Cognose

Resolving Crisis - MIT, Media, Academia to Shoulder

2011-03-16T09:44:00.000-07:00

Resolving Crisis - MIT, Media, Academia to Shoulder
2011 03 16

The combination of Earth Quake, Tsunami and FOUR failing nuclear reactors is one unprecedented.

This will be a historical crime for MIT if she is going to celebrate her 150 years anniversary by doing nothing to a crisis its mission is set up to do, her people most equipped to do !

First sadness - The world do not come together to solve it.
Second sadness - The media doing merely more artistic pictures, movies without detail analysis of what is a nuclear reactor, how to stop nuclear reactions. May be only BBC and a few Chinese site provided more technical analysis.

Biggest sadness - the academia, including MIT has been quiet, as if another BP Gulf leak.

This is not Gulf Leak, this is not even Gulf war.
This is four nuclear bombs that may explode in tandem.

This is four nuclear bombs may time to explode at the time the next earth quake, tsunami hit, and typhoon may come earlier.

Heaven is merciful, it gave us a week to rally the best.
But the media, the governments, the academicians are still not taking it seriously.
This will be the worst crime for MIT if she is going to celebrate her 150 years anniversary by doing nothing to a crisis its mission is set up to do !

This is a sad sign that leaders are falling behind media.
And media falling behind common people, commons sense.
Worst, academicians do not realize stopping Nuclear reactor cannot be like fire fighting.

Nuclear reactions is about neutrons, protons shooting at high speed at each other to create nuclear reactions, in this case fission.
How could pouring sea water into nuclear reactor stop the nuclear reaction?
How could world become so poor in understanding basic physics.

It is alright for Prime Minster Kan to get the news of explosion from the TV, hours before his staff reported to him.

But MIT, Researchers, Engineers must you not come to the front and help man kind to ward of the worst disasters initiated by nature, escalated by man made.

It is Japanese, a united, disciplined, highly educated in technology able to with stand.

But this is a world disasters, man kind challenges.

Media mobilize the world best.
Engineers, Professors come to the forefront.

i urge you.
i am with you

Solvere Lim Swee Keng
SM(MIT' 85)

www.cts-ideas.com

K1218 Bugged Ages

2010-12-18T00:37:00.000-08:00

Solvere Lim Swee Keng

2010 12 18

Today

Dynamite Economy 4 - Overcoming

2008-10-30T08:31:00.000-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause

click the link to each title...

Table of Content

Dynamite Economy 4.1 Window for Overcoming

Dynamite Economy 4.2 Free from Deadly Thinking

Dynamite Economy 4.3 Policies’ Objective

Dynamite Economy 4.4 Freeing Up Free Market
Dynamite Economy 4.4.1 Non-Factor of Productions (Financial Instruments)
Dynamite Economy 4.4.2 Key Factors of Productions (Commodities)

Dynamite Economy 5 - Put the Growth Engines Back
Dynamite Economy 5.1 Energy Solvere
Dynamite Economy 5.2 Building Automation (Yi-Dian)
Dynamite Economy 5.3 Dotted Giga City (.G)

Dynamite Economy 4.1 Window for Overcoming

2008-10-30T08:22:00.001-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause

As explained clearly, as early as 2001, what we face today is not merely a banking industry issues, not merely an economic issues, this is about the stagnation of economy.

After rapid technology advancement over the last 30 years, innovation stagnated. Technology found no ability to create sizable new industries, resulting in Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) cumulated, over supply of labor, brains that found no place to invest. [1]，[2]，[3]

As precisely, timely predicted the situation we face today is of the scale of The Great Depression.
Without solving, the Great Depression led to the most brutal moment in history - World War II.
Anyone serious worried about this?

In a closely connected, interdependent globalized world, powerful nations’ leaders after witnessing many failures, are now wiser, better restrained from initiating major armed conflicts.

However, when there is nothing to keep the brainy, muscular engaging in constructive effort, we witnessed many unprecedented events. Other than bankers forced government to rescue in historical scale, the bank account of French President was broken into, Ukraine freighter carrying tanks and armaments was hijacked, the American coast line was penetrated by Columbian’s drug carrying private submarines.….

These demonstrated to us that the scale of human crafts forever is increasing in scale, proliferate in space and forms, crossing borders, by-passing legal, even moral guideline…..

Concisely:
First – Rich and powerful are plundered, suffering just like the weak, the poor.

Second – Awaken is the Greater public. Instead of exploiting the volatile market, they started to withdraw investment, holding cash - resulting in diminished speculative activities. They behave faster, better than I thought, [4] merely because when self-interest is concern, wisdom, actions come immediately.

Third - World leaders know the magnitude of problems requires international cooperation and the finance industries need fundamental reforms. Unilateral movement will be sidelined.

Fourth - The mighty corporate giants are severely weakened, they are now ready to seek help.

All the above four points open up precious windows for overcoming!!
The power of dynamite can now be used to breaking down major obstacles to reform, necessary reforms.
This open doors, clear paths, to shape a better tomorrow!!

However, if this window for overcoming is not seized, human greed will come back, once fear subsided.
We will end up ready for chaos beyond WWII has imposed on us.

[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[3] “Dynamite Economy – Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolution” Nov 12, 2007, www.cts-ideas.com
[4] “Dynamite Economy 3 – Deadly Urgency”, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com

Dynamite Economy 4.2 Free from Deadly Thinking

2008-10-30T08:20:00.000-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause

But why it goes wrong for such a long time, escalated to such scale, what to do, how to do it, no one else seems to have an answer, logical answer, less so effective, all encompassing solutions.

There is no one, other than from this source, has the capacity to talk about how to bring growth back to the world economy!

Basically, with the coming of computers, lead economists, such as Paul Samuelson, Black, Sholes, Merton, have been pursuing some exoteric – Brownian Motions, Ants Walk, Random walk.

They have impressed the practitioners with unwieldy formula. [1]
Politicians, leaders, even professional bankers were then led into wilderness.

Earlier, inventors of these exoteric – Physicists, have realized these are feeble studies - after years of lost in wilderness.
Physicists went back to basics - to predict motion, you must understand how the system behaves then apply the right forces.
What guided scientists is the immense order of nature, so focus is on how nature behave.
What they contributed is they discover orders amidst countless uncertainties, so profitable inventions, billionaires, jobs plentiful.
Have you heard of any respected Physicists talking about Ant Walks?

The bankers, the legislators, the capitalists must learn from Scientists, such as this interesting dialog between Prof Yang Da Li (when he was Director of East Asia Institute, Singapore) with Chinese Premier Wen (Engineer - geology), 2008.

Yang : “With the escalating prices of property, do you release more land for construction?”
“You are the specialist, I am the government of a nation. My focus, my responsibility is to ensure that poor men have accommodations.” Wen said calmly.

Now, with the real estate bubbles burst globally, Premier Wen’s wisdom of looking at fundamental needs of a society, a harmonious society contrasting favorable over hard labor, feeble labor of academicians, even Nobel Economic Prize winners.

This is a precious experience every leader, would be leader must seriously ponder!

If you focus on facts, on indices, then not only you are late into happening, you may not have identified the causes, the complexity and priority, what are appropriate solutions, what are the ultimate objectives of policy.
This is the critical failure in today’s thinking.[2],[3]

Without firm ideas of the objectives of policies, you will be hopping around very hard, empty everyone’s coffers, laboring till exhaustions yet without solving a dime of the problem.
This is the reason why there is no solutions surface for this crisis.
The outcome of not solving The Great Depression was World War II!!

The notion of a new economic order, regulated banking industries is feeble.
It is like telling people we need to change, rushing to reform, but what for, how much, to whom, where to begin, when to stop, and WHY?

The following wisdom therefore is timely, absolutely needed.
The following will set free not just governments, bankers from the shackles of unwieldy formulas.[4]
It opens new path for economists to do real, constructive, profitable research for long time to come.
It brings bankers compete on their core skills of value judgments, operation efficiency, and bring professionalism, pride back, then respect they have self-destructed will come back to them.

But most important of all - this will bring to all leader new understandings, supported by logically consistent explanations of what are the fundamentals of public policies, what are the essentials ingredients for growth!!

[1] Robert C. Merton was the first to publish a paper expanding the mathematical understanding of the options pricing model and coined the term "Black-Scholes" options pricing model, by enhancing work that was published by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. The paper was first published in 1973. The foundation for their research relied on work developed by scholars such as Louis Bachelier, A. James Boness, Sheen T. Kassouf, Edward O. Thorp, and Paul Samuelson. The fundamental insight of Black-Scholes is that the option is implicitly priced if the stock is traded.
Merton and Scholes received the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics for this and related work. Though ineligible for the prize because of his death in 1995, Black was mentioned as a contributor by the Swedish academy. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black-Scholes)
[2] “Fallacy of Modern Thinking”, Jan 2003, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[3] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” Jun 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[4] “The Blow Up” by Bryant Urstadt, Technology Review, Nov-Dec, 2007, is an interesting article to read how these financial engineers, on Aug 8, 2007, were questioning themselves after the darkest summer in decades, in The World Financial Center, Merrill Lynch, New York.

Dynamite Economy 4.3 Policies’ Objective

2008-10-30T08:14:00.000-07:00

Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

The whole economy hit stagnation – as it stands today, big employers like auto industries make great loses; cheapest of all factor of production - oil giants dominated size and their profits need the effort of more than Fortune top 130 to support!![1]

Saving a bank, even the whole banking industry is feeble, when energy for operations is so high, when there is no one, even mighty technology, able to drive economy.

Over supplies of labor, brains, wealth are the root causes of today’s problem.[2]

Wealth creation by itself is feeble, because no matter how immense is the wealth created, it can never fill the insatiable greed’s of human.

We must find human limitation to mitigate human desire.

Therefore, policies must address these issues in two fundamental, yet overriding elements:
1. Freeing Up Free Market - to improve market efficiency.
2. Put the Growth Engine Back - Guide the brains, labor mostly engaged in constructive activities.

On the ground, they are realistic, practically achievable in shorter time frame.
On higher ground, they are not only tangible; they are also politically and economically popular.

Not only they address the issue that technology no longer adequate to drive economy, it also channels the greed-motivated energy, all into building something for the better of the greater community, away from fabrications, exploitation, destructions, even self-destructions.

We shall address them in that order.

[1] This analysis did not include all financial institutions, General Electric, for the valuations of these entities are doubtful, as events still unfolding in front of all.
[2] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137

Dynamite Economy 4.4 Freeing Up Free Market[1]

2008-10-30T08:09:00.000-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
察觉于发生之前 Cognize before Happening
解决于根基之处 Solving beyond Root Cause

Nationalized businesses are deemed unpopular - because the able, articulate are deprived of chances of operating key businesses - big, ever-green, all penetrating, businesses.

But when business turns sour, it is these people demanding bail out from the states.
Again, this underlined when it concerns personal benefit, wisdom, actions comes earlier.

Is there mechanism to ensure private operators maximize efficiency over maximizing profits to further interest of public? – None.
How many nations seen the tariff dropped after privatize?
Singapore has two private operators operating the Mass Transit Railways.
A while after into operations, the wise leader Lee Kuan Yew questioned:
Where is the competition when they are operating on two different corridors?
Where is the economy of scale when similar machineries are operated, maintained by two entities?

In general, even after privatized, private operators asked for deregulations.
After deregulation, we face a monster of troubles that even states by themselves cannot contain, even the world cooperated together, cannot overcome.

Nationalized and Privatized are just white and black cats – both share chances of successes, failures.
Nationalized can be examined by domestic voters and international observers.
Private Enterprises, not only we do not know who actually committed the act, very often what is the cause also cannot be made certain – as this instant of financial crisis speak loud at our face.
Many a time, the government lost competence in understanding the operations.
“ Is government capable to regulate?” Many bankers, even central bankers have asked aloud! [2]

When we are focusing on surface facts, without insight of market dynamics, without understanding the underlying purpose AND overall objectives - The swing between nationalized and privatized, regulated and free, monopoly and multiple operators will never come to any good answers!

The sole objective of free market economy is to improve Market Efficiency – from supply to demand.
The key factors are – improve economy of scale, reduce agency costs.
The bottlenecks are intermediaries.
The measurable are accountabilities, transparency, losses!

Only with such fundamental definition of the purpose of Free Market -
Can we really define and prioritize objectives, before policies, solutions can be formulated!

[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com
[2] It is widely known that even Fed believed bankers are better in assessment of market risk, etc.

Dynamite Economy 4.4.1 Non-Factor of Productions (Financial Instruments)

2008-10-30T08:06:00.000-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

The invents of Black, Scholes and the like are creating instruments whose values are not subjected to real market supply and demand, but by formulas, but by human decision makings.

Human decision-makings, when not subjected to the immense law of nature is as good as fiction, - subjected to human greed and inadequacy, promise riches beyond dreams, yet deliver horrors beyond hell.

