes, before happening?
Which one provide self-esteemed and gains others’ respect?
[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The invents of Black, Scholes and the like are creating instruments whose values are not subjected to real market supply and demand, but by formulas, but by human decision makings.
Human decision-makings, when not subjected to the immense law of nature is as good as fiction, - subjected to human greed and inadequacy, promise riches beyond dreams, yet deliver horrors beyond hell.
This has failed the very basic of measurable, all three of them – accountabilities, transparency, while losses are as good as pouring good money into a bottomless pit.
“Sorry sir, your investment is now worth nothing!” as one banker told an old man who put his life long savings in Lehman’s instruments.
Derivatives, Collaterals, Options are fabrications of human, expose no facet to be measured, stand on no ground to be realizable, while the values and prices detached from each other.
Did they channel the wealth, even a fraction of the whole sum, into any real wealth creations?
NO!
Therefore these are not critical to market functioning – they can be eliminated.
With Market slumps, investors withdrawing, this is the best time States joining hands together to dissolve all these activities.
With slow down in economy, helping economy to grow is the highest priority.
Therefore transaction credibility, improving efficiency, economy of scales, while cutting agencies’ costs are what can be done, must be done.
Before this window opened, it was already recommended to start with banking, finance, basic insurance, health care.[1]
With this window opened, we can now cover cashless, electronics transactions.
These will create a lot of constructive jobs for programmers(who other wise may become hackers), accountants, engineers(who otherwise may become traders).
Which one created real wealth?
Which is a more sustainable path?
Which one mitigate crimes, before happening?
Which one provide self-esteemed and gains others’ respect?
[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 4.4.2 Key Factors of Productions (Commodities)
Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The world is now tightly integrated - suppliers supply to any consumer in any corner of the world.
Any major shortage of key supply will impact everyone.
Key factors of productions (commodities) affect economy deeper, faster, broader than non-factor of production (financial instruments).
If traders are not suppliers and consumers, certainly there must be significant potential profits to make before anyone will participate in such nerve wrenching sports.
If there are significant profits to be made by unrelated parties, then there is significant costs, losses, leakage from the real supply-demand chain.
This is free willing adventure at the cost of free market efficiency!
Now we examine if such transactions be essential for free market operations?
First we examine modern history, even in most terrifying disasters, with advanced technology, transportations, communication, the world community indeed come together, release from the silos, mitigate the sufferings, within hours.
But, if we read the commodities future markets for last six years, future contract quadruples, while notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.[1]
These drastic increases in size, frequencies, values in such a very short time window - testified it is not due to real supply, truthful consumption.
There is no shortage of supply of major commodities - there is no mountain, which cannot be overcome, between supply and demand, even in disasters stricken areas.
Future, derivatives trading of commodities not only has not contributed to market efficiency, in fact it delayed free market operations, weaken supply-demand connectivity - it added many hands intermediate, obstacles legal and beyond senses, cost expressed and hidden.
And that goes Free Market !
The commodities Future, Derivatives Trading are therefore not only unnecessary;
They are harmful to free market operations – therefore can be and must be eliminated.
No private, unaccounted privates should trade, stock, hog excessive commodities.
It is the duty of states, democratic or otherwise, market driven or otherwise, to stockpile for the event of catastrophes – natural disasters, or human mistakes, to look for silos when bumper harvest.
No one can imagine such drastic change of market order can be achieved, though many already thinking about this for decades.
However, with poor outlook of world economy, with little chances of making windfall profits, traders will be happy to be relieved of their baggage.
This must be done now, when everyone is worried about own basket of instruments, with no hope of taking a fraction worth home.
This is exactly the window for overcoming, that we must capitalize to overcome.
Therefore, to improve market efficiency, through better flow of information and economy of scale, states should help commodities industries to establish efficient, credible global connections between supplier and consumers.
With computer network, with audited real supply and real monies, free market economy indeed can be made into realities very fast, very reliable – when accountabilities, transparency with minimum delays, losses and leakages mostly removed.
Scale down, terminates all future, derivative trading, while letting existing future contracts and their derivatives expire.
The outcomes:
First, it will free up the people burdened with the baggage, looking for doors to escape, deals to bail out.
Second, it will make all traders more accountable of their actions, hone their product knowledge and become responsible actors that facilitate free market operations.
Then
Third, it will improve commodity trading efficacy (only real suppliers and consumers), effectiveness (focus on direct and speedy trading backed by product knowledge, abandon academic formulas, Nobel laureates’ calculus) AND efficiency (remove speculative fluctuation and agency costs.)
And above all
Fourth, release a few trillion book values dollars engaged in counter productive, heart-wrenching activities.
Resulting in
Fifth, a major source of real, urgently needed liquidity for growing real economy and healthier, happier, meaningful life for traders.
This is indeed freeing up free market – all activities are about real supply and real demand.
This is in fact the applications of strict discipline in research by western scientists – all facts experimented and measured, audited and apply, remove intermediaries, always making simpler, more direct – higher efficiency means bigger profit, proliferate, mass-produced - bring about industrializations, bring about billionaires.
Every action supported by logic, facts and real supply and demand.
Every movement with a real objective to improve efficiency, to satisfy needs.
In managing material side of society, we need such approach.
[1] “Of Froth and Fundamentals” Oct, 17, 2008, Economists - According to Barclays Capital, Institutional Investors had around $270 billion in commodities-linked investment at end of June 2008 from $10 billion six years ago. Yet the future contracts quadrupled since 2001, and notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
The world is now tightly integrated - suppliers supply to any consumer in any corner of the world.
Any major shortage of key supply will impact everyone.
Key factors of productions (commodities) affect economy deeper, faster, broader than non-factor of production (financial instruments).
If traders are not suppliers and consumers, certainly there must be significant potential profits to make before anyone will participate in such nerve wrenching sports.
If there are significant profits to be made by unrelated parties, then there is significant costs, losses, leakage from the real supply-demand chain.
This is free willing adventure at the cost of free market efficiency!
Now we examine if such transactions be essential for free market operations?
First we examine modern history, even in most terrifying disasters, with advanced technology, transportations, communication, the world community indeed come together, release from the silos, mitigate the sufferings, within hours.
But, if we read the commodities future markets for last six years, future contract quadruples, while notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.[1]
These drastic increases in size, frequencies, values in such a very short time window - testified it is not due to real supply, truthful consumption.
There is no shortage of supply of major commodities - there is no mountain, which cannot be overcome, between supply and demand, even in disasters stricken areas.
Future, derivatives trading of commodities not only has not contributed to market efficiency, in fact it delayed free market operations, weaken supply-demand connectivity - it added many hands intermediate, obstacles legal and beyond senses, cost expressed and hidden.
And that goes Free Market !
The commodities Future, Derivatives Trading are therefore not only unnecessary;
They are harmful to free market operations – therefore can be and must be eliminated.
No private, unaccounted privates should trade, stock, hog excessive commodities.
It is the duty of states, democratic or otherwise, market driven or otherwise, to stockpile for the event of catastrophes – natural disasters, or human mistakes, to look for silos when bumper harvest.
No one can imagine such drastic change of market order can be achieved, though many already thinking about this for decades.
However, with poor outlook of world economy, with little chances of making windfall profits, traders will be happy to be relieved of their baggage.
This must be done now, when everyone is worried about own basket of instruments, with no hope of taking a fraction worth home.
This is exactly the window for overcoming, that we must capitalize to overcome.
Therefore, to improve market efficiency, through better flow of information and economy of scale, states should help commodities industries to establish efficient, credible global connections between supplier and consumers.
With computer network, with audited real supply and real monies, free market economy indeed can be made into realities very fast, very reliable – when accountabilities, transparency with minimum delays, losses and leakages mostly removed.
Scale down, terminates all future, derivative trading, while letting existing future contracts and their derivatives expire.
The outcomes:
First, it will free up the people burdened with the baggage, looking for doors to escape, deals to bail out.
Second, it will make all traders more accountable of their actions, hone their product knowledge and become responsible actors that facilitate free market operations.
Then
Third, it will improve commodity trading efficacy (only real suppliers and consumers), effectiveness (focus on direct and speedy trading backed by product knowledge, abandon academic formulas, Nobel laureates’ calculus) AND efficiency (remove speculative fluctuation and agency costs.)
And above all
Fourth, release a few trillion book values dollars engaged in counter productive, heart-wrenching activities.
Resulting in
Fifth, a major source of real, urgently needed liquidity for growing real economy and healthier, happier, meaningful life for traders.
This is indeed freeing up free market – all activities are about real supply and real demand.
This is in fact the applications of strict discipline in research by western scientists – all facts experimented and measured, audited and apply, remove intermediaries, always making simpler, more direct – higher efficiency means bigger profit, proliferate, mass-produced - bring about industrializations, bring about billionaires.
Every action supported by logic, facts and real supply and demand.
Every movement with a real objective to improve efficiency, to satisfy needs.
In managing material side of society, we need such approach.
[1] “Of Froth and Fundamentals” Oct, 17, 2008, Economists - According to Barclays Capital, Institutional Investors had around $270 billion in commodities-linked investment at end of June 2008 from $10 billion six years ago. Yet the future contracts quadrupled since 2001, and notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.
Dynamite Economy 5 - Put the Growth Engines Back
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
After industrial revolution and rail way stagnated, we had World War I.
After radio, auto industries stagnated, we had The Great Depression, then World War II.
Human are animals needed to be tamed, guided to perform constructive work, else brutality, catastrophe are the outcome.
As stated clearly, after technology no longer adequate to drive economy.
Today, we have excessive brains, labor, from Advanced Nations, China, India.[1]
So Growth Engines we need now must have the magnitude, latitude to keep occupy the thinkers and doers, engineers and artists, rural and urban, oriental and occidentals.