This has failed the very basic of measurable, all three of them – accountabilities, transparency, while losses are as good as pouring good money into a bottomless pit.

“Sorry sir, your investment is now worth nothing!” as one banker told an old man who put his life long savings in Lehman’s instruments.

Derivatives, Collaterals, Options are fabrications of human, expose no facet to be measured, stand on no ground to be realizable, while the values and prices detached from each other.

Did they channel the wealth, even a fraction of the whole sum, into any real wealth creations?
NO!
Therefore these are not critical to market functioning – they can be eliminated.

With Market slumps, investors withdrawing, this is the best time States joining hands together to dissolve all these activities.

With slow down in economy, helping economy to grow is the highest priority.
Therefore transaction credibility, improving efficiency, economy of scales, while cutting agencies’ costs are what can be done, must be done.
Before this window opened, it was already recommended to start with banking, finance, basic insurance, health care.[1]
With this window opened, we can now cover cashless, electronics transactions.
These will create a lot of constructive jobs for programmers(who other wise may become hackers), accountants, engineers(who otherwise may become traders).

Which one created real wealth?
Which is a more sustainable path?
Which one mitigate crimes, before happening?
Which one provide self-esteemed and gains others’ respect?

[1] Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry, Sep 22, 2008, Cognose.blogspot.com

Dynamite Economy 4.4.2 Key Factors of Productions (Commodities)

2008-10-30T08:03:00.000-07:00

Oct 28, 2008
Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

The world is now tightly integrated - suppliers supply to any consumer in any corner of the world.
Any major shortage of key supply will impact everyone.

Key factors of productions (commodities) affect economy deeper, faster, broader than non-factor of production (financial instruments).

If traders are not suppliers and consumers, certainly there must be significant potential profits to make before anyone will participate in such nerve wrenching sports.
If there are significant profits to be made by unrelated parties, then there is significant costs, losses, leakage from the real supply-demand chain.

This is free willing adventure at the cost of free market efficiency!
Now we examine if such transactions be essential for free market operations?

First we examine modern history, even in most terrifying disasters, with advanced technology, transportations, communication, the world community indeed come together, release from the silos, mitigate the sufferings, within hours.

But, if we read the commodities future markets for last six years, future contract quadruples, while notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.[1]
These drastic increases in size, frequencies, values in such a very short time window - testified it is not due to real supply, truthful consumption.

There is no shortage of supply of major commodities - there is no mountain, which cannot be overcome, between supply and demand, even in disasters stricken areas.

Future, derivatives trading of commodities not only has not contributed to market efficiency, in fact it delayed free market operations, weaken supply-demand connectivity - it added many hands intermediate, obstacles legal and beyond senses, cost expressed and hidden.

And that goes Free Market !

The commodities Future, Derivatives Trading are therefore not only unnecessary;
They are harmful to free market operations – therefore can be and must be eliminated.

No private, unaccounted privates should trade, stock, hog excessive commodities.

It is the duty of states, democratic or otherwise, market driven or otherwise, to stockpile for the event of catastrophes – natural disasters, or human mistakes, to look for silos when bumper harvest.

No one can imagine such drastic change of market order can be achieved, though many already thinking about this for decades.
However, with poor outlook of world economy, with little chances of making windfall profits, traders will be happy to be relieved of their baggage.

This must be done now, when everyone is worried about own basket of instruments, with no hope of taking a fraction worth home.
This is exactly the window for overcoming, that we must capitalize to overcome.

Therefore, to improve market efficiency, through better flow of information and economy of scale, states should help commodities industries to establish efficient, credible global connections between supplier and consumers.

With computer network, with audited real supply and real monies, free market economy indeed can be made into realities very fast, very reliable – when accountabilities, transparency with minimum delays, losses and leakages mostly removed.

Scale down, terminates all future, derivative trading, while letting existing future contracts and their derivatives expire.

The outcomes:
First, it will free up the people burdened with the baggage, looking for doors to escape, deals to bail out.
Second, it will make all traders more accountable of their actions, hone their product knowledge and become responsible actors that facilitate free market operations.
Then
Third, it will improve commodity trading efficacy (only real suppliers and consumers), effectiveness (focus on direct and speedy trading backed by product knowledge, abandon academic formulas, Nobel laureates’ calculus) AND efficiency (remove speculative fluctuation and agency costs.)

And above all
Fourth, release a few trillion book values dollars engaged in counter productive, heart-wrenching activities.
Resulting in
Fifth, a major source of real, urgently needed liquidity for growing real economy and healthier, happier, meaningful life for traders.

This is indeed freeing up free market – all activities are about real supply and real demand.

This is in fact the applications of strict discipline in research by western scientists – all facts experimented and measured, audited and apply, remove intermediaries, always making simpler, more direct – higher efficiency means bigger profit, proliferate, mass-produced - bring about industrializations, bring about billionaires.

Every action supported by logic, facts and real supply and demand.
Every movement with a real objective to improve efficiency, to satisfy needs.
In managing material side of society, we need such approach.

[1] “Of Froth and Fundamentals” Oct, 17, 2008, Economists - According to Barclays Capital, Institutional Investors had around $270 billion in commodities-linked investment at end of June 2008 from $10 billion six years ago. Yet the future contracts quadrupled since 2001, and notional values of over the counter commodity derivatives have raised 15 folds to $9 trillion.

Dynamite Economy 5 - Put the Growth Engines Back

2008-10-30T07:57:00.000-07:00

Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

After industrial revolution and rail way stagnated, we had World War I.
After radio, auto industries stagnated, we had The Great Depression, then World War II.

Human are animals needed to be tamed, guided to perform constructive work, else brutality, catastrophe are the outcome.

As stated clearly, after technology no longer adequate to drive economy.
Today, we have excessive brains, labor, from Advanced Nations, China, India.[1]

So Growth Engines we need now must have the magnitude, latitude to keep occupy the thinkers and doers, engineers and artists, rural and urban, oriental and occidentals.

There are at least 8 industries that will meet these comprehensive requirements.
Listed are three examples to stimulate thinking by the world, leading all out of the long dark tunnel.

These are based on the revelation that
“The only constant change for Civilization is to integrate
Greater Number of People, from Greater Diversities, Deeper, Broader, Faster, More Frequently”

Globalpolis 2006, Solvere

After people around the world are connected via technology, yet we still face very immense challenges, with very tight time window to achieve breakthrough.

After careful ponder, we merely need to take a step back and look broader:

Integrate not just people with people
But also machines with people, nature with people[2], machine with nature[3]

“Aimless to Win” 2008, Solvere

[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN 9810 5137
[2] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com
[3] “Patents – Rally more forces of nature” www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy 5.1 Energy Solvere[1]

2008-10-30T07:55:00.000-07:00

Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

In the report by McKinsey, it is said that by 2025, 95% of Chinese GDP will come from cities.[2]

There was no justification, scientific, statistical justification on such precise conclusions. McKinsey definitely has not understood that industries, even combined with suburbs around cities no longer able to drive economy. While commerce, dominated today by banking and finance, not only could not energize economy, in fact is the center focus of today’s economic woes.

It is important to realize that today, the challenge is to create employment, billions are from rural areas. They are the main concern of wise leaders, in particular Chinese leaders.
If they can be actively involved in wealth creations, then not only the greatest disaster since The Great Depression can be solved, more:
When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.

Today, agricultural produces do not see significant gap between supply and demand.
Therefore, based on today approach, there is no solutions for solving rural poverties.

As predicted, without philosophical breakthrough, MIT President Susan Hockfield’s inaugural pledge of solving energy problems, did not come to fruition.

Here, is the breakthrough:
The notion of burning the purest 1 gram of alcohol for energy and left with 1kg of carbon rich residue not only is costly, unsustainable, it is in fact no policy can be more wrong than this.

We shall use
1. The best of agricultural produce for food.
2. Next for animal and industrial feedstock.
3. Then for packaging and construction material.
4. Only the useless waste, contaminated, dead, plagues, wormed burnt for energy.[3]

Not only the same plot of land can have multiple income, it also reduces labors, investment, cost of waste treatment.

Not only fertile land are fully developed, thorns in deserts, algae in warmed up water found economy to support the effort of fighting expansion of deserts, global warming.

Not only farmers found wealth creation avenues, machineries industries found new sector to process waste for packaging, construction materials. This is much needed in the lack luster, seemingly sunset industries.

Only by integrating with the immense order of nature, rally forces of nature, immense wealth will be created.

When Billions farmers become middle class, Trillionaires shall come.
This is the integration of man with nature.

[1] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com
[2] “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion” McKinsey Global Institute, March 2008.
[3] “Direct Thermal Transport” is a Patent Pending invention that rally more forces of nature to faciliate, perturbate, accelerate physical, chemical, biological, nuclear reactions, not limited to combustion. Its brief is in USPTO or “Patents – Rally More Forces of Nature” www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy 5.2 Building Automation (Yi-Dian)

2008-10-30T07:51:00.000-07:00

Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

Look at your desk, Computer, Camera, Phone, Speakers, Displays all are connected, connected easily.
They present you with history, science, technology, arts, connecting you with family, friends, clients even competitors.
Machines are indeed connected.
What is not connected remains very obscure unless we have mastery of technology, history.

Now think deeper, observer keener - to turn a fan, to dim a lamp, to soft a music, to switch a station, you face with choices of manual switches, unwieldy remote controls, what are not mentioned are spaghetti of wires, under concrete conduits, power adapters……

Building Automation as implemented by the world giants, at Bill Gates villa are following the mainframe approach of more complexity to perform even the same tasks.
Mainframe did not bring the world forward into a connected world. So IBM faded away, while Intel, Telcos contributed.

When most devices become electronics, we found power adapters almost on every power-outlet, with lighting replaced by LEDs.

Supply electricity from generators hundreds of miles away, through a high-tension cable, even over your house have proven to be costly, even fatal, like the blizzards in Canada, Snow Storms in sub-tropical Southern China.

There is an interest group for distributed power system, but there is no mention about building automation.
There are numerous building automation initiatives, even standards, where are they now? i only heard of Siemens retrenched a significant portions of employees.

To make a significant improvement, we must have holistic thinking, practical solutions.
To make an improvement well received, it must have economic savings, profits, ease of use…..
To make great profits is feeble to the current world situations, if you cannot create immense jobs.

This is the solution – “Yi-Dian” PointOnce in Chinese

Applications - Yi-Dian –using a pointing device to operate all devices, from simple on-off-diming operations of light to sophisticated complex operations of plant and machineries. This is intuitive and easy to connect with all electronics, electrical, mechanical systems. Therefore the size, spans are significant.

Buildings[1] - Yi-Dian – Type of Buildings capitalized on today’s system, mostly low voltage, so the commercialization period is shorter, installation is easier, cheaper, safer. It can be easily adapted for even most delicate ancient monuments. So it opens market for all buildings planning through to antiquated buildings, from residential, through to industrial.

Fault Tolerant - Yi-Dian at low voltage, will seamlessly connect to miniature windmills, photovoltaic, new and old batteries. This will not just reduce peak demand on the power grid, it will also provide a safe, fault tolerant system in face of great disasters.

Job Creations - Yi-Dian as low voltage, user-friendly system, it will create jobs for not just electricians, also carpenter, mason, architects, designers, engineers, system integrators, artists, movie directors…. This will open not just for metropolis, also for rural areas, for post disaster temporary shelters as well as ancient monuments. This is the only industry of such immense size that can only be limited by imaginations of people.

What about the biggest low voltage system designer, manufacturers – Auto-industries do they need a life line?

What about Electrical-Electronics industries, Plastics, Construction industries?

We need industrial standards to be established before opening for the world to share, so that immense growth can come at a rapid pace.
So details are not released.

This is the integration of machine with human.

[1] Patent to file on how to carry low voltage, high current in eco-friendly buildings, building materials.

Dynamite Economy 5.3 Dotted Giga City (.G)

2008-10-30T07:45:00.000-07:00

Solvere Lim
Cognose.blogspot.com
CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere @ www.cts-ideas.com
Cognize before Happening
Solving beyond Root Cause

Greater integration of people is the core driving force and key manifestation of progress in civilization.
Most major breakthroughs happened, or even conceived in cities.
As environmental technology progress, we have built cities of up to 10 million population, usually formed by clusters of population centers in close proximities.
It is natural that 100 million metropolis formed by clusters of cities will be happening, as the distance of daily transport escalated as a result of higher speed transits.

But other than highways, mass transits, skyscrapers, there is no breakthroughs for decades.
We need to look deeper.

When I proposed to Presidential candidates to invest in infrastructure rejuvenations, Henry Paulson, an investment banker, naturally think it is too slow.

However, today, he has to admit even a few hundred billions rapid cash injections still will take long time to heal the economy. Do we see healing starting?

Today, the purpose is not to design bigger, more fanciful metropolis.
Today, is just like post agrarian renaissance, is to take detailed studies of forces of nature, discover order of nature, to bring about elegant solutions.