There are at least 8 industries that will meet these comprehensive requirements.
Listed are three examples to stimulate thinking by the world, leading all out of the long dark tunnel.
These are based on the revelation that
“The only constant change for Civilization is to integrate
Greater Number of People, from Greater Diversities, Deeper, Broader, Faster, More Frequently”
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
After industrial revolution and rail way stagnated, we had World War I.
After radio, auto industries stagnated, we had The Great Depression, then World War II.
Human are animals needed to be tamed, guided to perform constructive work, else brutality, catastrophe are the outcome.
As stated clearly, after technology no longer adequate to drive economy.
Today, we have excessive brains, labor, from Advanced Nations, China, India.[1]
So Growth Engines we need now must have the magnitude, latitude to keep occupy the thinkers and doers, engineers and artists, rural and urban, oriental and occidentals.
There are at least 8 industries that will meet these comprehensive requirements.
Listed are three examples to stimulate thinking by the world, leading all out of the long dark tunnel.
These are based on the revelation that
“The only constant change for Civilization is to integrate
Greater Number of People, from Greater Diversities, Deeper, Broader, Faster, More Frequently”
Globalpolis 2006, Solvere
After people around the world are connected via technology, yet we still face very immense challenges, with very tight time window to achieve breakthrough.
After careful ponder, we merely need to take a step back and look broader:
Integrate not just people with people
But also machines with people, nature with people[2], machine with nature[3]
“Aimless to Win” 2008, Solvere
[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[2] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com
[3] “Patents – Rally more forces of nature” www.cts-ideas.com
Dynamite Economy 5.1 Energy Solvere[1]
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
In the report by McKinsey, it is said that by 2025, 95% of Chinese GDP will come from cities.[2]
There was no justification, scientific, statistical justification on such precise conclusions. McKinsey definitely has not understood that industries, even combined with suburbs around cities no longer able to drive economy. While commerce, dominated today by banking and finance, not only could not energize economy, in fact is the center focus of today’s economic woes.
It is important to realize that today, the challenge is to create employment, billions are from rural areas. They are the main concern of wise leaders, in particular Chinese leaders.
If they can be actively involved in wealth creations, then not only the greatest disaster since The Great Depression can be solved, more:
When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.
Today, agricultural produces do not see significant gap between supply and demand.
Therefore, based on today approach, there is no solutions for solving rural poverties.
As predicted, without philosophical breakthrough, MIT President Susan Hockfield’s inaugural pledge of solving energy problems, did not come to fruition.
Here, is the breakthrough:
The notion of burning the purest 1 gram of alcohol for energy and left with 1kg of carbon rich residue not only is costly, unsustainable, it is in fact no policy can be more wrong than this.
We shall use
1. The best of agricultural produce for food.
2. Next for animal and industrial feedstock.
3. Then for packaging and construction material.
4. Only the useless waste, contaminated, dead, plagues, wormed burnt for energy.[3]
Not only the same plot of land can have multiple income, it also reduces labors, investment, cost of waste treatment.
Not only fertile land are fully developed, thorns in deserts, algae in warmed up water found economy to support the effort of fighting expansion of deserts, global warming.
Not only farmers found wealth creation avenues, machineries industries found new sector to process waste for packaging, construction materials. This is much needed in the lack luster, seemingly sunset industries.
Only by integrating with the immense order of nature, rally forces of nature, immense wealth will be created.
When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.
This is the integration of man with nature.
[1] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com
[2] “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2008.
[3] “Direct Thermal Transport” is a Patent Pending invention that rally more forces of nature to faciliate, perturbate, accelerate physical, chemical, biological, nuclear reactions, not limited to combustion. Its brief is in USPTO or “Patents – Rally More Forces of Nature” www.cts-ideas.com
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
In the report by McKinsey, it is said that by 2025, 95% of Chinese GDP will come from cities.[2]
There was no justification, scientific, statistical justification on such precise conclusions. McKinsey definitely has not understood that industries, even combined with suburbs around cities no longer able to drive economy. While commerce, dominated today by banking and finance, not only could not energize economy, in fact is the center focus of today’s economic woes.
It is important to realize that today, the challenge is to create employment, billions are from rural areas. They are the main concern of wise leaders, in particular Chinese leaders.
If they can be actively involved in wealth creations, then not only the greatest disaster since The Great Depression can be solved, more:
When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.
Today, agricultural produces do not see significant gap between supply and demand.
Therefore, based on today approach, there is no solutions for solving rural poverties.
As predicted, without philosophical breakthrough, MIT President Susan Hockfield’s inaugural pledge of solving energy problems, did not come to fruition.
Here, is the breakthrough:
The notion of burning the purest 1 gram of alcohol for energy and left with 1kg of carbon rich residue not only is costly, unsustainable, it is in fact no policy can be more wrong than this.
We shall use
1. The best of agricultural produce for food.
2. Next for animal and industrial feedstock.
3. Then for packaging and construction material.
4. Only the useless waste, contaminated, dead, plagues, wormed burnt for energy.[3]
Not only the same plot of land can have multiple income, it also reduces labors, investment, cost of waste treatment.
Not only fertile land are fully developed, thorns in deserts, algae in warmed up water found economy to support the effort of fighting expansion of deserts, global warming.
Not only farmers found wealth creation avenues, machineries industries found new sector to process waste for packaging, construction materials. This is much needed in the lack luster, seemingly sunset industries.
Only by integrating with the immense order of nature, rally forces of nature, immense wealth will be created.
When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.
This is the integration of man with nature.
[1] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com
[2] “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2008.
[3] “Direct Thermal Transport” is a Patent Pending invention that rally more forces of nature to faciliate, perturbate, accelerate physical, chemical, biological, nuclear reactions, not limited to combustion. Its brief is in USPTO or “Patents – Rally More Forces of Nature” www.cts-ideas.com
Dynamite Economy 5.2 Building Automation (Yi-Dian)
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
Look at your desk, Computer, Camera, Phone, Speakers, Displays all are connected, connected easily.
They present you with history, science, technology, arts, connecting you with family, friends, clients even competitors.
Machines are indeed connected.
What is not connected remains very obscure unless we have mastery of technology, history.
Now think deeper, observer keener - to turn a fan, to dim a lamp, to soft a music, to switch a station, you face with choices of manual switches, unwieldy remote controls, what are not mentioned are spaghetti of wires, under concrete conduits, power adapters……
Building Automation as implemented by the world giants, at Bill Gates villa are following the mainframe approach of more complexity to perform even the same tasks.
Mainframe did not bring the world forward into a connected world. So IBM faded away, while Intel, Telcos contributed.
When most devices become electronics, we found power adapters almost on every power-outlet, with lighting replaced by LEDs.
Supply electricity from generators hundreds of miles away, through a high-tension cable, even over your house have proven to be costly, even fatal, like the blizzards in Canada, Snow Storms in sub-tropical Southern China.
There is an interest group for distributed power system, but there is no mention about building automation.
There are numerous building automation initiatives, even standards, where are they now? i only heard of Siemens retrenched a significant portions of employees.
To make a significant improvement, we must have holistic thinking, practical solutions.
To make an improvement well received, it must have economic savings, profits, ease of use…..
To make great profits is feeble to the current world situations, if you cannot create immense jobs.
This is the solution – “Yi-Dian” PointOnce in Chinese
Applications - Yi-Dian –using a pointing device to operate all devices, from simple on-off-diming operations of light to sophisticated complex operations of plant and machineries. This is intuitive and easy to connect with all electronics, electrical, mechanical systems. Therefore the size, spans are significant.
Buildings[1] - Yi-Dian – Type of Buildings capitalized on today’s system, mostly low voltage, so the commercialization period is shorter, installation is easier, cheaper, safer. It can be easily adapted for even most delicate ancient monuments. So it opens market for all buildings planning through to antiquated buildings, from residential, through to industrial.
Fault Tolerant - Yi-Dian at low voltage, will seamlessly connect to miniature windmills, photovoltaic, new and old batteries. This will not just reduce peak demand on the power grid, it will also provide a safe, fault tolerant system in face of great disasters.
Job Creations - Yi-Dian as low voltage, user-friendly system, it will create jobs for not just electricians, also carpenter, mason, architects, designers, engineers, system integrators, artists, movie directors…. This will open not just for metropolis, also for rural areas, for post disaster temporary shelters as well as ancient monuments. This is the only industry of such immense size that can only be limited by imaginations of people.
What about the biggest low voltage system designer, manufacturers – Auto-industries do they need a life line?
What about Electrical-Electronics industries, Plastics, Construction industries?
We need industrial standards to be established before opening for the world to share, so that immense growth can come at a rapid pace.
So details are not released.
This is the integration of machine with human.
[1] Patent to file on how to carry low voltage, high current in eco-friendly buildings, building materials.
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
Look at your desk, Computer, Camera, Phone, Speakers, Displays all are connected, connected easily.
They present you with history, science, technology, arts, connecting you with family, friends, clients even competitors.
Machines are indeed connected.
What is not connected remains very obscure unless we have mastery of technology, history.
Now think deeper, observer keener - to turn a fan, to dim a lamp, to soft a music, to switch a station, you face with choices of manual switches, unwieldy remote controls, what are not mentioned are spaghetti of wires, under concrete conduits, power adapters……
Building Automation as implemented by the world giants, at Bill Gates villa are following the mainframe approach of more complexity to perform even the same tasks.
Mainframe did not bring the world forward into a connected world. So IBM faded away, while Intel, Telcos contributed.
When most devices become electronics, we found power adapters almost on every power-outlet, with lighting replaced by LEDs.
Supply electricity from generators hundreds of miles away, through a high-tension cable, even over your house have proven to be costly, even fatal, like the blizzards in Canada, Snow Storms in sub-tropical Southern China.
There is an interest group for distributed power system, but there is no mention about building automation.
There are numerous building automation initiatives, even standards, where are they now? i only heard of Siemens retrenched a significant portions of employees.
To make a significant improvement, we must have holistic thinking, practical solutions.
To make an improvement well received, it must have economic savings, profits, ease of use…..
To make great profits is feeble to the current world situations, if you cannot create immense jobs.
This is the solution – “Yi-Dian” PointOnce in Chinese
Applications - Yi-Dian –using a pointing device to operate all devices, from simple on-off-diming operations of light to sophisticated complex operations of plant and machineries. This is intuitive and easy to connect with all electronics, electrical, mechanical systems. Therefore the size, spans are significant.
Buildings[1] - Yi-Dian – Type of Buildings capitalized on today’s system, mostly low voltage, so the commercialization period is shorter, installation is easier, cheaper, safer. It can be easily adapted for even most delicate ancient monuments. So it opens market for all buildings planning through to antiquated buildings, from residential, through to industrial.
Fault Tolerant - Yi-Dian at low voltage, will seamlessly connect to miniature windmills, photovoltaic, new and old batteries. This will not just reduce peak demand on the power grid, it will also provide a safe, fault tolerant system in face of great disasters.
Job Creations - Yi-Dian as low voltage, user-friendly system, it will create jobs for not just electricians, also carpenter, mason, architects, designers, engineers, system integrators, artists, movie directors…. This will open not just for metropolis, also for rural areas, for post disaster temporary shelters as well as ancient monuments. This is the only industry of such immense size that can only be limited by imaginations of people.
What about the biggest low voltage system designer, manufacturers – Auto-industries do they need a life line?
What about Electrical-Electronics industries, Plastics, Construction industries?
We need industrial standards to be established before opening for the world to share, so that immense growth can come at a rapid pace.
So details are not released.
This is the integration of machine with human.
[1] Patent to file on how to carry low voltage, high current in eco-friendly buildings, building materials.
Dynamite Economy 5.3 Dotted Giga City (.G)
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
Greater integration of people is the core driving force and key manifestation of progress in civilization.
Most major breakthroughs happened, or even conceived in cities.
As environmental technology progress, we have built cities of up to 10 million population, usually formed by clusters of population centers in close proximities.
It is natural that 100 million metropolis formed by clusters of cities will be happening, as the distance of daily transport escalated as a result of higher speed transits.
But other than highways, mass transits, skyscrapers, there is no breakthroughs for decades.
We need to look deeper.
When I proposed to Presidential candidates to invest in infrastructure rejuvenations, Henry Paulson, an investment banker, naturally think it is too slow.
However, today, he has to admit even a few hundred billions rapid cash injections still will take long time to heal the economy. Do we see healing starting?
Today, the purpose is not to design bigger, more fanciful metropolis.
Today, is just like post agrarian renaissance, is to take detailed studies of forces of nature, discover order of nature, to bring about elegant solutions.
It is only this way will keep the brains, labors busy, occupied in constructive activities.
It is this way that we can use less material, energy, space and yet bring the elegant, efficient connections among more people, while immersed ourselves in the beautiful sight, fragrance, sound, caress of nature.
This will need a long series.
A hint:
It is the detailed studies, numerous experiments that brought about elegant, simple, sleek, strong Gothic Arches.
Today, even aerospace bearing races uses this arch to support the precision, high speed rotating machineries.
Must, we must, open our sensors, humble ourselves to the intricate order of nature so that we can tap even a bit of immense forces of nature, will change our society, our economy by a great deals.[1]
This is integration of Human with the Environment.
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause
Greater integration of people is the core driving force and key manifestation of progress in civilization.
Most major breakthroughs happened, or even conceived in cities.
As environmental technology progress, we have built cities of up to 10 million population, usually formed by clusters of population centers in close proximities.
It is natural that 100 million metropolis formed by clusters of cities will be happening, as the distance of daily transport escalated as a result of higher speed transits.
But other than highways, mass transits, skyscrapers, there is no breakthroughs for decades.
We need to look deeper.
When I proposed to Presidential candidates to invest in infrastructure rejuvenations, Henry Paulson, an investment banker, naturally think it is too slow.
However, today, he has to admit even a few hundred billions rapid cash injections still will take long time to heal the economy. Do we see healing starting?
Today, the purpose is not to design bigger, more fanciful metropolis.
Today, is just like post agrarian renaissance, is to take detailed studies of forces of nature, discover order of nature, to bring about elegant solutions.
It is only this way will keep the brains, labors busy, occupied in constructive activities.
It is this way that we can use less material, energy, space and yet bring the elegant, efficient connections among more people, while immersed ourselves in the beautiful sight, fragrance, sound, caress of nature.
This will need a long series.
A hint:
It is the detailed studies, numerous experiments that brought about elegant, simple, sleek, strong Gothic Arches.
Today, even aerospace bearing races uses this arch to support the precision, high speed rotating machineries.
Must, we must, open our sensors, humble ourselves to the intricate order of nature so that we can tap even a bit of immense forces of nature, will change our society, our economy by a great deals.[1]
This is integration of Human with the Environment.
[1] “Patents – Rally More Forces of Nature” www.cts-ideas.com, provide examples of how building designs, drainage designs, processes can be significantly improved by understanding more of order of nature.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
For Pakistani and all People of the world
on Dec 27, 2007, former Prime Minister Benazir Butto met an assanitation and died.
This speech was prepared and delivered on Dec 28, 2007, for President Pervez Musharraf (In office 20 June 2001 – 18 August 2008) .
This speech is recommended to be released to share with the world how nations, big or small, powerful or feeble, will face, if there is no strong, able, credible leadership - elected, inherited, colonized, or otherwise.
The released is secured on Oct 6, 2008.
This writer is not a proponent of any particular system, for human can easily craft, device and overcome even the best system.
Therefore help your government to govern well, identify flaws and improve upon, identify opportunities and labor on .
Any one who dream of best system, shall not leave the bed, so realities of world they face not, crafts of men they endure not.
Any government who is unwise, not listening, has to improve.
For no one will have the allegence, commit and perseverence than your country man.
Dear Fellow Pakistani
this nation is facing threats, not from our brothers, sisters, but from others, who have interest in our wealth, our position, as a gate way to our neighbors.
human do not fight for ideals, they fight for survival or fight for profits.
what we see in front of us, is again another example.
many of our leaders were killed in the course of performing duties to hold this nation together,
to bring better life for our fellow country men.
some succeeded, some failed.
but no matter, they succeeded, or failed, some were sacrificed in the most brutal manner.
Fellow Pakistani
i do not preach high ideals, for i know without power, without solidarity as a nation, we cannot survived.
this not only happen for a nation like Pakistan
this happen to all nations, even America, China.
Foreign Secretary Lord Horrowby in 1804 told Madison,
“The pretention advanced by Mr. Madison that American Flag would protect every individual sailing under it on board of a merchant ship is too extravagance to require any serious refutation.”
Fellow Pakistani
you are not on board a armored battle ship
you are on open field
not just Ms Bhutto is in open field, i am also in open field.
we have our share of threats, though we have come out differently,
i am facing the same, if not worse threats.
How American sailors, merchant ship are safer, not because the world is less brutal, because American has the ability to protect his people on high seas.
Fellow Country man
do not jump to conclusion what is a good system, what is not.
first we must unite together, to have a nation that is respected by the world,
not just from governments, but also unlawful organization.
then we can live our life safe, and in peace.
Fellow Country man
i cannot promise you i can remove threat over night
but i can promise you, i will work with every one, with me or against me,
to bring all of us together, focusing on creating jobs, producing wealth,
than fighting for this position, that system.
Positions have been vacated by many who died on their call of duties.
Systems have been manipulated by many, all around the world, to benefit their friends.
no position is powerful
no system is perfect
only we see the welfare of every one,
to let every one focus on gainful employment,
we are better.
only when we help each other to cooperate,
to produce better environment for ourselves, for our children
can we say we are happy, we are peaceful
when we (this President - recommended to be replaced by we) retired in old age.
we will do the best to investigate the cause, the perpetrator,
and will do our best to put them under justice.
but this cannot protect us from threats
we must be united and help each other
then no one can pose any threat to us,
every one of us, not fame and rich,
but commoners in cities, in villages
i will do my best as your President
i listen to your yearning for a peaceful living
i will do my best
but i need your support
let us focus on cooperation and generate wealth
while our armed forces, police hold the weapon to protect us for further threats
i plead to you
let us remain silence for 3 minutes for Ms Bhutto and many before her,
who sacrificed their life to seek the ideals.
This speech was prepared and delivered on Dec 28, 2007, for President Pervez Musharraf (In office 20 June 2001 – 18 August 2008) .
This speech is recommended to be released to share with the world how nations, big or small, powerful or feeble, will face, if there is no strong, able, credible leadership - elected, inherited, colonized, or otherwise.
The released is secured on Oct 6, 2008.
This writer is not a proponent of any particular system, for human can easily craft, device and overcome even the best system.
Therefore help your government to govern well, identify flaws and improve upon, identify opportunities and labor on .
Any one who dream of best system, shall not leave the bed, so realities of world they face not, crafts of men they endure not.
Any government who is unwise, not listening, has to improve.
For no one will have the allegence, commit and perseverence than your country man.
Due to layers, this was not presented in time to secure serenity.
Dear Fellow Pakistani
this nation is facing threats, not from our brothers, sisters, but from others, who have interest in our wealth, our position, as a gate way to our neighbors.
human do not fight for ideals, they fight for survival or fight for profits.
what we see in front of us, is again another example.
many of our leaders were killed in the course of performing duties to hold this nation together,
to bring better life for our fellow country men.
some succeeded, some failed.
but no matter, they succeeded, or failed, some were sacrificed in the most brutal manner.