It is only this way will keep the brains, labors busy, occupied in constructive activities.
It is this way that we can use less material, energy, space and yet bring the elegant, efficient connections among more people, while immersed ourselves in the beautiful sight, fragrance, sound, caress of nature.

This will need a long series.
A hint:
It is the detailed studies, numerous experiments that brought about elegant, simple, sleek, strong Gothic Arches.
Today, even aerospace bearing races uses this arch to support the precision, high speed rotating machineries.

Must, we must, open our sensors, humble ourselves to the intricate order of nature so that we can tap even a bit of immense forces of nature, will change our society, our economy by a great deals.[1]

This is integration of Human with the Environment.

[1] “Patents – Rally More Forces of Nature” www.cts-ideas.com, provide examples of how building designs, drainage designs, processes can be significantly improved by understanding more of order of nature.

For Pakistani and all People of the world

2008-10-09T02:01:00.000-07:00

on Dec 27, 2007, former Prime Minister Benazir Butto met an assanitation and died.

This speech was prepared and delivered on Dec 28, 2007, for President Pervez Musharraf (In office 20 June 2001 – 18 August 2008) .

This speech is recommended to be released to share with the world how nations, big or small, powerful or feeble, will face, if there is no strong, able, credible leadership - elected, inherited, colonized, or otherwise.

The released is secured on Oct 6, 2008.
This writer is not a proponent of any particular system, for human can easily craft, device and overcome even the best system.
Therefore help your government to govern well, identify flaws and improve upon, identify opportunities and labor on .

Any one who dream of best system, shall not leave the bed, so realities of world they face not, crafts of men they endure not.

Any government who is unwise, not listening, has to improve.
For no one will have the allegence, commit and perseverence than your country man.

Due to layers, this was not presented in time to secure serenity.

Dear Fellow Pakistani

this nation is facing threats, not from our brothers, sisters, but from others, who have interest in our wealth, our position, as a gate way to our neighbors.

human do not fight for ideals, they fight for survival or fight for profits.

what we see in front of us, is again another example.

many of our leaders were killed in the course of performing duties to hold this nation together,
to bring better life for our fellow country men.

some succeeded, some failed.
but no matter, they succeeded, or failed, some were sacrificed in the most brutal manner.

Fellow Pakistani
i do not preach high ideals, for i know without power, without solidarity as a nation, we cannot survived.
this not only happen for a nation like Pakistan
this happen to all nations, even America, China.

Foreign Secretary Lord Horrowby in 1804 told Madison,
“The pretention advanced by Mr. Madison that American Flag would protect every individual sailing under it on board of a merchant ship is too extravagance to require any serious refutation.”

Fellow Pakistani
you are not on board a armored battle ship
you are on open field
not just Ms Bhutto is in open field, i am also in open field.
we have our share of threats, though we have come out differently,
i am facing the same, if not worse threats.

How American sailors, merchant ship are safer, not because the world is less brutal, because American has the ability to protect his people on high seas.

Fellow Country man
do not jump to conclusion what is a good system, what is not.
first we must unite together, to have a nation that is respected by the world,
not just from governments, but also unlawful organization.
then we can live our life safe, and in peace.

Fellow Country man
i cannot promise you i can remove threat over night
but i can promise you, i will work with every one, with me or against me,
to bring all of us together, focusing on creating jobs, producing wealth,
than fighting for this position, that system.

Positions have been vacated by many who died on their call of duties.
Systems have been manipulated by many, all around the world, to benefit their friends.

no position is powerful
no system is perfect

only we see the welfare of every one,
to let every one focus on gainful employment,
we are better.

only when we help each other to cooperate,
to produce better environment for ourselves, for our children
can we say we are happy, we are peaceful
when we (this President - recommended to be replaced by we) retired in old age.

we will do the best to investigate the cause, the perpetrator,
and will do our best to put them under justice.

but this cannot protect us from threats
we must be united and help each other
then no one can pose any threat to us,
every one of us, not fame and rich,
but commoners in cities, in villages

i will do my best as your President
i listen to your yearning for a peaceful living
i will do my best
but i need your support

let us focus on cooperation and generate wealth
while our armed forces, police hold the weapon to protect us for further threats

i plead to you
let us remain silence for 3 minutes for Ms Bhutto and many before her,
who sacrificed their life to seek the ideals.

Dynamite Economy 3 Summary for Deadly Urgency

2008-09-24T08:07:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 – Summary for Deadly Urgency

What we see today, collapsing, chain collapsing of financial institutions, like a dominos. The root causes have been discerned as early as 2001,[1] since then, time, scale, together with cause, effect, wrong solutions and resolutions have been detailed.

Financial industries depends on the economy at large, this reflect also the economy at large.

By 2000, innovation came to a halt, economy, predominantly technology-led economy definitely come to stagnation. No new, significant industries has been racing for listing, investment bankers face over-capacity.

However, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW) has been cumulated that find no profitable ventures. Negative interest rate and war were predicted then. So they were.

Negative Interest rates are fabrications.
Fabrication has no limit, so free wheeling of fabrication escalated till stand stark as most profitable, biggest employers, in 2007.

To inject Well Governed Funds to Free Private Hands, in the market flooded with OAW, is analogous to inject sugar into diabetics. It will clog the arteries, impair physical body, and caused stroke, paralyze. Again it has been forewarned. It was taken note, but not acted adequately.[2],[3],[4] The situation today, is the outcome – parallel to The Great Depression.

The said reference to Japanese similar rescue in the 1990 by her Financial Service Minister of State Yoshimi Watanabe, is irrelevant. Unlike America, Japanese was a smaller economy and did not lead all the major fields of industries. The funds latter were quickly absorbed into new immense industries - the internet, mobile communications expansions - the most rapid technology-economic expansion in history. There was no impact to commodities prices that sink the economy, as we see today.

Free Private Hands, is subjected to no governance, no obligation to facilitate the bigger picture. When they are over-endowed with OAW, they move from financial instruments (which are not factor of production) to commodities (key factors of productions). When bank call for liquidity, OAW in private hands has no obligation to response, this is Credit Crunch in OAW. This is worse than stagflation, because stagflation is merely a phenomenon spanning private, public sectors. While OAW overloaded in private, ungoverned hands, is a dynamite-clogged arteries, clogging every passage of economic activities – material, transport, communication.

Many drew parallel to The Great Depression.
No one has mentioned of its sequel – WWII.
This may be because after two major campaigns, no one can foresee mighty power will commit another.

However, today real weapons and virtual tools while multiplied in power, are miniaturized in size and within the access of private, many faceless people. Without visibility, governance, accountability, the damage will be much bigger, wide spread, unpredictable, uncontrollable. The damage will be far beyond the sequel of The Great Depression – WWII.

With globalization, with weaken, poorer governments, the outcome will be worse than WWII.

So before we foolishly empty nations’ vaults, weaken governments, we must act to prevent such tragedy from happening.

Here, practical solutions, that take priority to address the nature of human is presented, supported by technology, invention, apply with philosophical depth.

To mop up the OAW from Free Private Hands is the right approach.
To create new industries, in innovative way, immediately implementable is prescribed.
The outcome will be to bring
1. millions urbanities and billions rural farmers busy creating wealth,
2. to keep them occupy, so that even their insatiable nature is fulfilled, because
3. their vigor is engaged in meaningful, profitable engagement.

The Fed, the Treasuries may think such fundamental approach take too long, but the correct treatment for all serious ailments took long time, arduous effort, patient to heal.

Taking any quick approach, like pouring well govern funds into OAW market, is like helicopter dropping of dynamite into wild fire, when even the last plant has lost water - dried up. The outcome is obvious, destruction, violent destructions. You see your delivery, but others experience the death, burnt and torn bodies, while no one actually is saved – the spread ensure no one can escape, no spot for the pilot to land!

But if you understand human nature, once a good, effective policy is conceived, the market confidence swing before the policy is fine tuned, approved, implemented. People start to move, faster, more decisively, than legislature, executive branches – when there is profit to make.

So the Fed and Treasuries, together with world leaders must improve not just their understanding of economy, also

the very purpose of their function – wealth creation
only wisdom will bring peaceful, progressive, prospering world

while brute force, foolishness
using wealth to destroy wealth creating engine
resulting in depression, retardation, poverty of even the richest

Choose the sections relevant to save the world from worse than WWII.

Dynamite Economy 3 Summary for Deadly Urgency

Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude

Dynamite Economy 3.2 Cognized before Happening

Dynamite Economy 3.3 What has Happened

Dynamite Economy 3.4 How Faults Initiate?

Dynamite Economy 3.5 Who is at Fault?

Dynamite Economy 3.6 Wisdom from History

Dynamite Economy 3.7 Where can we be heading

Dynamite Economy 3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?

Dynamite Economy 3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy

Dynamite Economy 3.10 Importance of Human Motivation

Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry (relevant to education, health care, insurance…

Dynamite Economy 3.12 Approach – Essential Commodities

Dynamite Economy 3.99 Deadly Urgency

[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” April 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom.” ISBN-9810-513757
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries.
[4] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” , Nov 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf

Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude

2008-09-24T07:57:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.1 Magnitude

Within months, American injected, injecting in total exceeding US$905 billions just to save a few major financial corporations, while leaving numerous others behind, never mind about other industries, nations.

This sum is the size of
1. World 14th economy – GDP of 21 million (11million labor force) Australians in 2007; OR
2. 13,000 pieces of Boeing 737 (more than double Boeing has produced - 5,815 since 1968[1]); OR
3. 1.3 time total profit of 2008 Fortune Global 100, employed 22 million DIRECT workforce; OR
4. 22 times the budget of Beijing 2008, good for Olympic games right into next century.

The differences are:
1. the injections was within months compare to year, or decades of good hard work
2. even it may moderate the indebtedness of few, it does not improve, for even one entity, the very dire situation they are embroiled.
3. even it may delay a few hundred thousands job losses, it may not secure them in the long term, never mind about create a single job.
The mid to long term effect for improving economy, does not exist

This comparison is depressing.
The scale demand the world to unite together to resolve.
This represent we need superior wisdom, strong leadership to resolve.

America remains the leader, sole leader of new industry creation, economy leadership
Americans have to lead, to improve world economic situation

America, the most resource and market dependent nation
A world in strife has been proven not a wise choice
for the profit of the most powerful nation!

I shall provide the key motivation and causes analysis, AND solutions, supported by consistent, accurate, precise prediction, prescriptions made since 2001.[2]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737
[2] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” April 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom.” ISBN-9810-513757

Dynamite Economy 3.2 Cognized before Happening

2008-09-24T07:52:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.2 Cognized before Happening

What we see today, have been forewarned, in 2001, to the leaders of Singapore and her technology leader, whom i expected to lead sovereign fund.[1] Stated clearly was that technology no longer able to drive economy, economy will hit stagnation. (Since then Technology companies, one by one, dropped out from top 10 listings. Today, 2008, even GE ranked 12.)

Technology cumulated wealth found no place to invest, interest rate will go into negative, which is pure fabrication - the impact will be unprecedented. War will take place (in a separate, now no longer sensitive submission – Afghan was identified as the first battle field.[2])

Aug 13, 2007,[3] witnessed the lack of understanding of economy by leaders – the fundamental driving forces for economy. Stated clearly, that among top corporations of the world, Finance and Energy overwhelmed the whole economy with revenue size (29%, 25%, total more than 50%), profit (41%, 31%, total almost 75%), AND profit margin of 9%. Banks being a lubricant for market economy, such profit margins can only be fabrication, cannot be sustained. (So by today, Sep 2008, a year latter, THREE out of top FIVE investment banks collapse.) Energy should be the cheapest among all key factors of productions. At such magnitude and profit margin, all business will not survive.

Sep 9, 2007, after delivered above warnings, I have encouraged Steve Forbes, on a luncheon in Raffles Hotel, Singapore, that America must lead to create new industries, “Energy Solvere”[4] was presented as one among a battery of eight new industries that will energize economy again. Also clearly stated that pumping well governed sovereign funds into free private hands to rescue banks, will spread turmoil from non-factor of production(financial instruments) to key factors of production (energy, commodities, grains).

Nov 12, 2007[5], after monitoring the scale of intervention from international sovereign funds, I stated clearly that together with other key factor of production, oil and gold will exceed $120 and $1000 respectively in a few months time. This will pull the carpet under all business’ survivals.

Gold hit $1000 on Mar 17, 2008. Oil hit $120 on May 5, 2008, manifestations of serious impact all around the world, including transport workers went on strikes, airlines cut operations. This testifies $120 is a critical point for most business survival. Oil peaked at $147 on Jul 11 2008, and dived to $94 today (Sept 17, 2008). Violent up and down swing prices may be, damages it has caused to world economy are definitely unprecedented, severe, the sufferings – long, prolonged.