Fellow Pakistani
i do not preach high ideals, for i know without power, without solidarity as a nation, we cannot survived.
this not only happen for a nation like Pakistan
this happen to all nations, even America, China.
Foreign Secretary Lord Horrowby in 1804 told Madison,
“The pretention advanced by Mr. Madison that American Flag would protect every individual sailing under it on board of a merchant ship is too extravagance to require any serious refutation.”
Fellow Pakistani
you are not on board a armored battle ship
you are on open field
not just Ms Bhutto is in open field, i am also in open field.
we have our share of threats, though we have come out differently,
i am facing the same, if not worse threats.
How American sailors, merchant ship are safer, not because the world is less brutal, because American has the ability to protect his people on high seas.
Fellow Country man
do not jump to conclusion what is a good system, what is not.
first we must unite together, to have a nation that is respected by the world,
not just from governments, but also unlawful organization.
then we can live our life safe, and in peace.
Fellow Country man
i cannot promise you i can remove threat over night
but i can promise you, i will work with every one, with me or against me,
to bring all of us together, focusing on creating jobs, producing wealth,
than fighting for this position, that system.
Positions have been vacated by many who died on their call of duties.
Systems have been manipulated by many, all around the world, to benefit their friends.
no position is powerful
no system is perfect
only we see the welfare of every one,
to let every one focus on gainful employment,
we are better.
only when we help each other to cooperate,
to produce better environment for ourselves, for our children
can we say we are happy, we are peaceful
when we (this President - recommended to be replaced by we) retired in old age.
we will do the best to investigate the cause, the perpetrator,
and will do our best to put them under justice.
but this cannot protect us from threats
we must be united and help each other
then no one can pose any threat to us,
every one of us, not fame and rich,
but commoners in cities, in villages
i will do my best as your President
i listen to your yearning for a peaceful living
i will do my best
but i need your support
let us focus on cooperation and generate wealth
while our armed forces, police hold the weapon to protect us for further threats
i plead to you
let us remain silence for 3 minutes for Ms Bhutto and many before her,
who sacrificed their life to seek the ideals.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Dynamite Economy 3 Summary for Deadly Urgency
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 – Summary for Deadly Urgency
What we see today, collapsing, chain collapsing of financial institutions, like a dominos. The root causes have been discerned as early as 2001,[1] since then, time, scale, together with cause, effect, wrong solutions and resolutions have been detailed.
Financial industries depends on the economy at large, this reflect also the economy at large.
By 2000, innovation came to a halt, economy, predominantly technology-led economy definitely come to stagnation. No new, significant industries has been racing for listing, investment bankers face over-capacity.
However, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) has been cumulated that find no profitable ventures. Negative interest rate and war were predicted then. So they were.
Negative Interest rates are fabrications.
Fabrication has no limit, so free wheeling of fabrication escalated till stand stark as most profitable, biggest employers, in 2007.
To inject Well Governed Funds to Free Private Hands, in the market flooded with OAW, is analogous to inject sugar into diabetics. It will clog the arteries, impair physical body, and caused stroke, paralyze. Again it has been forewarned. It was taken note, but not acted adequately.[2],[3],[4] The situation today, is the outcome – parallel to The Great Depression.
The said reference to Japanese similar rescue in the 1990 by her Financial Service Minister of State Yoshimi Watanabe, is irrelevant. Unlike America, Japanese was a smaller economy and did not lead all the major fields of industries. The funds latter were quickly absorbed into new immense industries - the internet, mobile communications expansions - the most rapid technology-economic expansion in history. There was no impact to commodities prices that sink the economy, as we see today.
Free Private Hands, is subjected to no governance, no obligation to facilitate the bigger picture. When they are over-endowed with OAW, they move from financial instruments (which are not factor of production) to commodities (key factors of productions). When bank call for liquidity, OAW in private hands has no obligation to response, this is Credit Crunch in OAW. This is worse than stagflation, because stagflation is merely a phenomenon spanning private, public sectors. While OAW overloaded in private, ungoverned hands, is a dynamite-clogged arteries, clogging every passage of economic activities – material, transport, communication.
Many drew parallel to The Great Depression.
No one has mentioned of its sequel – WWII.
This may be because after two major campaigns, no one can foresee mighty power will commit another.
However, today real weapons and virtual tools while multiplied in power, are miniaturized in size and within the access of private, many faceless people. Without visibility, governance, accountability, the damage will be much bigger, wide spread, unpredictable, uncontrollable. The damage will be far beyond the sequel of The Great Depression – WWII.
With globalization, with weaken, poorer governments, the outcome will be worse than WWII.
So before we foolishly empty nations’ vaults, weaken governments, we must act to prevent such tragedy from happening.
Here, practical solutions, that take priority to address the nature of human is presented, supported by technology, invention, apply with philosophical depth.
To mop up the OAW from Free Private Hands is the right approach.
To create new industries, in innovative way, immediately implementable is prescribed.
The outcome will be to bring
1. millions urbanities and billions rural farmers busy creating wealth,
2. to keep them occupy, so that even their insatiable nature is fulfilled, because
3. their vigor is engaged in meaningful, profitable engagement.
The Fed, the Treasuries may think such fundamental approach take too long, but the correct treatment for all serious ailments took long time, arduous effort, patient to heal.
Taking any quick approach, like pouring well govern funds into OAW market, is like helicopter dropping of dynamite into wild fire, when even the last plant has lost water - dried up. The outcome is obvious, destruction, violent destructions. You see your delivery, but others experience the death, burnt and torn bodies, while no one actually is saved – the spread ensure no one can escape, no spot for the pilot to land!
But if you understand human nature, once a good, effective policy is conceived, the market confidence swing before the policy is fine tuned, approved, implemented. People start to move, faster, more decisively, than legislature, executive branches – when there is profit to make.
So the Fed and Treasuries, together with world leaders must improve not just their understanding of economy, also
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 – Summary for Deadly Urgency
What we see today, collapsing, chain collapsing of financial institutions, like a dominos. The root causes have been discerned as early as 2001,[1] since then, time, scale, together with cause, effect, wrong solutions and resolutions have been detailed.
Financial industries depends on the economy at large, this reflect also the economy at large.
By 2000, innovation came to a halt, economy, predominantly technology-led economy definitely come to stagnation. No new, significant industries has been racing for listing, investment bankers face over-capacity.
However, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) has been cumulated that find no profitable ventures. Negative interest rate and war were predicted then. So they were.
Negative Interest rates are fabrications.
Fabrication has no limit, so free wheeling of fabrication escalated till stand stark as most profitable, biggest employers, in 2007.
To inject Well Governed Funds to Free Private Hands, in the market flooded with OAW, is analogous to inject sugar into diabetics. It will clog the arteries, impair physical body, and caused stroke, paralyze. Again it has been forewarned. It was taken note, but not acted adequately.[2],[3],[4] The situation today, is the outcome – parallel to The Great Depression.
The said reference to Japanese similar rescue in the 1990 by her Financial Service Minister of State Yoshimi Watanabe, is irrelevant. Unlike America, Japanese was a smaller economy and did not lead all the major fields of industries. The funds latter were quickly absorbed into new immense industries - the internet, mobile communications expansions - the most rapid technology-economic expansion in history. There was no impact to commodities prices that sink the economy, as we see today.
Free Private Hands, is subjected to no governance, no obligation to facilitate the bigger picture. When they are over-endowed with OAW, they move from financial instruments (which are not factor of production) to commodities (key factors of productions). When bank call for liquidity, OAW in private hands has no obligation to response, this is Credit Crunch in OAW. This is worse than stagflation, because stagflation is merely a phenomenon spanning private, public sectors. While OAW overloaded in private, ungoverned hands, is a dynamite-clogged arteries, clogging every passage of economic activities – material, transport, communication.
Many drew parallel to The Great Depression.
No one has mentioned of its sequel – WWII.
This may be because after two major campaigns, no one can foresee mighty power will commit another.
However, today real weapons and virtual tools while multiplied in power, are miniaturized in size and within the access of private, many faceless people. Without visibility, governance, accountability, the damage will be much bigger, wide spread, unpredictable, uncontrollable. The damage will be far beyond the sequel of The Great Depression – WWII.
With globalization, with weaken, poorer governments, the outcome will be worse than WWII.
So before we foolishly empty nations’ vaults, weaken governments, we must act to prevent such tragedy from happening.
Here, practical solutions, that take priority to address the nature of human is presented, supported by technology, invention, apply with philosophical depth.
To mop up the OAW from Free Private Hands is the right approach.
To create new industries, in innovative way, immediately implementable is prescribed.
The outcome will be to bring
1. millions urbanities and billions rural farmers busy creating wealth,
2. to keep them occupy, so that even their insatiable nature is fulfilled, because
3. their vigor is engaged in meaningful, profitable engagement.
The Fed, the Treasuries may think such fundamental approach take too long, but the correct treatment for all serious ailments took long time, arduous effort, patient to heal.
Taking any quick approach, like pouring well govern funds into OAW market, is like helicopter dropping of dynamite into wild fire, when even the last plant has lost water - dried up. The outcome is obvious, destruction, violent destructions. You see your delivery, but others experience the death, burnt and torn bodies, while no one actually is saved – the spread ensure no one can escape, no spot for the pilot to land!
But if you understand human nature, once a good, effective policy is conceived, the market confidence swing before the policy is fine tuned, approved, implemented. People start to move, faster, more decisively, than legislature, executive branches – when there is profit to make.
So the Fed and Treasuries, together with world leaders must improve not just their understanding of economy, also
the very purpose of their function – wealth creation
only wisdom will bring peaceful, progressive, prospering world
while brute force, foolishness
using wealth to destroy wealth creating engine
resulting in depression, retardation, poverty of even the richest
Choose the sections relevant to save the world from worse than WWII.
Dynamite Economy 3 Summary for Deadly Urgency
Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude
Dynamite Economy 3.2 Cognized before Happening
Dynamite Economy 3.3 What has Happened
Dynamite Economy 3.4 How Faults Initiate?
Dynamite Economy 3.5 Who is at Fault?
Dynamite Economy 3.6 Wisdom from History
Dynamite Economy 3.7 Where can we be heading
Dynamite Economy 3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?
Dynamite Economy 3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy
Dynamite Economy 3.10 Importance of Human Motivation
Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry (relevant to education, health care, insurance…
Dynamite Economy 3.12 Approach – Essential Commodities
Dynamite Economy 3.99 Deadly Urgency
[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” April 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom.” ISBN-9810-513757
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries.
[4] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” , Nov 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries.
[4] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” , Nov 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf
Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.1 Magnitude
Within months, American injected, injecting in total exceeding US$905 billions just to save a few major financial corporations, while leaving numerous others behind, never mind about other industries, nations.
This sum is the size of
1. World 14th economy – GDP of 21 million (11million labor force) Australians in 2007; OR
2. 13,000 pieces of Boeing 737 (more than double Boeing has produced - 5,815 since 1968[1]); OR
3. 1.3 time total profit of 2008 Fortune Global 100, employed 22 million DIRECT workforce; OR
4. 22 times the budget of Beijing 2008, good for Olympic games right into next century.
The differences are:
1. the injections was within months compare to year, or decades of good hard work
2. even it may moderate the indebtedness of few, it does not improve, for even one entity, the very dire situation they are embroiled.
3. even it may delay a few hundred thousands job losses, it may not secure them in the long term, never mind about create a single job.
The mid to long term effect for improving economy, does not exist
This comparison is depressing.
The scale demand the world to unite together to resolve.
This represent we need superior wisdom, strong leadership to resolve.
America remains the leader, sole leader of new industry creation, economy leadership
Americans have to lead, to improve world economic situation
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.1 Magnitude
Within months, American injected, injecting in total exceeding US$905 billions just to save a few major financial corporations, while leaving numerous others behind, never mind about other industries, nations.
This sum is the size of
1. World 14th economy – GDP of 21 million (11million labor force) Australians in 2007; OR
2. 13,000 pieces of Boeing 737 (more than double Boeing has produced - 5,815 since 1968[1]); OR
3. 1.3 time total profit of 2008 Fortune Global 100, employed 22 million DIRECT workforce; OR
4. 22 times the budget of Beijing 2008, good for Olympic games right into next century.
The differences are:
1. the injections was within months compare to year, or decades of good hard work
2. even it may moderate the indebtedness of few, it does not improve, for even one entity, the very dire situation they are embroiled.
3. even it may delay a few hundred thousands job losses, it may not secure them in the long term, never mind about create a single job.
The mid to long term effect for improving economy, does not exist
This comparison is depressing.
The scale demand the world to unite together to resolve.
This represent we need superior wisdom, strong leadership to resolve.
America remains the leader, sole leader of new industry creation, economy leadership
Americans have to lead, to improve world economic situation
America, the most resource and market dependent nation
A world in strife has been proven not a wise choice
for the profit of the most powerful nation!
I shall provide the key motivation and causes analysis, AND solutions, supported by consistent, accurate, precise prediction, prescriptions made since 2001.[2]
Dynamite Economy 3.2 Cognized before Happening
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.2 Cognized before Happening
What we see today, have been forewarned, in 2001, to the leaders of Singapore and her technology leader, whom i expected to lead sovereign fund.[1] Stated clearly was that technology no longer able to drive economy, economy will hit stagnation. (Since then Technology companies, one by one, dropped out from top 10 listings. Today, 2008, even GE ranked 12.)
Technology cumulated wealth found no place to invest, interest rate will go into negative, which is pure fabrication - the impact will be unprecedented. War will take place (in a separate, now no longer sensitive submission – Afghan was identified as the first battle field.[2])
Aug 13, 2007,[3] witnessed the lack of understanding of economy by leaders – the fundamental driving forces for economy. Stated clearly, that among top corporations of the world, Finance and Energy overwhelmed the whole economy with revenue size (29%, 25%, total more than 50%), profit (41%, 31%, total almost 75%), AND profit margin of 9%. Banks being a lubricant for market economy, such profit margins can only be fabrication, cannot be sustained. (So by today, Sep 2008, a year latter, THREE out of top FIVE investment banks collapse.) Energy should be the cheapest among all key factors of productions. At such magnitude and profit margin, all business will not survive.
Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries, “Energy Solvere”[4] was presented as one among a battery of eight new industries that will energize economy again. Also clearly stated that pumping well governed sovereign funds into free private hands to rescue banks, will spread turmoil from non-factor of production(financial instruments) to key factors of production (energy, commodities, grains).
Nov 12, 2007[5], after monitoring the scale of intervention from international sovereign funds, I stated clearly that together with other key factor of production, oil and gold will exceed $120 and $1000 respectively in a few months time. This will pull the carpet under all business’ survivals.
Gold hit $1000 on Mar 17, 2008. Oil hit $120 on May 5, 2008, manifestations of serious impact all around the world, including transport workers went on strikes, airlines cut operations. This testifies $120 is a critical point for most business survival. Oil peaked at $147 on Jul 11 2008, and dived to $94 today (Sept 17, 2008). Violent up and down swing prices may be, damages it has caused to world economy are definitely unprecedented, severe, the sufferings – long, prolonged.
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.2 Cognized before Happening
What we see today, have been forewarned, in 2001, to the leaders of Singapore and her technology leader, whom i expected to lead sovereign fund.[1] Stated clearly was that technology no longer able to drive economy, economy will hit stagnation. (Since then Technology companies, one by one, dropped out from top 10 listings. Today, 2008, even GE ranked 12.)
Technology cumulated wealth found no place to invest, interest rate will go into negative, which is pure fabrication - the impact will be unprecedented. War will take place (in a separate, now no longer sensitive submission – Afghan was identified as the first battle field.[2])
Aug 13, 2007,[3] witnessed the lack of understanding of economy by leaders – the fundamental driving forces for economy. Stated clearly, that among top corporations of the world, Finance and Energy overwhelmed the whole economy with revenue size (29%, 25%, total more than 50%), profit (41%, 31%, total almost 75%), AND profit margin of 9%. Banks being a lubricant for market economy, such profit margins can only be fabrication, cannot be sustained. (So by today, Sep 2008, a year latter, THREE out of top FIVE investment banks collapse.) Energy should be the cheapest among all key factors of productions. At such magnitude and profit margin, all business will not survive.
Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries, “Energy Solvere”[4] was presented as one among a battery of eight new industries that will energize economy again. Also clearly stated that pumping well governed sovereign funds into free private hands to rescue banks, will spread turmoil from non-factor of production(financial instruments) to key factors of production (energy, commodities, grains).
Nov 12, 2007[5], after monitoring the scale of intervention from international sovereign funds, I stated clearly that together with other key factor of production, oil and gold will exceed $120 and $1000 respectively in a few months time. This will pull the carpet under all business’ survivals.
Gold hit $1000 on Mar 17, 2008. Oil hit $120 on May 5, 2008, manifestations of serious impact all around the world, including transport workers went on strikes, airlines cut operations. This testifies $120 is a critical point for most business survival. Oil peaked at $147 on Jul 11 2008, and dived to $94 today (Sept 17, 2008). Violent up and down swing prices may be, damages it has caused to world economy are definitely unprecedented, severe, the sufferings – long, prolonged.
[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” April 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom.” ISBN-9810-513757
[2] Tracking the speeches of the Singapore leader, before Shanghai Communique, Mid 2001.
[3] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[4] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!
[5] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” , Nov 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf
Dynamite Economy 3.3 What has Happened
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
Dynamite Economy
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
Dynamite Economy
Sep 17, 2008, within the last 50 hours, two out of four top investment banks AND one of world largest insurers collapsed. This is not the beginning, neither do we see a pause in sight. It is just a moment in a long sequence, a rapid sequence, a rapid sequence without a pause, a rapid sequence of Dynamites detonating, spare no country, spare no industry, spare no leaders, differentiate not poor or rich man, hurting every social fabric.
Within the last 100 days or so, fifth ranking investment banks together with two largest mortgage companies fallen. Oil prices hit the predicted mark of $120 on May 5, 2008, struggles for survival started to be felt around the world, strikes of transport workers, airlines cut operations are some indicators.
Even with such time window for rethinking, elaborate deliberation, free from official position, the former Federal Chairman, Allan Greenspan, both US Presidential candidates, only state what is already obvious to all – greatest disaster in 100 years, worse than The Great Depression, etc, without analysis, never mind about causes, impacts, solutions. The criterions for rescue considerations, were poorly uttered …..
From the following reports, we see that economists, bankers without basic understanding of market, economy, made wrong statement, almost all of the time, even late into events.
2007 March 14, “Subprime alone won't sink Wall Street bankers” “SUBPRIME CRASH: It may not be fatal, but it can be painful” USA Today, Lehman Bros, told investors during its quarterly earnings call that its exposure to such loans is minimal. That came a day after Goldman Sachs reported strong quarterly results despite any troubles in its subprime mortgage business.