[1] “Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities” April 2001, collected in “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom.” ISBN-9810-513757
[2] Tracking the speeches of the Singapore leader, before Shanghai Communique, Mid 2001.
[3] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 13, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[4] “Energy Solvere” www.cts-ideas.com, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!
[5] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” , Nov 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf

Dynamite Economy 3.3 What has Happened

2008-09-24T07:36:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
www.cts-ideas.com tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
Dynamite Economy

Sep 17, 2008, within the last 50 hours, two out of four top investment banks AND one of world largest insurers collapsed. This is not the beginning, neither do we see a pause in sight. It is just a moment in a long sequence, a rapid sequence, a rapid sequence without a pause, a rapid sequence of Dynamites detonating, spare no country, spare no industry, spare no leaders, differentiate not poor or rich man, hurting every social fabric.

Within the last 100 days or so, fifth ranking investment banks together with two largest mortgage companies fallen. Oil prices hit the predicted mark of $120 on May 5, 2008, struggles for survival started to be felt around the world, strikes of transport workers, airlines cut operations are some indicators.

Even with such time window for rethinking, elaborate deliberation, free from official position, the former Federal Chairman, Allan Greenspan, both US Presidential candidates, only state what is already obvious to all – greatest disaster in 100 years, worse than The Great Depression, etc, without analysis, never mind about causes, impacts, solutions. The criterions for rescue considerations, were poorly uttered …..

From the following reports, we see that economists, bankers without basic understanding of market, economy, made wrong statement, almost all of the time, even late into events.

2007 March 14, “Subprime alone won't sink Wall Street bankers” “SUBPRIME CRASH: It may not be fatal, but it can be painful” USA Today, Lehman Bros, told investors during its quarterly earnings call that its exposure to such loans is minimal. That came a day after Goldman Sachs reported strong quarterly results despite any troubles in its subprime mortgage business.

2007 May 17, “Bernanke Believes Housing Mess Contained” Forbes reported.

2007 July 18, “Same Old Ben with a Dash of Subprime” Forbes reported Ben Bernanke concern subprime

What has becomes obvious are:
1. Three out of top five investment bankers already failed.
2. Immense sum of well governed sovereign funds that equivalent to the labor product of one full year of labor by 11 million Australian work force, or the highly skill to sell double the number of 737 jets since 1968, is going to poured into the market, without adding one jobs, without producing any goods and services.
3. Before this, smaller token of such injection, already escalated commodities prices to a level that pull the carpet under all business survival – Oil prices exceeded $120 that whole world felt physical choked.

Dynamite Economy 3.4 How Faults Initiate?

2008-09-22T10:10:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.4 How Faults Initiate?

No nation can function well without great leaders.
No economy can sustain without healthy fundamentals.

From Dynamite Economy 3.3 we know that:
Economists, without discern of the basics of economy, while tightly coupled to their doctrines
over stated their effectiveness, under-stated the problems !
This is the very problem, Economists who yearn to be key contributors to society
must admit, must improve, must overcome !!
Here they are:

It is when technological innovation reached a plateau, industrialization no longer able to drive economy. We need new engines for growth!

It is when industrialization cumulated an immense scale of wealth, no new, significant industry was invented, this wealth becomes over abundance, Over Abundance Wealth (OAW), just like a hyperactive strong man without meaningful employment, will inflict more severe damage than small babies, hungry men.
We need new industries!

When the size of integration of civilization changed from nations to global village,
nations cannot contain problem by themselves.
Nations need cooperation from others, every nation.
We need new realm of thinking!
None has happened, so seed of disaster buds, grew, destructing, devastating!!

Dynamite Economy3.5 Who is at Fault?

2008-09-22T10:08:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.5 Who is at Fault?

To resolve any issues, we must seek the causes.
For such unprecedented scale, unprecedented spread, as Dynamite Economy, we must also understand the very motivation forces that effected these causes into affecting whole world economy.

But the spread, magnitude determined that even there is a person, a group, an industry that is liable for this disaster, the greater environment allowed it to exist, propagate, proliferate, eventually almost everyone participated, so affected.

To assign fault to anyone, is so very easy, is definitely possible.
In this situation that demand unity, if we focus on fault assignment, will only divide the people, divert the resources.
We cannot afford it, can we?

Even everyone is at fault,
Even so,
we must objectively study every wrong move,
1. Not just the effect, but the broader, deeper impacts.
2. Not just the causes, but the immense motivation forces behind that bring these effects to cause series of over whelming failures.

Dynamite Economy 3.6 Wisdom from History

2008-09-22T10:05:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.6 Wisdom from History

Historically, when agrarian communes matured into feudal states, without necessary wisdom to drive economy, when power of communes become inadequate to survive, while organizing into feudal states was an experiment, great philosophical thinking came side by side with centuries of bloody conflicts.

Today, when the world has evolved from sovereign states into global village,
with borders fading away,

without learning from history, without philosophical depth,
we would easily repeat what those great philosophers failed to mitigate -
ceaseless blood flowing battle fields, of east, of west.

But we journeyed thousand years of journey,
we have integrated wisdom of west, of east, of intuition, of analysis.

We must prevent bloodshed, strife, even hardship, suffering from furthering,
while we gracefully migrate into a tightly integrated global commune.

The Great Depression, brought up only World War Two,
only a few states had mighty power,
only a few exceptional leaders can pull the triggers. A
nd they can be found guilty,
and in fact few war criminals were executed.

Dynamite Economy 3.7 Where can we be heading

2008-09-22T10:02:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.7 Where can we be heading

Today, with more powerful weapons, miniaturized, store in private bunkers belongs unknown.
Today, with connected world, some unknown can monitor, adulterate from a far, prices can be justified by mathematics model that pack junks and sell you for a good fortune, respectfully and legally. Most transactions, the only record is in one computer, which can be easily adulterated yet cannot be fully protected, audited.
Today, Globalized business made businessmen richer than nations, Lawyers smarter than legislators, bad management, misadventure, corporate failures, can demand support from nations.

The scale, spread of calamity, will be beyond World War II.

Sovereign Nations cannot act alone.
Just like post agrarian commune, while experimenting Feudal States was not ready to effectively govern. Great Philosophers came too late.

We need global cooperation, governance, yet Global Cooperation, Governance, Leadership are yet ready.

Without immediate action to create massive industries, to keep everyone bus
Without global order to manage businesses
The rapid escalation of immense wealth, brains power, fire power in free private hands
Will bring about unprecedented chaos

Compare to what can come, if we do not solve it, effectively now!
Barings, Enron, Societ General, WWII are just small plays!

Solutions, immediate, practical, this engineer, inventor, philosopher has prepared for nations with different situation.
Sharing this understanding, joining our wisdom and might
We shall carve, record the future into a happier history!

Dynamite Economy 3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?

2008-09-22T09:49:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.8 Can Nations inject Sovereign Funds to rescue Enterprises?

It is wrong, Why?
First, by injecting funds, does not change the dire situation this Enterprise is in.
Second, the whole world economy is in grave trouble, saving even all of Fortune 100 is not enough.
Third, injecting well governed funds to rescue, the effort is arduous, the effect of rescue is small,

the repercussion is shown here:

Sep 16, 2008 AIG, the biggest Insurance Group declared great losses, price drop from US$79 a year ago to $1.25. Not a world wide household name but a typical shrewd businessman, Oei Hong Leong bought 1 million share. The Fed gave a US$85b loan. The price escalated to $3.75 end of same day. Oei could easily move into his Free Private Hand more than double his original.
Immense money dispensed from Well Governed Sovereign Fund
Where they actually sink into?
How much money actually help the economy?
Where will myajory be used for?
Oei donated the shares to LKY School of Public Policy[1]

This solution is wrong, fundamentally wrong, so fundamental that injecting wealth into the market with Over Abundance Wealth, is as idiotic as injecting Sugar into Diabetics.

As pre-warned,[2],[3] by H1, 2008, after well governed sovereign funds, in smaller measure, were injected to rescue smaller failures, the impacted no longer limited to Non-factor of Production (financial instruments), Key-Factor of Production (energy, minerals, grains) sky-rocketed. It pulled the carpet of survival under all businesses.

With even small, initial injection of fund into Free Private Hand, has already overheated Energy, Commodities Prices!
The Carpet of survival for all Businesses, was pulled.

With such immense injection
we will be seeing Oil climbing up to $200 in few months time.

Which industries can survive?
How many employees will loss their livelihood?
With skills, brains, accesses, with earlier knowledge of failures, with no hope of next jobs
Major failures will come also from lawful slips, crimes, even for healthy organization.
Enron, Barings, Societ Generale will be child play overshadowed by more, bigger, countless fiasco?

Paralyze of world economy is a definite outcome!

[1] Lee Kuan Yew, Sep 16, 1923 - ; Founder of Singapore, among the contemporary of post anti-colonial era world leaders, led colonies , independent, THE ONLY who led progressed from Third World to First.
[2] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf
[3] “Dynamite Economy - Proliferation, Wrong Solutions, Resolutions” Nov 12, 2007, http://www.cts-ideas.com/G1108DynamiteEconomyProliferation.pdf

Dynamite Economy 3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy

2008-09-22T09:28:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.9 Key Characters of Correct Policy

Certainly there are many solutions, ineffective, many worsen problems, some caused fatality.

There is no perfect solution, with more cooperation, synergy among diverse strength-wisdom, new revelation shall come, all solutions shall be improved upon.

Characters for Correct Policy are:

addressed the main causes,
broad base employment,
profitable, AND
promote business efficiency, reach

In this case:
1. Immediate - Rejuvenate infrastructure[1], this
a) Mop up OAW in private hand

to invest in design, through to constructions, operations.

b) Create across the board, numerous jobs
c) Resulting in escalated demand,

especially for those on poverty line, the first job create a lot of anxious purchases.

d) Improved efficiency,
(i) integrate businesses,
(ii) reduce cost of business operations,
(iii) magnify economy of scale.[2] (US$ 900 billions can create a lot of activities, can employ more than 11 millions.)[3]

Market is not driven by what is physical, but by expectation.

Good policy will raise market confident even before it is approved,

long before it is implemented, effecting.

Bernanke think this process took too long is wrong!

2. Mid Term - create new industries that will employ Billions for real value-adding activities.[4]

3. Outcome - Trillionaires shall come before 2016.[5]

Successful policy is not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.

Great Successes, Satisfaction are not for followers of situation

but for leaders that improve situation.

Effective policies are not one by reacting, but by leading appropriate changes.

Successful policies are those that change the greater environment to facilitate businesses.

This is not a few Billions dollar corporate, but Billions of OAW, Brains & Labors！

This is a problem that Sovereign Nations need Global Cooperation to overcome！

Leader who leads cooperation

will be THE Leader that bring about new stage of Civilization!!

[1] This was proposed to McCaine campaign, Jan 18, 2008. Huckebee used it, Ben Bernanke first think it takes too long, latter included in his plan.
[2] To know the only constant is change is feeble. “The ONLY constant change in Civilization is to INTEGRATE greater number, from greater diversities, deeper, broader, faster, more frequently”, Solvere, @Globalpolis, 2006. Transport, Communication are the key for integration, to gain economy of scale, to synergy ideas, to multiply strength. Historically, all key economy are about integration, from river transport, horse carriage, ocean sailing, rail way, auto-car, radio, telephony, computer with network, banking with network, while medicine though is key, “Aimless to Win” ISBN 9810 579043
[3] “Dynamite Economy 3.1 Magnitude” http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab cognose.blogspot.com
[4] “Energy Solvere” http://www.cts-ideas.com/, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!
[5] 1916 Rockerfellar became first billionaire in History.

Dynamite Economy 3.10 Importance of Human Motivation

2008-09-22T09:21:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.10 Importance of Human Motivation

Late 90s, Economists discussed about the situation when interest rate zero bound[1],[2]. They cannot imagine interest rate can go negative, because they understood very well number, busy with building models, they do not respect the nature of human.

In fact, as early as 1970s, holding Swiss Franc was an attractive option. Foreigners were given negative interest rate to hold this privileged currency.

January 24, 2003, Friday, normal Japanese domestic interest rates went negative. Banks lent money on that night and accepted back a smaller amount on Monday morning. Banks have too much money from the mighty works of Morita-Matsushita generation. Cheap money overshadowed the reality – dearth of real wealth creating engines for investing, economy definitely stagnated, Japan lost her eminence, economy remain at the valley for almost a decade now.

If we understand nature of human, these are not only reasonable acts, these acts indeed are predictable, from the basic instincts of investors’ unpretentious positioning to reduce losses, to multiply profits.

If we look at only number, without satisfying human's nature of profit seeking, without invigorating the economy, how can present severe, complex problems be addressed correctly, even partially?
Will not partial anesthesia impair progressive movement?
Will not cosmetic surgery weaken the patients?
Will not incorrect solutions bring more harm?

To avoid the worse than WWII from unfolding

we need to solve this deadly urgent problem!