2007 May 17, “Bernanke Believes Housing Mess Contained” Forbes reported.
2007 July 18, “Same Old Ben with a Dash of Subprime” Forbes reported Ben Bernanke concern subprime
What has becomes obvious are:
1. Three out of top five investment bankers already failed.
2. Immense sum of well governed sovereign funds that equivalent to the labor product of one full year of labor by 11 million Australian work force, or the highly skill to sell double the number of 737 jets since 1968, is going to poured into the market, without adding one jobs, without producing any goods and services.
3. Before this, smaller token of such injection, already escalated commodities prices to a level that pull the carpet under all business survival – Oil prices exceeded $120 that whole world felt physical choked.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Dynamite Economy 3.4 How Faults Initiate?
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.4 How Faults Initiate?
No nation can function well without great leaders.
No economy can sustain without healthy fundamentals.
From Dynamite Economy 3.3 we know that:
Economists, without discern of the basics of economy, while tightly coupled to their doctrines
over stated their effectiveness, under-stated the problems !
This is the very problem, Economists who yearn to be key contributors to society
must admit, must improve, must overcome !!
Here they are:
It is when technological innovation reached a plateau, industrialization no longer able to drive economy. We need new engines for growth!
It is when industrialization cumulated an immense scale of wealth, no new, significant industry was invented, this wealth becomes over abundance, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW), just like a hyperactive strong man without meaningful employment, will inflict more severe damage than small babies, hungry men.
We need new industries!
When the size of integration of civilization changed from nations to global village,
nations cannot contain problem by themselves.
Nations need cooperation from others, every nation.
We need new realm of thinking!
None has happened, so seed of disaster buds, grew, destructing, devastating!!
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.4 How Faults Initiate?
No nation can function well without great leaders.
No economy can sustain without healthy fundamentals.
From Dynamite Economy 3.3 we know that:
Economists, without discern of the basics of economy, while tightly coupled to their doctrines
over stated their effectiveness, under-stated the problems !
This is the very problem, Economists who yearn to be key contributors to society
must admit, must improve, must overcome !!
Here they are:
It is when technological innovation reached a plateau, industrialization no longer able to drive economy. We need new engines for growth!
It is when industrialization cumulated an immense scale of wealth, no new, significant industry was invented, this wealth becomes over abundance, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW), just like a hyperactive strong man without meaningful employment, will inflict more severe damage than small babies, hungry men.
We need new industries!
When the size of integration of civilization changed from nations to global village,
nations cannot contain problem by themselves.
Nations need cooperation from others, every nation.
We need new realm of thinking!
None has happened, so seed of disaster buds, grew, destructing, devastating!!
Dynamite Economy3.5 Who is at Fault?
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.5 Who is at Fault?
To resolve any issues, we must seek the causes.
For such unprecedented scale, unprecedented spread, as Dynamite Economy, we must also understand the very motivation forces that effected these causes into affecting whole world economy.
But the spread, magnitude determined that even there is a person, a group, an industry that is liable for this disaster, the greater environment allowed it to exist, propagate, proliferate, eventually almost everyone participated, so affected.
To assign fault to anyone, is so very easy, is definitely possible.
In this situation that demand unity, if we focus on fault assignment, will only divide the people, divert the resources.
We cannot afford it, can we?
Even everyone is at fault,
Even so,
we must objectively study every wrong move,
1. Not just the effect, but the broader, deeper impacts.
2. Not just the causes, but the immense motivation forces behind that bring these effects to cause series of over whelming failures.
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.5 Who is at Fault?
To resolve any issues, we must seek the causes.
For such unprecedented scale, unprecedented spread, as Dynamite Economy, we must also understand the very motivation forces that effected these causes into affecting whole world economy.
But the spread, magnitude determined that even there is a person, a group, an industry that is liable for this disaster, the greater environment allowed it to exist, propagate, proliferate, eventually almost everyone participated, so affected.
To assign fault to anyone, is so very easy, is definitely possible.
In this situation that demand unity, if we focus on fault assignment, will only divide the people, divert the resources.
We cannot afford it, can we?
Even everyone is at fault,
Even so,
we must objectively study every wrong move,
1. Not just the effect, but the broader, deeper impacts.
2. Not just the causes, but the immense motivation forces behind that bring these effects to cause series of over whelming failures.
Dynamite Economy 3.6 Wisdom from History
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.6 Wisdom from History
Historically, when agrarian communes matured into feudal states, without necessary wisdom to drive economy, when power of communes become inadequate to survive, while organizing into feudal states was an experiment, great philosophical thinking came side by side with centuries of bloody conflicts.
Today, when the world has evolved from sovereign states into global village,
with borders fading away,
without learning from history, without philosophical depth,
we would easily repeat what those great philosophers failed to mitigate -
ceaseless blood flowing battle fields, of east, of west.
But we journeyed thousand years of journey,
we have integrated wisdom of west, of east, of intuition, of analysis.
We must prevent bloodshed, strife, even hardship, suffering from furthering,
while we gracefully migrate into a tightly integrated global commune.
The Great Depression, brought up only World War Two,
only a few states had mighty power,
only a few exceptional leaders can pull the triggers. A
nd they can be found guilty,
and in fact few war criminals were executed.
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.6 Wisdom from History
Historically, when agrarian communes matured into feudal states, without necessary wisdom to drive economy, when power of communes become inadequate to survive, while organizing into feudal states was an experiment, great philosophical thinking came side by side with centuries of bloody conflicts.
Today, when the world has evolved from sovereign states into global village,
with borders fading away,
without learning from history, without philosophical depth,
we would easily repeat what those great philosophers failed to mitigate -
ceaseless blood flowing battle fields, of east, of west.
But we journeyed thousand years of journey,
we have integrated wisdom of west, of east, of intuition, of analysis.
We must prevent bloodshed, strife, even hardship, suffering from furthering,
while we gracefully migrate into a tightly integrated global commune.
The Great Depression, brought up only World War Two,
only a few states had mighty power,
only a few exceptional leaders can pull the triggers. A
nd they can be found guilty,
and in fact few war criminals were executed.
Dynamite Economy 3.7 Where can we be heading
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.7 Where can we be heading
Today, with more powerful weapons, miniaturized, store in private bunkers belongs unknown.
Today, with connected world, some unknown can monitor, adulterate from a far, prices can be justified by mathematics model that pack junks and sell you for a good fortune, respectfully and legally. Most transactions, the only record is in one computer, which can be easily adulterated yet cannot be fully protected, audited.
Today, Globalized business made businessmen richer than nations, Lawyers smarter than legislators, bad management, misadventure, corporate failures, can demand support from nations.
The scale, spread of calamity, will be beyond World War II.
Sovereign Nations cannot act alone.
Just like post agrarian commune, while experimenting Feudal States was not ready to effectively govern. Great Philosophers came too late.
We need global cooperation, governance, yet Global Cooperation, Governance, Leadership are yet ready.
Without immediate action to create massive industries, to keep everyone bus
Without global order to manage businesses
The rapid escalation of immense wealth, brains power, fire power in free private hands
Will bring about unprecedented chaos
Compare to what can come, if we do not solve it, effectively now!
Barings, Enron, Societ General, WWII are just small plays!
Solutions, immediate, practical, this engineer, inventor, philosopher has prepared for nations with different situation.
Sharing this understanding, joining our wisdom and might
We shall carve, record the future into a happier history!
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.7 Where can we be heading
Today, with more powerful weapons, miniaturized, store in private bunkers belongs unknown.
Today, with connected world, some unknown can monitor, adulterate from a far, prices can be justified by mathematics model that pack junks and sell you for a good fortune, respectfully and legally. Most transactions, the only record is in one computer, which can be easily adulterated yet cannot be fully protected, audited.
Today, Globalized business made businessmen richer than nations, Lawyers smarter than legislators, bad management, misadventure, corporate failures, can demand support from nations.
The scale, spread of calamity, will be beyond World War II.
Sovereign Nations cannot act alone.
Just like post agrarian commune, while experimenting Feudal States was not ready to effectively govern. Great Philosophers came too late.
We need global cooperation, governance, yet Global Cooperation, Governance, Leadership are yet ready.
Without immediate action to create massive industries, to keep everyone bus
Without global order to manage businesses
The rapid escalation of immense wealth, brains power, fire power in free private hands
Will bring about unprecedented chaos
Compare to what can come, if we do not solve it, effectively now!
Barings, Enron, Societ General, WWII are just small plays!
Solutions, immediate, practical, this engineer, inventor, philosopher has prepared for nations with different situation.
Sharing this understanding, joining our wisdom and might
We shall carve, record the future into a happier history!
Dynamite Economy 3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?
It is wrong, Why?
First, by injecting funds, does not change the dire situation this Enterprise is in.
Second, the whole world economy is in grave trouble, saving even all of Fortune 100 is not enough.
Third, injecting well governed funds to rescue, the effort is arduous, the effect of rescue is small,
the repercussion is shown here:
Sep 16, 2008 AIG, the biggest Insurance Group declared great losses, price drop from US$79 a year ago to $1.25. Not a world wide household name but a typical shrewd businessman, Oei Hong Leong bought 1 million share. The Fed gave a US$85b loan. The price escalated to $3.75 end of same day. Oei could easily move into his Free Private Hand more than double his original.
Immense money dispensed from Well Governed Sovereign Fund
Where they actually sink into?
How much money actually help the economy?
Where will myajory be used for?
Oei donated the shares to LKY School of Public Policy[1]
This solution is wrong, fundamentally wrong, so fundamental that injecting wealth into the market with Over Abundance Wealth, is as idiotic as injecting Sugar into Diabetics.
As pre-warned,[2],[3] by H1, 2008, after well governed sovereign funds, in smaller measure, were injected to rescue smaller failures, the impacted no longer limited to Non-factor of Production (financial instruments), Key-Factor of Production (energy, minerals, grains) sky-rocketed. It pulled the carpet of survival under all businesses.