To solve this complex, deadly urgent problem with certainty, effectiveness, efficiency,
We need to satisfy the nature of human, even seemingly insatiable!

[1] “Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era” September 1999, David Reifschneider and John C. Williams, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC 20551, david.l.reifschneider@frb.gov jwilliams@frb.gov
[2] “Price Stability and Monetary Policy Eectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero” June 1998, Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Dynamite Economy 3.11 Approach - Finance Industry

2008-09-22T09:06:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.11 Approach - Finance Industry

Banks are lubricants for market economy.
Banks shall not, can never be wealth creator.

It was clearly stated in Aug 2007, that Banks making 9% profit over weak economy that barely made 1% profit is unsustainable. The big profit is through instruments, then sub-prime instruments.[1]

All the Top 5 Investment Banks has since faced the realities, except the top two still able to resist, the rest collapsed.

When there are OAW in banks clients’ pocket, the temptation is so high.
So they pretend they are wealth creator, these are fabrications, fabrication cannot be really fulfilled
Banks shoulder upon themselves promises they can never fulfill.
So dreamers’ hearts broken, banks bankrupting.
Rules of law are last resort, is late, it can be applied only after grave harm is inflicted.

Greed for profit is human nature, trying to ignore, using money to feed, law to control are feeble.
Salvaging is too late, too costly, usually the result is decimation of wealth.
So to satisfy temptation is the most important for design, for regulation.
Successful application will improve social order, for economic stability.

Banks should be divided into two categories:
First, Banks as they are remain as a conduit, a lubricant, continuously improving effectiveness, efficiency for capital formation, capital flow in the market. This category subjected to lower return, tight governance, and government backing.

Second, Investment Characters. These are avenues for higher return, naturally coupled with higher risk. No one should bank on it for survival, emergency. So they should not be called banks. The coupling of the secured character of banks with the promises of high return investment led to overwhelming popularity. Just like most euphoria, eventually brought about today’s disaster. By calling themselves Investment Characters, they make everyone aware the nature, the character of such investment – taking high risk may be rewarded handsomely. Investors take their own risk – “caveat emptor”. When it fails, there is no embankment to protect against the onslaught of storm.

The creation of this category is so very important for channeling excess capital back to the market. These are excess liquidity that is not survival critical. Failures in venture shall not be supported by government. Since they are not survival critical, the impact of failures will not affect the economy at large, surely not national stabilities, global orderliness.

US government chose to support Insurance and not Investment Banks is one great improvement in understanding, despite inadequate one, too late.

Finance Industries is not the only industry that needs this segregation, philosophical segregation.

In face of OAW, Medical cares, Education, Insurances also need such differentiating approach to differentiating for the survival essential and the comfort, pampering of the overly-endowed.

We shall divide Cosmetic Care from Essential Medical Care; Enjoyment Institutions from Scholastic pursuits, Basic Education; Wealth Protection Insurance from Disability, Retirement Pension.

With this approach, the governance of such institutions is made easier:
1. Aggregating to achieve economy of scale, in training, in facilities, in expertise.
2. Segmentation to provide premium products,
3. Dispensing of public subsidies, canvassing for support can be appropriately managed, scaled.

This is the wisdom derived from the great Western culture. Western strict disciplines, strict discipline of research brought about today’s leadership in the world, in science, in technology, in financial institutions.

Even a simple, singular transaction, we need to enter twice, one left, one right, one credit, one debit, to ensure there is accountability, accounting trails, mistakes minimized.

Even Black & Shore inspired many, very complex, very precise models, none can stand to the very basic requirements of strict science – cause and effect, measurable and repeatable. Forgotten the Western Strict Discipline in research, this cancer was allowed to grow under the eyelids of the best of Finance Industries for almost a decade, led to the collapse of world finance industries and repercussion spread through out the world.

Without addressing it now, it may bring about worse than Great Depression & World War II.

To ensure a stable, progressive, efficient economy, strict discipline in managing the essential is essential to survival, if not social serenity, if not transaction efficacy, efficiency, world order.

Every one yearn for freedom, full freedom of expression, full spectrum of fabrications, not limiting to Collaterals, Derivatives, Options, Free- willing Valuation. When one is such given, one must shoulder his own risks, and cannot count on others to bear the blunder, just like no one is entitled to taking a slice away from the pie, when it is ready, when it is tasty. This again is Western Strict Discipline of Transparency, then Accountability.

This two-prone approach provides solutions that satisfy seemingly mutually exclusive requirements –
highly secured vault for essential liquidity AND infinite free flowing cannels for excessive capital

together they shall ensure the spirit of free market principal and social good order –
Basic, critical capital flows efficiently, reliably.
no capital is stashed away from the economy
no creativities is stifled
no naive lost his sole piggy bank.

It is darkness that bring us cherish the sunrise.
It is strict disciplines that provide us the basic securities, so that we can venture beyond, venture freely, venture for high profits – even reach the unreachable stars, dreams the unrealizable dreams.

It is only when the society can provide everyone with basic securities, that society can be safe, stable, progressing.

The rich, the powerful, are the most vulnerable, in a society that is full of strife, conflicts, unemployment.

Why should they not support such categorization?

[1] “Dynamite Economy” Aug 8, 2007 http://www.cts-ideas.com/G0813DynamiteEconomy.pdf

Dynamite Economy 3.12 Approach – Essential Commodities

2008-09-22T08:53:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.12 Approach – Essential Commodities

The values of commodities cannot multiply over a short span of months, yet their prices did.

This is only possible because Prices detached from Real Values.

If we examine carefully, deeper, it becomes clear that the real supply and demand of commodities, especially with immense stockpile by nations, cannot swing violently within short period, yet the prices of energy, metals, grains etc commodities did.

This is only possible because Purchases independent from Actual Demand.

Demand cannot swing so much. Other than those resources really need for real operations, who would purchase something higher than its real values?

Speculations - especially those who are well endowed with OAW, who found no place to park their liquidity will speculate, were speculating.

It is because after the injection of well governed sovereign wealth into free private hands, the scale of OAW available for trading in commodity market is multiplied, become significant, adequate to SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE prices, faster, more effective, effective in inflicting bigger effects, unprecedented swings these are witnessed only after governments dispensed huge sum to intervened in Sub-primes.[1]

The whole world is tightly connected, integrated.
If commodities need to be physically transacted-delivered, the price would not swing so violently.
Commodity traders in fact devised futures, on top of other instruments, to facilitate immediate, easy, many unwarranted, transactions.

The operations of such markets, are they essential to Free Market operations, Free Market objectives?
If free market means the linkage of suppliers and consumers in the most effective, efficient manner -

Does these markets improve efficiency, or hinder transactions, multiply agency cost?

This hurts the real suppliers, the real consumers, which eventually passed on the losses to the economy.
This is agencies theory, but in this case, the agents are performing transactions without real supply nor actual demand.

They are not even agents, merely interfering parties who has no interest in the real commodities.

There will be no urgencies for governments to intervene, if the impact is small, short-lived.

But the impacts become real, severe, stark.

if all traders are likely to make great profit

The inertia to accept change, regulation will be formidable

But with such gloomy economy, without recovery insight

would traders not want to bail out?

From governments, international regulatory bodies

it is the best window to get the support of traders!!

[1] Sep 16, AIG, the biggest Insurance Group declared great losses, price drop from US$79 a year ago to $1.25. Not a world renowned tycoon, Oei Hong Leong bought 1 million share. The Fed gave a US$85b loan. The price escalated to $3.75 end of same day. Oei could easily move into his Free Private Hand more than double his original.

How much money moved from Well Governed Sovereign Fund actually help the economy?

Oei donated the shares to LKY School of Public Policy
This also demonstrated that market move with expectation than real impact manifested!

Dynamite Economy 3.99 Deadly Urgency

2008-09-22T08:27:00.000-07:00

Solvere, Cognose LIM Swee Keng (Sep 22, 2008)
http://www.cts-ideas.com/ tab Cognose.blogspot.com
Dynamite Economy 3 - Deadly Urgency
3.99 Deadly Urgency

Today is not about saving a few fallen giants.
It is about whole economy, whole global orders, to help the Over Abundance Wealth (OAW), cumulated over technology era, find profitable investments.

Injecting Well Governed Sovereign Funds into Free Private Hands, not only will not save a single corporate, it has already sky-rocket all key factors of productions, suffocating all businesses.

We cannot wish the brutality of Great Depression, WWII away, today, with more powerful weapon miniaturized, filling private bunkers, with mighty instruments sink good money into junks, the brutality will be beyond WWII, physical, financial. Worse, those who can inflict such catastrophe, are no longer nations leaders bound by laws, but by numerous faceless, nameless unknown, leaders, operators.

With present scale of injection
Oil will hit $200 in few months
All businesses will be suffocated!
Skillful frauds, penetrating at all level, all transactions, every computer!
not few companies, but Industries collapse AND Governments topple!

Putting intelligent brains, restless muscles onto the streets, the most at risk, even profitable companies will be exploited, beyond trains/banks robberies, massive frauds in paperless transactions.

The most brutally tormented will be the rich, the powerful and their vulnerable children.

All effort must try to mop up wealth held in Free Private Hands, through exchanges with longer term bonds. Promising higher yield in the long term is better, much better than promoting, accelerating market disarrays, promote detonations of Dynamites, in stock markets, all industries, whole world.

All investment must be done, to rejuvenate infrastructures, which need only matured technology.
This is to engage to full capacities of OAW, all brains to device more efficient design, to exhaust all muscles to construct.

Eventually, all businesses profit from more efficient greater environment, profit from multiplier effect,.

All research must be to develop new, more efficient, healthier, natural sources of agriculture for human food.[1] Fully use, cascading usage from roots to seeds, from desert thorns to water algae, for animal, industrial feedstock, for packaging and construction material. Only the waste be used for energy generations.
From same plot of land, same investment, farmers multiply their income –

Billions farmers shall enter middle class
Millions engineers, Factory workers invent, build new processing machines
Trillionaires shall come!!

All work, especially research, finance, banking must subject to tight discipline beyond transparency, accountabilities, also strict scientific reasoning of cause and effects.

Selling freedom, ignore the precious jewel in western cultures - strict disciplines, rigorous scientific cause and effect reasoning, measurable and repeatable evaluation, have brought the world away from efficient mass production factories that brought about billionaires, but unprecedented disaster that profit no one.

It is only such grave catastrophe, will bring the world back to reality, of responsible actions
Integrated world, cooperative progressing will be the next phase of civilization –

Post Industrialization Renaissance!!

[1] “Energy Solvere” http://www.cts-ideas.com/, update on cognose.blogspot.com, is one among 8, will bring billions farmers into middle class, billionaires shall come!

From First to ? - Water Resource

2008-09-18T06:52:00.001-07:00

Sea Water:

Kranji Reservoir:

Minister of Water Resource, can you enlighten me the rich green in Kranji Reservoirs taken on Sep 18, 2008 at 1700 hours compare to the sea water outside.

From First to ?

2008-09-18T06:52:00.000-07:00

This is not a feedback or complain passage.

but from one Cognize before Happening and Provide Solutions beyond Root Causes.

Lee Kuan Yew, my respected, as well as may be the most respected contemprorary leader, who bring strict self-discipline to first himself, then to this citizentry, and bring us from third to first.

Even we have many strong foundations, they are eroding away, by bags of tricks up sleeves, by pole dancing and bar top dancing that can save our entertainment business, by many claims that bring us less than even illusions.

here i shall move from providing insight, foresight behind the scene, to work with all with full commit, so that the cadres of PAP, the civil servants can appreciate the deep wisdom our founding generation dispensed to bring us here.

First, please for all Member of Parliament, please do not call yourself Advisor to grass root organization. You are elected to serve, change your title to Person Fully Responsible PFR.

Second, all civil servants, reach to your heart, and find some self-respect, you have wisdom if your put your decision to the ground and test, put your failures to seek root causes, put your successes to further simplify the solutions, concise the answers, integrate more solutions to solve more with less, just like computer design, the better, faster is cheaper, smaller, faster, use less energy, and do more work. You can be better than the best Ang Mo in many way than one.

Third, Chief of Civil Services, please review through the last batch of super scale, who say they can get more pay from being a Investment Bankers, even they cannot have good foresight, they do not understand banking businesses, they must have realise working with PAP is more rewarding after seeing ALL the FOUR top investment bankers lost great deal, money and reputation.

With this certainly we will move from first to be one best sought after models by the whole world.

None of us, Politicians PAP and Opposition, Top Civil Servants and front Desk as well as those who are yet civilized have the right to fail the founder, the founding generation.

The world is facing greatest challenge, our founder is no longer so very young.
We have no place to migrate to, just look at Chen Sui Bian, just look at our foreign talent construction workers, if you fail, we will be dog everywhere we go.
Time is runing out, your Minister of Environment and Water Resource, Chief of EDB must testify that timing i know very well.

Read aloud to yourself

I, your name, shall commit myself to make Singapore from First to the Best place to live for ourselves, our family.

Solvere shall you call me from this time forth

Dynamite Economy - Post Industrialization Renaissance

2008-07-14T06:05:00.000-07:00

Do not expect the Fed, the Govt can do anything to save this tragedy. But they can certainly make it worse.

The theory of supply and demand failed here.
Threfore to solve this problem, we need deeper understanding, higher wisdom.

Why?
The core is not about money too little.
It is about over abundance wealth (OAW)created by Electronics industries found no place to invest.

The Finance industries created papers to absorb this.
And there is no basis for the price, the values of equities, all are exageration of values.
This is purchases without actual demand, therefore prices is detached from values.
The supply and demand theorgy is fundamentally inadequate, unless it takes into account over abundance supply of funds.
This therefore cannot sustain.

Not just the naiive investor are hurt, the finance industries are hurt, many nations leaders are.
But real estates are not factor of production, so the impact is contained.

But since the Fed, Sovereign Funds injected well governed huge funds into free private hands in supporting this, where will the money go?

Since the valuation was well above real value? Will bank make good their housing loans?
Would they pump good money into something worth much less?
or
Seek greater window for bigger profit in order to cover the lost?

As stated in "Dynamite Economy" as early as Aug, 2007,
including to Steve Forbes on Sep 9, 2007:
these big sum of wealth will move to skyrocket commodities (including energy price).
These are factor of production, key factor of productions.

Once these key factor of productions skyrocketed, the whole economy is impacted, badly impacted. No one can survive.

Look at Fortune 10, almost all are energy giants at double digit profit margin.
How many firms need to make money to sustain their profit, when the rest, except tobaccos are making almost zero profit?

i do not think energy giant, if they are wise, would be comfortable at this state.
They know not only the profit cannot last, they will be not be able to collect the sales, when all biz go bust. Worse, their refineries will be hurt.

So the solution is to create new economy, bigger than electronics, to create employement, to create real wealth.

First,
as my advice to the Republicans, to tear down brigdes, roads, infrastructure and rebuild them. Not only top consultants get jobs, laborors, mon and pop shops also got jobs. This must be done even by Bush, Bush should not wait till his term is over.

Second,
Now, auto, aero, electric, electronics, IT are matured. No new industries, significant industries likely to come.

We are in post industrialization society. just like Renaissance after Agrarian society, aristocrats invest in extravagance mansions, churches, and use little material, but a lot of artisans, to decorate every corners, including the ceilings.
This is effective, and self satifying for the extremely rich, not just their egos, but also their welcome by all.

Solvere Lim Swee Keng on New York Times
www.cts-ideas.comgoogle "Dynamite Economy", "Energy Solvere"

"Answer the Unanswered" Important Questions today we face

2008-05-03T22:17:00.000-07:00

____________________________
You are cordially invited to the book launch of “Aimless to Win”
“Answers the Unanswered”
Important Questions today we face
by Solvere in poetic verses
8 pm, Friday, 30 May 2008
Earshot, The Arts House

1 Old Parliament Lane, Singapore 179429

Refreshments will be served

Supported by The Arts House
_____________________________
Solvere
Foresighted major events social, economics, technological

Shared with leaders

Explained why, stated time, space and magnitude

AND

Solutions provided combined forces of nature, human, machines
_____________________________

Knowing“the only constant is change”
is NOT enough!
We must know Why?Where change leading us to?

Seek, seek the order

behind human, society, nature

Realise, we must realise

Narrow, our aim, too narrow

Feeble, our effort alone, too feeble

Rally, rally forces beyond
With this Understanding

Love, happiness, health, success then flow together endlessly
_____________________________

*Please set reminders on your mobile devices
Invite people around you via emails, sms, blackberry

Welcome to save the trees and inks

by minimizing hardcopies
____________________________

CtS Cognoscere tenus Solvere
http://www.cts-ideas.com/

ideas@cts-ideas.com

"Answer the Unanswered" Important Questions today we face

2008-05-03T21:57:00.000-07:00

there will be a talk at
the Arts House on May 30, 2008 Friday evening at 8pm
please go to website www.cts-ideas.com for table of contents of the books, work to be presented.

Arts, Freedom, Responsibility - Edison Chan & Steven Spielberg

2008-02-17T05:07:00.000-08:00

Cognose Lim Swee Keng, Engineer, Inventor, Philosopher, Poet[1]
SM(MIT), MBA(Law)
February 16, 2008
sweekeng@alum.mit.edu, ideas@cts-ideas.com,

[1] writer of
“Energy Solvere- the most effective power to solve key contemporary challenges”
(Flooded Liquidity induced Dynamite Economy, Rural Poverty, Energy, Environment)
“Dynamite Economy”
www.cts-ideas.com

Naive is he
if he demands an agrarian nation to accomplish something
the most advanced, industrialized, sole super power
tried, failed, and dropped from her agenda.

Trivial is he
if he focus on an area of bloody strife due to poverty
if poverty of the world he can mitigate
by inspiring the whole world to rally, to move, to mitigate, even to solve
yet he choose not.

Artists have freedom.

Arts can be even without form.
Arts therefore can fly over the air, broadcast around the world, touch and shake every heart, in no time.
Arts therefore are not governed by order of nature, strictest order we are subjected to.
Without governance, arts can distort, exaggerate, making into songs, music, marches.
So it can infect, affect people faster, more effectively. There is no boundary, no limit.
With such, you can even make beautiful hamlets into gruesome dungeon, even kill healthy people as an experiment, like WWII started by Nazi, dominated by artistic propaganda.

Artists are therefore given the greatest freedom, indeed.
So can artistic creations be free?

What we are seeing right in front of us,
In Hong Kong, an average artist, Edison Chan whose habitual shootings of erotic images with many famed artists came into public hands.
A world leading director, Steven Spielberg, demanded a big nation to put a far away nation house in order, failing to comply his demand, he withdrew from Olympic project.

This seemed almost on the extremes of two poles, almost totally unconnected.
An actor unknown to the west versus a world renowned Maestro.
An individual daily practice versus a world important event.
Decadence life styles of a group of artists versus seeking peace and security for a community.

But it is this stark contrast that provides us a unique case for study, to consider, to deliberate the issues of arts and artists, responsibility and role. This is an old issue, before even the word arts is created.
The issues they are involved are fundamentally different, but yet the roots behind these issues are surrounding the same, the fundamental role and responsibility of artists.

Using powerful imagination, Steve fabricated a way to bring dinosaurs from fossil.
Children read up more about evolutions, youth inspired to do bio-engineering, this is a happy beginning.
Edison merely shot beautiful nude everyone dream to have into pictures, video, now for many to see.
Asia gets heated, a few old men got so heated, heart attacked, fallen coma, dead. This is sad ending for few.
All are predictable outcome of what artists can do, constructive or destructive, inspiring or killing.

Steve portrayed the courage of common soldiers, the wit of adventurous young and old, and bring high esteem to his name.
Edison ran away from his fame, facing reprimands from authorities, moral, legal, while common people trying to strip more victims from him, digging for more others like him.

Artists, many are blessed with outstanding assets. Artists naturally are tempted to enjoy them, flaunt them.
Even their managers try their best effort to lock them in tight vault, willing to open only if price is right, cannot stop them. What law and society can do is very minimal.

Artists even though can affect, infect the hearts and soul of millions audience.
The one that is injected the heaviest dosage is the center of these acts, the artists themselves.
So even artists are given full freedom, arts they create, values they impart to others have to be positive, else, the sufferings they condensed upon themselves will be many order darker than the darkness they spread.

Artists even with exceptional articulations to defend their acts against others, act against their own, they cannot defend.
Artists have more sensitive feelings, for same sufferings, pain, they feel more, sharper, linger longer.
If they reason with themselves, their own soul and hearts, sharper sensation will spiral themselves nuts.

Law, morality can never convince, restrain artists, because of their self-given freedom, exceptional talents.

Only by seeing the outcome of their peers, the glory or suffering, the joy or sorrows, can convince them.

Even their memory may be short, days may be too busy to observe others.
With technology, reminders come from farther away, repeat more frequently, display more vividly. What Edison did, may not hurt any one without hearts, but many with hearts will feel, will fear, and will not do same to hurt themselves for sometime to come.
Edison is not the first in Asia. With much greater freedom in the west, gruesome outcome among them never ending.
This ends the case for casual artists, artists with small aspirations.

What Steven is doing, wanting large nation to impose will on small nation, is a stark demonstration of the limited understanding of artists on real issues.

Artists can command non-existence into existence, dull into glory, never happened into faithful, repeated happenings on magnified screen, make them live away from law of nature, order of society.

And therefore if they extrapolate their power on screen to others, worse, rich and powerful nations, they think if he can made dinosaur come alive thousands years latter from DNA preserved by mosquitoes, it is not unreasonable for big, rich nation endowed with oldest civilization to command heaven descend on earth.

Obviously directors, can direct others to do more, faster, more intensely, with more than full devotion.
But great directors must understand if they go beyond what humanly possible, the actor may even die of exhaustions; devotion becomes fake, before the shooting is over.

It is only a little stretch for a great director like Steve to think deeper, to convince himself, to convince those who surrounding him, to solve other nation’s internal affairs, is beyond the ability of most powerful nation, even with seven fleets of armada, even with Apache flying in swarms more organized than mosquitoes. Never mind about a nation without a single aircraft carrier, never mind about dreams of all small non-align nations’ yearning, yearning for non-interference of internal affair by others.

Artists who can make non-existence into bigger than life, repeatedly playing without fail. Yet, cannot change a single bit of life, living, nations’ destiny by their words, their works alone.

Certainly, certainly, with artists’ blessed talents, assets, they can form synergy with others, scientists, engineers, inventors, philosophers, to find solutions practical, effective for ills of civilizations, proliferate to every corner of the world, in a manner that will inspire his generation, future civilization to live positive, harmony with others, human, nations, nature.

I come to provide Spielberg what he has not, to solve the greatest problem of civilizations, poverty, environment.

Naive is he, if he demands an agrarian nation to accomplish something the most advanced, industrialized, sole super power tried, failed, and dropped from her agenda.

Trivial is he, if he focus on an area of bloody strife due to poverty, if poverty of the world he can mitigate by inspiring the whole world to rally, to move, to mitigate, even to solve yet, he choose not.

Homosexual – Causes & Solutions

2007-10-28T21:13:00.000-07:00

Wednesday, 24 October 2007
http://cognose.blogspot.com
Cognose Lim Swee Keng
Cognize Before Happening
Solve Beyond Causes
（1223 words）

History

Homosexual is not a new happening.

One commonly used word referring to homosexual, Sodomy, sourced from Old Testament. So the practice must be more than few thousands years old.

So the expression that Homosexual is a modern manifestation, the argument that because it is modern, it must be accepted by society, else the society is out-dated, is an argument worth not rebutting.

Morality is not frivolous. Basically it is guiding the basic behaviour of individuals, communities, to stay healthy, live in harmony with others and healthily propagate.

Morality, Cultures, Religions from all diversities prescribed severe punishment to incest, but not to homosexual. Basically, incest will produce children defective, sufferings. While homosexual doe not produce children to suffer.

In Old Testament, God did not punish Sodomites until they schemed harms to God sent. Same as in civilization through out history under even average leaders without fervent allegiance, as long as no harms were brought to public notice, seldom punishment unleash against homosexuals.

So this approach has been valid, effective for thousands of years till today.

Root Causes – Individual

The causes for individual can be in-born or family brought up.

If the collective bigger society has wisdom, compassion, then they will extend understanding, guidance, love and help to those who are suffering.

I was on the understanding that civilization, mechanization made the need of conquering and defending land, of heavy labour less often needed. Men are therefore deprived of the needs, opportunities and demand to become more muscular. So the uniqueness of men is diminishing.

While most machines, economic activities, social situation made women capable of almost all aspect of living. Women do not have the need for man’s strength and power to defend their chaste, to labour their provision.

Technology and Civilization have made man and woman more equal.

We need to see to how to address this aspects by creating, developing machines, opportunities, environment to enhance the needs for each others’ strength, strength complementing, man-woman.
Root Causes – Social

There are countless, among them many are children, living under starvation, poverty, brutality, slavery. They count more than homosexuals. But we hear little, acted not.

Why homosexual is so pronounced? So forceful in lobbying for policy, law changes? Why is it spreading like wild fire all over the world?

Freedom of Expression, Democratic systems are giving those who are endowed with means of influencing, arts of expressing a space, an exaggerated space to magnify their power of influencing, to expand the reach of propaganda, without restraints, without boundary.

This is the fundamental weakness of Freedom of Expression, Democracy.

The representation is not by number of people affected, but by the decibels, frequency of rhetoric, colourful of preaching, over time, space.