With even small, initial injection of fund into Free Private Hand, has already overheated Energy, Commodities Prices!
The Carpet of survival for all Businesses, was pulled.
With such immense injection
we will be seeing Oil climbing up to $200 in few months time.
Which industries can survive?
How many employees will loss their livelihood?
With skills, brains, accesses, with earlier knowledge of failures, with no hope of next jobs
Major failures will come also from lawful slips, crimes, even for healthy organization.
Enron, Barings, Societ Generale will be child play overshadowed by more, bigger, countless fiasco?
[1] Lee Kuan Yew, Sep 16, 1923 - ; Founder of Singapore, among the contemporary of post anti-colonial era world leaders, led colonies , independent, THE ONLY who led progressed from Third World to First.
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” Nov 12, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?
It is wrong, Why?
First, by injecting funds, does not change the dire situation this Enterprise is in.
Second, the whole world economy is in grave trouble, saving even all of Fortune 100 is not enough.
Third, injecting well governed funds to rescue, the effort is arduous, the effect of rescue is small,
the repercussion is shown here:
Sep 16, 2008 AIG, the biggest Insurance Group declared great losses, price drop from US$79 a year ago to $1.25. Not a world wide household name but a typical shrewd businessman, Oei Hong Leong bought 1 million share. The Fed gave a US$85b loan. The price escalated to $3.75 end of same day. Oei could easily move into his Free Private Hand more than double his original.
Immense money dispensed from Well Governed Sovereign Fund
Where they actually sink into?
How much money actually help the economy?
Where will myajory be used for?
Oei donated the shares to LKY School of Public Policy[1]
This solution is wrong, fundamentally wrong, so fundamental that injecting wealth into the market with Over Abundance Wealth, is as idiotic as injecting Sugar into Diabetics.
As pre-warned,[2],[3] by H1, 2008, after well governed sovereign funds, in smaller measure, were injected to rescue smaller failures, the impacted no longer limited to Non-factor of Production (financial instruments), Key-Factor of Production (energy, minerals, grains) sky-rocketed. It pulled the carpet of survival under all businesses.
With even small, initial injection of fund into Free Private Hand, has already overheated Energy, Commodities Prices!
The Carpet of survival for all Businesses, was pulled.
With such immense injection
we will be seeing Oil climbing up to $200 in few months time.
Which industries can survive?
How many employees will loss their livelihood?
With skills, brains, accesses, with earlier knowledge of failures, with no hope of next jobs
Major failures will come also from lawful slips, crimes, even for healthy organization.
Enron, Barings, Societ Generale will be child play overshadowed by more, bigger, countless fiasco?
Paralyze of world economy is a definite outcome!
[1] Lee Kuan Yew, Sep 16, 1923 - ; Founder of Singapore, among the contemporary of post anti-colonial era world leaders, led colonies , independent, THE ONLY who led progressed from Third World to First.
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” Nov 12, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf
Dynamite Economy 3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy
Certainly there are many solutions, ineffective, many worsen problems, some caused fatality.
There is no perfect solution, with more cooperation, synergy among diverse strength-wisdom, new revelation shall come, all solutions shall be improved upon.
Characters for Correct Policy are:
In this case:
1. Immediate - Rejuvenate infrastructure[1], this
a) Mop up OAW in private hand
c) Resulting in escalated demand,
(i) integrate businesses,
(ii) reduce cost of business operations,
(iii) magnify economy of scale.[2] (US$ 900 billions can create a lot of activities, can employ more than 11 millions.)[3]
2. Mid Term - create new industries that will employ Billions for real value-adding activities.[4]
Successful policy is not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.
Great Successes, Satisfaction are not for followers of situation
This is a problem that Sovereign Nations need Global Cooperation to overcome！
[1] This was proposed to McCaine campaign, Jan 18, 2008. Huckebee used it, Ben Bernanke first think it takes too long, latter included in his plan.
[2] To know the only constant is change is feeble. “The ONLY constant change in Civilization is to INTEGRATE greater number, from greater diversities, deeper, broader, faster, more frequently”, Solvere, @Globalpolis, 2006. Transport, Communication are the key for integration, to gain economy of scale, to synergy ideas, to multiply strength. Historically, all key economy are about integration, from river transport, horse carriage, ocean sailing, rail way, auto-car, radio, telephony, computer with network, banking with network, while medicine though is key, “Aimless to Win” ISBN 9810 579043
[3] “Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude” http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab cognose.blogspot.com
[4] “Energy Solvere” http://www.cts-ideas.com/, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!
[5] 1916 Rockerfellar became first billionaire in History.
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy
Certainly there are many solutions, ineffective, many worsen problems, some caused fatality.
There is no perfect solution, with more cooperation, synergy among diverse strength-wisdom, new revelation shall come, all solutions shall be improved upon.
Characters for Correct Policy are:
- addressed the main causes,
- broad base employment,
- profitable, AND
- promote business efficiency, reach
In this case:
1. Immediate - Rejuvenate infrastructure[1], this
a) Mop up OAW in private hand
to invest in design, through to constructions, operations.
b) Create across the board, numerous jobsc) Resulting in escalated demand,
especially for those on poverty line, the first job create a lot of anxious purchases.
d) Improved efficiency,(i) integrate businesses,
(ii) reduce cost of business operations,
(iii) magnify economy of scale.[2] (US$ 900 billions can create a lot of activities, can employ more than 11 millions.)[3]
Market is not driven by what is physical, but by expectation.
Good policy will raise market confident even before it is approved,
long before it is implemented, effecting.
Bernanke think this process took too long is wrong!
2. Mid Term - create new industries that will employ Billions for real value-adding activities.[4]
Successful policy is not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.
Great Successes, Satisfaction are not for followers of situation
but for leaders that improve situation.
Effective policies are not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.
Effective policies are not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.
Successful policies are those that change the greater environment to facilitate businesses.
This is not a few Billions dollar corporate, but Billions of OAW, Brains & Labors！
This is not a few Billions dollar corporate, but Billions of OAW, Brains & Labors！
This is a problem that Sovereign Nations need Global Cooperation to overcome！
Leader who leads cooperation
will be THE Leader that bring about new stage of Civilization!!
[1] This was proposed to McCaine campaign, Jan 18, 2008. Huckebee used it, Ben Bernanke first think it takes too long, latter included in his plan.
[2] To know the only constant is change is feeble. “The ONLY constant change in Civilization is to INTEGRATE greater number, from greater diversities, deeper, broader, faster, more frequently”, Solvere, @Globalpolis, 2006. Transport, Communication are the key for integration, to gain economy of scale, to synergy ideas, to multiply strength. Historically, all key economy are about integration, from river transport, horse carriage, ocean sailing, rail way, auto-car, radio, telephony, computer with network, banking with network, while medicine though is key, “Aimless to Win” ISBN 9810 579043
[3] “Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude” http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab cognose.blogspot.com
[4] “Energy Solvere” http://www.cts-ideas.com/, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!
[5] 1916 Rockerfellar became first billionaire in History.
Dynamite Economy 3.10 Importance of Human Motivation
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.10 Importance of Human Motivation
Late 90s, Economists discussed about the situation when interest rate zero bound[1],[2]. They cannot imagine interest rate can go negative, because they understood very well number, busy with building models, they do not respect the nature of human.
In fact, as early as 1970s, holding Swiss Franc was an attractive option. Foreigners were given negative interest rate to hold this privileged currency.
January 24, 2003, Friday, normal Japanese domestic interest rates went negative. Banks lent money on that night and accepted back a smaller amount on Monday morning. Banks have too much money from the mighty works of Morita-Matsushita generation. Cheap money overshadowed the reality – dearth of real wealth creating engines for investing, economy definitely stagnated, Japan lost her eminence, economy remain at the valley for almost a decade now.
If we understand nature of human, these are not only reasonable acts, these acts indeed are predictable, from the basic instincts of investors’ unpretentious positioning to reduce losses, to multiply profits.
If we look at only number, without satisfying human's nature of profit seeking, without invigorating the economy, how can present severe, complex problems be addressed correctly, even partially?
Will not partial anesthesia impair progressive movement?
Will not cosmetic surgery weaken the patients?
Will not incorrect solutions bring more harm?
To avoid the worse than WWII from unfolding
To solve this complex, deadly urgent problem with certainty, effectiveness, efficiency,
We need to satisfy the nature of human, even seemingly insatiable!
[1] “Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era” September 1999, David Reifschneider and John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551, david.l.reifschneider@frb.gov jwilliams@frb.gov
[2] “Price Stability and Monetary Policy Eectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero” June 1998, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.10 Importance of Human Motivation
Late 90s, Economists discussed about the situation when interest rate zero bound[1],[2]. They cannot imagine interest rate can go negative, because they understood very well number, busy with building models, they do not respect the nature of human.
In fact, as early as 1970s, holding Swiss Franc was an attractive option. Foreigners were given negative interest rate to hold this privileged currency.
January 24, 2003, Friday, normal Japanese domestic interest rates went negative. Banks lent money on that night and accepted back a smaller amount on Monday morning. Banks have too much money from the mighty works of Morita-Matsushita generation. Cheap money overshadowed the reality – dearth of real wealth creating engines for investing, economy definitely stagnated, Japan lost her eminence, economy remain at the valley for almost a decade now.
If we understand nature of human, these are not only reasonable acts, these acts indeed are predictable, from the basic instincts of investors’ unpretentious positioning to reduce losses, to multiply profits.
If we look at only number, without satisfying human's nature of profit seeking, without invigorating the economy, how can present severe, complex problems be addressed correctly, even partially?
Will not partial anesthesia impair progressive movement?
Will not cosmetic surgery weaken the patients?
Will not incorrect solutions bring more harm?
To avoid the worse than WWII from unfolding
we need to solve this deadly urgent problem!
To solve this complex, deadly urgent problem with certainty, effectiveness, efficiency,
We need to satisfy the nature of human, even seemingly insatiable!
[1] “Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era” September 1999, David Reifschneider and John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551, david.l.reifschneider@frb.gov jwilliams@frb.gov
[2] “Price Stability and Monetary Policy Eectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero” June 1998, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry
Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.11 Approach - Finance Industry
Banks are lubricants for market economy.
Banks shall not, can never be wealth creator.
It was clearly stated in Aug 2007, that Banks making 9% profit over weak economy that barely made 1% profit is unsustainable. The big profit is through instruments, then sub-prime instruments.[1]
All the Top 5 Investment Banks has since faced the realities, except the top two still able to resist, the rest collapsed.
When there are OAW in banks clients’ pocket, the temptation is so high.
So they pretend they are wealth creator, these are fabrications, fabrication cannot be really fulfilled
Banks shoulder upon themselves promises they can never fulfill.
So dreamers’ hearts broken, banks bankrupting.
Rules of law are last resort, is late, it can be applied only after grave harm is inflicted.
Greed for profit is human nature, trying to ignore, using money to feed, law to control are feeble.
Salvaging is too late, too costly, usually the result is decimation of wealth.
So to satisfy temptation is the most important for design, for regulation.
Successful application will improve social order, for economic stability.
Banks should be divided into two categories:
First, Banks as they are remain as a conduit, a lubricant, continuously improving effectiveness, efficiency for capital formation, capital flow in the market. This category subjected to lower return, tight governance, and government backing.
Second, Investment Characters. These are avenues for higher return, naturally coupled with higher risk. No one should bank on it for survival, emergency. So they should not be called banks. The coupling of the secured character of banks with the promises of high return investment led to overwhelming popularity. Just like most euphoria, eventually brought about today’s disaster. By calling themselves Investment Characters, they make everyone aware the nature, the character of such investment – taking high risk may be rewarded handsomely. Investors take their own risk – “caveat emptor”. When it fails, there is no embankment to protect against the onslaught of storm.
The creation of this category is so very important for channeling excess capital back to the market. These are excess liquidity that is not survival critical. Failures in venture shall not be supported by government. Since they are not survival critical, the impact of failures will not affect the economy at large, surely not national stabilities, global orderliness.
US government chose to support Insurance and not Investment Banks is one great improvement in understanding, despite inadequate one, too late.
Finance Industries is not the only industry that needs this segregation, philosophical segregation.
In face of OAW, Medical cares, Education, Insurances also need such differentiating approach to differentiating for the survival essential and the comfort, pampering of the overly-endowed.
We shall divide Cosmetic Care from Essential Medical Care; Enjoyment Institutions from Scholastic pursuits, Basic Education; Wealth Protection Insurance from Disability, Retirement Pension.
With this approach, the governance of such institutions is made easier:
1. Aggregating to achieve economy of scale, in training, in facilities, in expertise.
2. Segmentation to provide premium products,
3. Dispensing of public subsidies, canvassing for support can be appropriately managed, scaled.
This is the wisdom derived from the great Western culture. Western strict disciplines, strict discipline of research brought about today’s leadership in the world, in science, in technology, in financial institutions.
Even a simple, singular transaction, we need to enter twice, one left, one right, one credit, one debit, to ensure there is accountability, accounting trails, mistakes minimized.
Even Black & Shore inspired many, very complex, very precise models, none can stand to the very basic requirements of strict science – cause and effect, measurable and repeatable. Forgotten the Western Strict Discipline in research, this cancer was allowed to grow under the eyelids of the best of Finance Industries for almost a decade, led to the collapse of world finance industries and repercussion spread through out the world.
Without addressing it now, it may bring about worse than Great Depression & World War II.
To ensure a stable, progressive, efficient economy, strict discipline in managing the essential is essential to survival, if not social serenity, if not transaction efficacy, efficiency, world order.
Every one yearn for freedom, full freedom of expression, full spectrum of fabrications, not limiting to Collaterals, Derivatives, Options, Free- willing Valuation. When one is such given, one must shoulder his own risks, and cannot count on others to bear the blunder, just like no one is entitled to taking a slice away from the pie, when it is ready, when it is tasty. This again is Western Strict Discipline of Transparency, then Accountability.
This two-prone approach provides solutions that satisfy seemingly mutually exclusive requirements –
highly secured vault for essential liquidity AND infinite free flowing cannels for excessive capital
together they shall ensure the spirit of free market principal and social good order –
Basic, critical capital flows efficiently, reliably.
no capital is stashed away from the economy
no creativities is stifled
no naive lost his sole piggy bank.
It is darkness that bring us cherish the sunrise.
It is strict disciplines that provide us the basic securities, so that we can venture beyond, venture freely, venture for high profits – even reach the unreachable stars, dreams the unrealizable dreams.
It is only when the society can provide everyone with basic securities, that society can be safe, stable, progressing.
The rich, the powerful, are the most vulnerable, in a society that is full of strife, conflicts, unemployment.
[1] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.11 Approach - Finance Industry
Banks are lubricants for market economy.
Banks shall not, can never be wealth creator.
It was clearly stated in Aug 2007, that Banks making 9% profit over weak economy that barely made 1% profit is unsustainable. The big profit is through instruments, then sub-prime instruments.[1]
All the Top 5 Investment Banks has since faced the realities, except the top two still able to resist, the rest collapsed.
When there are OAW in banks clients’ pocket, the temptation is so high.
So they pretend they are wealth creator, these are fabrications, fabrication cannot be really fulfilled
Banks shoulder upon themselves promises they can never fulfill.
So dreamers’ hearts broken, banks bankrupting.
Rules of law are last resort, is late, it can be applied only after grave harm is inflicted.
Greed for profit is human nature, trying to ignore, using money to feed, law to control are feeble.
Salvaging is too late, too costly, usually the result is decimation of wealth.
So to satisfy temptation is the most important for design, for regulation.
Successful application will improve social order, for economic stability.
Banks should be divided into two categories:
First, Banks as they are remain as a conduit, a lubricant, continuously improving effectiveness, efficiency for capital formation, capital flow in the market. This category subjected to lower return, tight governance, and government backing.
Second, Investment Characters. These are avenues for higher return, naturally coupled with higher risk. No one should bank on it for survival, emergency. So they should not be called banks. The coupling of the secured character of banks with the promises of high return investment led to overwhelming popularity. Just like most euphoria, eventually brought about today’s disaster. By calling themselves Investment Characters, they make everyone aware the nature, the character of such investment – taking high risk may be rewarded handsomely. Investors take their own risk – “caveat emptor”. When it fails, there is no embankment to protect against the onslaught of storm.
The creation of this category is so very important for channeling excess capital back to the market. These are excess liquidity that is not survival critical. Failures in venture shall not be supported by government. Since they are not survival critical, the impact of failures will not affect the economy at large, surely not national stabilities, global orderliness.
US government chose to support Insurance and not Investment Banks is one great improvement in understanding, despite inadequate one, too late.
Finance Industries is not the only industry that needs this segregation, philosophical segregation.
In face of OAW, Medical cares, Education, Insurances also need such differentiating approach to differentiating for the survival essential and the comfort, pampering of the overly-endowed.
We shall divide Cosmetic Care from Essential Medical Care; Enjoyment Institutions from Scholastic pursuits, Basic Education; Wealth Protection Insurance from Disability, Retirement Pension.
With this approach, the governance of such institutions is made easier:
1. Aggregating to achieve economy of scale, in training, in facilities, in expertise.
2. Segmentation to provide premium products,
3. Dispensing of public subsidies, canvassing for support can be appropriately managed, scaled.
This is the wisdom derived from the great Western culture. Western strict disciplines, strict discipline of research brought about today’s leadership in the world, in science, in technology, in financial institutions.
Even a simple, singular transaction, we need to enter twice, one left, one right, one credit, one debit, to ensure there is accountability, accounting trails, mistakes minimized.
Even Black & Shore inspired many, very complex, very precise models, none can stand to the very basic requirements of strict science – cause and effect, measurable and repeatable. Forgotten the Western Strict Discipline in research, this cancer was allowed to grow under the eyelids of the best of Finance Industries for almost a decade, led to the collapse of world finance industries and repercussion spread through out the world.
Without addressing it now, it may bring about worse than Great Depression & World War II.
To ensure a stable, progressive, efficient economy, strict discipline in managing the essential is essential to survival, if not social serenity, if not transaction efficacy, efficiency, world order.
Every one yearn for freedom, full freedom of expression, full spectrum of fabrications, not limiting to Collaterals, Derivatives, Options, Free- willing Valuation. When one is such given, one must shoulder his own risks, and cannot count on others to bear the blunder, just like no one is entitled to taking a slice away from the pie, when it is ready, when it is tasty. This again is Western Strict Discipline of Transparency, then Accountability.
This two-prone approach provides solutions that satisfy seemingly mutually exclusive requirements –
highly secured vault for essential liquidity AND infinite free flowing cannels for excessive capital
together they shall ensure the spirit of free market principal and social good order –
Basic, critical capital flows efficiently, reliably.
no capital is stashed away from the economy
no creativities is stifled
no naive lost his sole piggy bank.
It is darkness that bring us cherish the sunrise.
It is strict disciplines that provide us the basic securities, so that we can venture beyond, venture freely, venture for high profits – even reach the unreachable stars, dreams the unrealizable dreams.
It is only when the society can provide everyone with basic securities, that society can be safe, stable, progressing.
The rich, the powerful, are the most vulnerable, in a society that is full of strife, conflicts, unemployment.
Why should they not support such categorization?
[1] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