The representation is not by gravity of the issues, but by ability of provoking sensation, regardless of its importance, priority, less so its gravity of impact, long-term impact in the invisible future.

This fundamental weakness will be the line of cracks, the fault of collapse, the fire for self-destructions, Freedom, Democracy.

If you believe in Evolution: Freedom must exist in lone soaring eagles, roaming animals. Democracy must exist among simpler communal insects, penguins, before most sophisticate communal living Chimpanzees, evolves into Human. Order and Law then come into place.

If you believe in History, Scripture, Freemen must exist before they can be made into slaves.

From time to time, Anarchy took place, Autocracy took its place.
Freedom exists before Communal Living.
Democracy exists before Governments can be formed.
Freedom and Democracy are not modern; they are not even milestones, therefore never the destiny of history.

They are merely endless exchanges between organized and re-organized, connected by disorganized.

When responsible Freedom is abused, Governance is misused, Freedom lost, Government collapse.

So the theme that Homosexual is modern, equal opportunities for homosexual, marriage for same sex are preached. It must be preached by history ignorant, socially irresponsible.

Marriage is not a show of freedom, nor democracy.
Marriage is a ritual, a law to ensure that parents are accountable to their children, incest does not happen. Though no marriage, ritual, law are perfect, they help, they mitigate, they minimize.

Passion among same sex, do not produce children, free you are.

Homosexual, if you want freedom, why ask for more attention, social commitment, legal and social bondage?

Homosexuals, do not be misled by people with purpose, agendas, seeking fames and power.

Root Causes – Technology

However, lately, it is said that many homosexuals are in-born. It did not occur to me, to my parent generations. Among hundred thousands i encountered, very few are those inclined, and those inclined, with social understanding, help, live the life majority of the society live.

But it impressed me, and others, that many are changing lately, and more homosexual are born.

Science has given technology.
Technology has provided us many things for our using, for our wearing, for our eating.

FIRST warning, our scientists, technologists invented insecticides such as DDT, and it hurts the environment more than killing insects.

SECOND warning, our industry has invented chemical do not exist in nature, to coat our pans, to chill our food, to cool our room, to boost our spray. Mother earth opens a hole in Ozone layer in high sky.

THIRD warning, over the last few decades, we were given synthetic fabrics for wearing. Our body, our skin, the biggest organ, the strongest organ, the organ defending our intricate inner tissues, organs, has rejected it.

FOURTH warning, Our Industries, our factories have feed cows, a herbivore, meat protein. And cow turned mad. Mad Cow disease does not happen before.

Our body is the results of billions years of close interaction with environment.
Our body exists naturally, among nature, for thousands years.

Pharmaceutical Industries, Biotechnology, Gene-modifications, are creating compound, formulae, life-form do not exist before to satisfy our body.

Stimulant can propel a chicken to grow faster by weeks, growing meat tender and sweet. What can we deduce, if we eat hundreds time more of not just chicken, over not just week, what would we become?

New formula, new drugs, do not exist in nature before.
Are they the means for living, growing, healing of our body, natural body?
or
Are they the cause of new problems, problem exist not before?
This is what we must ponder!!

Olympic of thousands years history, bans steroids from sportsman.
Is it right thinking to invent new drugs to heal our sickness, to improve our memory?

What is the benefit, we have seen some.
What is the impact, we see many, heavy.
We have seen holes in Ozone, we have seen cow mad.
Impact hidden, we never know.
Do we need many warning, before man are not man, girl are not girl?

The world health organization, with the help of NGOs, governments must do a serious survey, to determine if there is a trend of increasing in-born, and increasing mid-life change.

This cannot be less important than monitoring Global Warming.

Global warming is important, and causes are looking into, solutions are sought.

Homosexual of human, if on the increasing trend, will lead to the extermination of this species. It is more important.

First world nation must take the lead, voices come from that quarter more.

A well organized island nation, with clear borders, with precision on residents’ history, should initiate and lead this censor, and derive clear answers, for the world.

Rich men, Poor Men, Wealth Creation

2007-09-01T07:15:00.000-07:00

On Change of law, Charges to Enbloc Sales

Saturday, 01 September 2007
http://cognose.blogspot.com
Cognose Lim Swee Keng
Discern Before Happening
Solve Beyond Causes

If you should charge the developer more fees, pass these fees back to the sellers’ CPF, for their old age securities. The sellers are not profiting from this sale and wasted in Casinos.

The poorer parted their loved units, downgrade to cheaper public housing, exactly preparing for the uncertain, long future, long before national leaders plan for such days with efficient, effective, painless solutions.

The poorer face the darkness, bite the bullets long before others realized.

The world respected Minister of Mentor for Singapore, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, when talking about selecting leaders, had his observation that when the poor man was invited, he will stand out and do good for the nation. While for the rich would ask: “What for?”

This is indeed an important observation.
As usual, whatever this wisest man of this time stated, is real, profound and affected beyond.

When a poor man, proven by his ability and vigour, character and resilient, is invited by great leaders to lead, as long as his heart remain truthful, would remember the suffering, the rude jeer they experienced, the yearning for realistic, better, living condition by the poor. And what they strive, would help not just the poor, but make better social harmony, national solidarity, and the rich live safer, happier.

Rich men, have many projects to occupy themselves, many enjoyments yet to be filled.
When the nation is prospering, there is much wealth to make.
When the nation is declining, there is not just mobility, but many invitations, many promises of greener pastures from beyond.
They obviously have no time for trivial wealth the nation has to reward them.

The core issues is this:
Without Rich men in the national leaderships, would legislation, executions be unbalanced, would miss out the interest of the rich?

The question is:
In anytime in history, in any corner of the world, in any minute jungle tribes or highest society, would any rich man, sit still, do nothing, and let leaders, parliaments, nations set legislation that affect their interest?

The answer is obvious:
Yes, definitely so. When that rich man lost his wealth, his friends lost power, house arresting, assassinated. This we are witnessing so many, even just around us, even at this very moment.

The next question is:
Would national legislation, policies, strategies be unbalanced, or even full of flaws if rich are not in the political leadership? I have not heard of this!

In his farewell speech in 1961, President Wright Eisenhower warned of the immense influence the emerging Military Complex on national policies. An outstanding Military man, who led the Allied to overcome the mighty, gigantic military machines of the Axis, certainly most qualified to sound this loudest alarm to civilization.

When Singapore was negotiating bilateral trade relationship with America, the world largest chewing gum company not only influenced American’s legislators, government, also exert his influence on Singapore’s domestic law. World largest Chewing Gum manufacturer, for merely 2 million consumers, far away, not in his constituency, constitute minute part of his interest, would exert his might, and let his might be felt, unhidden, unashamed, to the utmost.

Singapore’s gifted, articulate Renaissance Foreign Minister George Yeo, saved the day.

This experience reminded all leaders, that bigger, richer, more powerful people has more than enough ability, articulation to influence even national leaders, directing international relationships even other nation’s domestic affairs. Therefore, what more will be the interest of the weaker, poorer, smaller? They are definitely within this shadow, if not control.

So whenever there is new nominee, policies, laws, who is the first one to know?
Who will bring up more opinions, faster, more convincing?
Who has the ability to choose the right vocabulary, clauses?
Who has the propensity to choose the avenues, and determine the speed of progress?
Therefore whose interests are best protected?

Rich man does not need to be political leader to lead politics.
Capable poor, even the most capable, need a lot more to become even a leader.
The poor, even after becoming the supreme leader, may not even influence political decision.
Just look at the capable, honourable, General Colin Powell, he know the price he has to pay for running for American President, so he abstained.

This is common sense, this is right in front of us, we need not genius to realise.
Since this is such obvious, powerful truth, we not only cannot ignore them, we must manage them well.

If rich man needs the law to be modified to protect their rights, they are men without ability.
It is like prodigal son, even with the best of law to protect them, they would not be able to protect their ever diminishing wealth. Not to mention about creating wealth.

Creating wealth is the very essence
for the survival of man, prosper of nation !!

The great thing a rich man can do is to grow their market, improve their efficiency.
Improving efficiency, rich man only need to employ capable managers, which are available by tons, without the need of law.

The greatest thing a rich man can do to bring unlimited benefit to himself is to grown his market, open new markets.

Any capable, able rich man, start up, even a young, unseasoned descendent, even in a matured industries, even a trivial, old trade, like Coffee and Toast, they can innovate new ideas, inject new vitalities, open chain stores.

What the nation can do is to facilitate them, such as provide efficient, reliable, cheapest utilities, communications, transport, good basic education for the masses, train the poor to be disciplined, skilful, trustworthy to work for the rich.

From a bigger picture, for the interest of nation, for the global positioning, for longer term growth, we must help these capable self-respecting rich men to promote their image in the world, champion their entries to world markets, and multiply our international trade and capital income.

But if the nation pooh-pooh at the ability of rich man and their contribution to nation’s economy, modify law to let them have more voting rights on top of what they already procure with open eyes, then it is a big mistakes, if not plain stupidity.

The modification of law to let the richer, bigger share owners to have more rights to vote, more say to say to the same piece of cake, not only diverting the focus of greater wealth creation by the wealthier, it also remove the crumps from the less nourished, little forum for the voiceless, the lesser would end up with much lesser.

What can the lesser do?
They will break into the car to steal the few shillings of change, they would tear apart the hi-fi in the cars, which are already happening on the increase in the first world city, Singapore, reputed for its low crime rate. It causes heart-ached of the rich. If this progress, then their children also will need bodyguards to go to school, their villas need higher fences to fence off suitors, where is the peace of mind to generate bigger wealth? This is the reason why our neighbours, Indonesians, Philippines, the richest send their children to the neighbouring Singapore for education.

Now, in Singapore, many common people are selling their beloved condominium, to down grade to smaller public housing, so that they have cash for their old age, their uncertain longer life span without income.

Instead of helping these pragmatic common people, laws are enacted to charge more fees for such transactions, and assign more rights to the richer among them, what will become of this society? Where would the strength, the might of the nation, the richer to focus on? Creating wealth for this nation, or collecting every dime from the lesser and smile home and suddenly realise, their homes are broken into, their poorer neighbour jumped to the rail, their daughter raped when visiting her friends. This is the picture you are seeing now.

I beckoned the leaders, the richer, the powerful, do not use those little meaningless words to shock the lesser, do not using professional jargons in areas not of their expertise.

If you should charge the developer more fees, pass these fees back to the sellers’ CPF, for their old age securities. The sellers are not profiting from this sales and wasted in Casinos.
The poorer parted their loved units, downgrade to cheaper public housing, exactly preparing for the uncertain, long future, long before national leaders plan for such days in efficient, effective, painless way.

My fellow alumni from MIT, a white man was wondering to me, how come on this Island of Singapore, everyone think the white is the right? A white visitor to a private compounds are accorded as the owner of the compound, or honoured guest, or invited lovers, while coloured skinned are checked for contractor passes, shouted as trespassers?

If the richer, the better learnt, the bigger landed are united to use their gifts, talent, network to seek beyond this island for best buyers of the land, best architects to design best housing on this land they cherish, than to dig that last penny from your neighbours, your constituents, then would this nation not be richer?

How to create wealth, more wealth?

Accord more voice to the louder?
Giving more decision making to those who already hold more votes?
Teach the richer to gain more from the lesser?
Tax the developer more so that they disburse less to those who intend to downgrade and save for their twilight?

Then you shall
Let the richer live in a less peaceful society !
Let the voters vote in other forum of their fume!

or

Persuade, help the gifted to create more wealth from outside the cake?
Invite more, better quality Foreign Direct Investment to this island?
Let the lesser has more money for the unknown, protracted retirement time?

The law of nature is very robust
that everyone will live to taste the fruits of the seed they sowed.

The law of nature is very merciful
those who sow sour, bitter seeds they shall not perish at their prime, at time of their choice
but they will live till feeble, and cannot leave, cannot act yet can feel, can be acted upon
so the wise shall choose to do the right thing?

Iraq is not Nam - A Policy US Needed

2007-08-23T07:04:00.000-07:00

November 14, 2006（619 words Main Body)
Lim Swee Keng
Engineer, Inventor
sweekeng@alum.mit.edu
ideas@cts-ideas.com
published at cognose.blogspot.com
www.cts-ideas.com

Iraq is not another Nam.After many years, American, except unfortunate pilots, did not set step into North Vietnam.But American set foot on every township of Iraq within months.Iraq is not another Nam.Without support of two super powers, Soviet Union and Communist China, Iraq cannot deliver any fatal blow to America Homeland.Occasional harassments may be.Iraq is not another Nam.Without support of superpower, as long as the neighboring states take care of their people, do not let their peoples lost hope, rebel against them.There is no falling of dominos.It is typical of history may be.American is trading practices with Communist World.When American raised their voices yelling Freedom, Democracy and imposing on others.Russian, Chinese quietly developing their economy.When American is trapped in the belief of sectarianism is the cause of trouble.Chinese abandoned class struggles.This may be because the western thinking is based on divide and rule, it makes everything simpler, manageable, reproducible.It is with this paradigm of thinking, that western scientist is able to build microelectronics that benefits the world.

But this brings one to be too focused on quantifiable, singular objectives, and lost the greater pictures of interactions among diverse, synergy among parties. (Neil Hendric Bohr needs the enlightenment of Taiji to breakthrough Newtonian Physics to Atomic Physics, "Contraria sunt Complementa.")

So they need longer time to be awakened to the necessity of integration, arts of synergy among diverse.
This double-edged sword divides one integrated holy book into denominations that even kins fought among themselves over the plain of Europe for hundreds of years.

It is no wonder to the western scholars, when there are differences, they cannot co-exist.Clashes must, civilized must clash, bloodiest of clashes is held to be the truth, in that token, Men will destroy all Women and exist as one superior species. This is fundamentally wrong. Iraq troubles start to deepen. Many western scholars dreamt that election would solve the problem. It is proven a false hope. So authorities, like Foreign Affair, invited experts, authorities to offer their opinions. They have diagnosed that the existence of different sect, the Shiite, Sunni, the Kurds are the root cause of trouble, and proposed to divide them, fence them apart.
Any common person, with even little wisdom, will know that this is vanity. You cannot even pick out a few armed foes from a little town, how are you going to divide the people across deserts, with no clear demarcation.
New Iraq Policy after election, without new sight, new understanding, it is with little hope that there will be breakthrough. It is proven today.Even the Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice said : “the only constant is change.” Without even stating what state are we in, definitely do not know why civilization is changing, where this change is heading leading us to?What she said is as good as a Chinese idiomatic phrase: “A blind lit a lamp.” Useless.In a recent international business leaders’ conference, I sadly saw many leaders are trapped in their concepts, ideas.So I contributed what I thought is obvious:“The locomotive for the progress of civilization, the yard stick to measure thus isThe integration of greater number of people, from greater diversity, deeper, broader, faster, more frequently.”I was both glad and shocked that such common sense explanation won a round of applause.If we are aware that this represents closer to truth. Then we should not place freedom, democracy, religions, gender-equality as pre-requisites. These had wasted a lot of effort, energy and washed away precious lives by such meaningless pursuits.If we focus on the protection of Iraqis’ life, property, and let every Iraqi’s able man busy and pay for what they have worked for, even if we have to lost some freedom and democracies. America will win back the people’s heart. Even initially some may be sacrificed to establish sincerity. This can be done much better, by teams of doctors & nurses, water and medicines, teachers and child-care, before engineers and technicians. And never, never police, army and preachers, in that ascending orders.

By facing this squarely, knowing US is now either failed in this mission, or continuously paying the heavy price, in blood and in gold, with no hope of returns?

A better avenue for US is to ask for the help of international community to move this away from a mission of occupying to a task of humanitarian assistance.

The only question is how could we convince the world?

For the realist leaders, motivated by profits, they know very well no one can afford US to fail, extremism will spread to their door steps.

For the idealist, humanitarian leaders, they know they cannot look other ways when the death of civilians are escalating, beyond the scale of all recent conflicts combined, in Eastern Europe, in Africa.

For the Muslim world, the world will come to respect you and leave your lifestyles, culture, Religion as you practice. No one can coerce you to subscribe to their system, which is after all full of imperfections, which is the only constant in all man-made.

This approach is definitely more effective, more definite, faster, and would last.
American not only can leave the difficulties behind, rebuild international image, and definitely would win a trusted ally like Japan even long after American governance. American did not rely on democratic election, nor dismantle the Industrial giants that initiated the militarization.America is the only super power today. There is no one close behind, and definitely no one has the strength to destroy America.Only by self-doing, would America totally, permanently destroy herself.One worth thinking“No matter is a white cat, black cat, one that can catch mice is a good cat.” Deng Xiao Peng said.

No matter George Senior, George Junior, Elected, or otherwise into the seat, you can do it, only need wisdom listed above.

Lim, Swee Keng
SM(MIT), MBA(Law)
Inventor, Engineer
Philosophical Thinker

“Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN – 9810513757
“Dynamite Economy”cognose.blogspot.com
“Tao of Energy - the most effective power to solve key contemporary challenges”
(Stagnated Economy, Rural Poverty, Energy, Environment) www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy (0) -- Summary

2007-08-13T08:55:00.000-07:00

0. Summary

All the world major stock markets are facing several cycles of violent swings.
The ability to sustain so many cycles of such violence, underlined it is not a bubble.

The biggest corporations, with largest profits are Financial Institutions, and Energy giants. They are producing around 9% of profit.

Financial institutions, Retail, Distribution are critical lubricants for market efficiency and energy is the lowest value elements among all factor of production. They are not real wealth generators.

The largest wealth generating industry is the automobile industries, and its return is only 1%. Worse, largest General Motor and fourth placed Ford are making huge losses. Combining with other wealth generators like, electronics, electrics, aircrafts, their profit is merely 1/3 and 2/5 of Financial Institutions and Energy giants, respectively.[1]

This is analogous to a patient with arteries (banks) bigger than muscles (wealth generators). Huge amount of energy (wealth) is sending through. Yet they find only some weak muscles that are unable to consume this energy to labor, to generate new food (wealth). The arteries will be clogged with excessive wealth (inefficiency), yet driven by zealous heart (hyper-active investors), and soon the patient will have blood vessel exploded, brain hemorrhaged, stroked, paralyzed and perished in a totally warped manner.

This is a world economy ready to explode like dynamite.

Analysis is provided here, solutions will be presented in series.

[1] http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2007/full_list/index.html

Dynamite Economy (0) -- Chart

2007-08-13T08:45:00.000-07:00

Dynamite Economy (1) -- What is a Bubble

2007-08-13T08:44:00.001-07:00

1. What is a Bubble

Today, investors, advisors, leaders hold caution in their hearts even painting rosy pictures to others.
Every one of them is on their toe and thinks it is a bubble, recalling the Japanese experience in late 1980s.

What is a bubble?

Bubble Economy of Japan was due to the over confidence in their own economic prowess. The phenomenal boom was engineered by innovating new household electrics and electronics. Every Japanese was in euphoria, buying up a few movie industries, real estates like Rockefeller Center, Brazilian Coffee farms, and countless others. The world was large enough to absorb these neu-riche without causing much inflation.

When Japanese’s innovation slowed down, market saturated. This wealth-generating locomotive simmered off, economy bubble burst, dreams shattered. Tokyo Stock Exchange Indices were shaved by factors, and never return till today. Soon this will the second decades Japanese stayed at the valley.

This was a Japan-centric boom. This affected only political, economic situation in Japan. The impact was neither deep nor far-reaching. Wealth generated was relatively small. Once the wealth generator slower down, dreams gone. It was a bubble, merely a bubble. This is what a bubble is.

Even we look at the Great Depression, Dow Jones Industrial Average was chopped by more than half, after the crash, Oct 29, 1929. It led up to Second World War.

From history, we can see what will happen, when an economy ran out of steam, and the effervescence sizzled off.

There is not much excess wealth to support the market, swinging the market up and down. So the dreams gone, the bubble burst.

Dynamite Economy (2) -- Forecasted - 2001

2007-08-13T08:38:00.000-07:00

2. Forecasted - 2001

Around 2000, after my interactions with leaders of technology, economy and nations, i sensed that the economy is coming to stagnation. Because of the urgency, i alerted[1] my leader that technology, particularly electronics, had crossed into the plateau of a S-curve. Three decades of rapid economic growth, after Vietnam War (that ended in mid 70s), is no longer sustainable.

In that report, three possible scenarios were stated, and subsequent happenings verified this foresight.
1. Discover Immense Market of Consumptions. Market size of consumption bigger than China and India. Chinese government spares no effort to develop rural market consumption. Unfortunately, the hardworking ancient civilization out produced not just their demands, also world demands.
2. Initiate a war to destroy productivity. On April 1st, 2001, there was a mid-air incident involving American reconnaissance plane. It was crippled and landed in Hainan. i wrote a note formally alerting nation’s leader that the next conflict is likely to be in Central Asia, Afghan is the most likely theatre. Within half a year, not only war in Afghan was created, soon Iraq was dragged into. Technology has provided the world with instantaneous graphical reports of war scene. World leaders, common people realized the terrible cost of war, vanity of invasion. First world’s armies, industries were spared. Damage to world productivities is neither wide spreading nor deeply felt. Human’s hearts mitigated their might.
3. Create New Industries bigger than Electronics Industries. After seven years of inventions and examinations, at least 8 new industries not only can be created, they will address key issues civilization is facing. They shall be presented, in series.

After these analyses, a clear opinion was presented to the leader of our national investment arm. i strongly recommended to switch investment from Hi-tech stocks, to retails, telecommunications, banking and finance. This minimizes exposure to high risk, long gestation, low return ventures. Another consideration is to focus all strength to feel the pulse of world economy, to be able to detect first signs of troubles, of opportunities.

Above all, the most valuable is to detect the emergence of significant new industries.

Within a day, this opinion received resonance. Within few months, three of top ten richest listed by Forbes came from Wal-Mart family. Wal-Mart since then has stayed as Fortune number 1. The insight, foresight brought pronounced benefit to the nation.
Reflecting, as long as if you seek to the root cause of economic activities and motivation of people, anyone would have made similar conclusions.
[1] Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities, June 2001, edited February 2003. “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom, Chapter 2, Seeking Truth”. Winter 2005. ISBN 9810-313757, also published at www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy (3) -- Expired Growth Engines

2007-08-13T08:34:00.000-07:00

3. Expired Growth Engines

Over the last thirty years, there were endless new electronics devices that fit everyone’s needs, buying power. Immense new consumption thus created.

This no longer is the reality. The reality is that most of the new products, such as LCD screen, MP3 players, digital cameras, are simpler to manufacture, many assembly workers lost their jobs, small photo-shops also closed down. This impacted the roots of jobs creation, which is the most important driving force for any sustainable economic development.

Darling of venture funds, Biotechnology, is not a solution. It was made clear then in 2001, that it is not a solution. In 2006, with deeper understanding, i submitted that Biotech is merely an extension of medicine and herbalists, improving agricultural produce, health and healing. It is important for animal kingdom and civilization alike. But it is unlikely people will spend 10% of their disposable income, swallow 200 gm of drugs, change a few organs in their life time. This is the yardstick electronics industry demonstrated in order to be a significant economic force.

Bio-tech will progress
but will never be a pillar of economy!
even though may be a pillar for human well-being
The change of R&D directions of Singapore underlines this point.

Dynamite Economy (4) -- State of the Economy

2007-08-13T08:29:00.000-07:00

4. State of the Economy

The greatest danger is not unemployment the size of Europeans, Americans. The great recession in 1930 we have witnessed, many experience gained, many theories written, many solutions ready to be tested.

This is not about poverty, this is not about lack of funds.
This is about:
1. The number of excessive labor, India, China, is unprecedented.
2. 30 years of electronics boom has created wealth of magnitude unprecedented. With productive Chinese-Indian labor, this wealth creation is now sky rocketing[1]. This wealth will make money flooding every channel. In same report it was stated that Allan Greenspan will become the least powerful person, when interest rate is close to zero, money is freely available. He could no longer use Monetary Policy to effectively moderate market unless he ventured into negative interest rate.
3. When there is no new technological challenge, the intellects using their complex brains, created a new field, Financial Engineering. They repackage high-risk assets into sub-prime tradable. This already defies the primary principle of
a. Engineering – reduce intermediaries to improve efficiency and through put,
b. Management – Transparency & Accountability.
This complexity seduced a lot of interested parties holding real cash, wealth. Good quality assets are made to support poor quality debts. This not only insulated banks from high risk lending, this boosted the values of financial institutions. This bloated already excessive wealth into gigantic Goliath. This explained how Financial Institutions, a means for improve market efficiency, lower cost of wealth generation, eventually earn 3 times the return of real wealth generator.

This is garbage wrapped in pretty gift boxes.
Those who think it is Christmas, found dynamites place in their socks.

4. Globalization provided the vehicle for the eyes of the wealthy, to exert his finger of inflation, to escalate at his fancy, the price of every plot of land, every piece of arts, every head of athletics, even every cake of tea, every gram of chocolate.

These four points clearly stated today’s economy is supported by excessive labor, over-abundance of wealth, AND fabrication of wealth from debts.

Its reach is all-penetrating, its effect is excessive; its consequences are long lasting. It is not bubble.

So we must determine what is a greater danger?
Is it powerless, easily burst bubble?
Is it solid gold gilded dynamite?
It is indeed this over-abundance wealth that found no place to invest.

This over-abundance wealth is moving into every corner of the world, moving every item that can change hand, physical, virtual, real, fabricated, existing, will never exist…….
[1] US$1.2 trillion foreign exchange, increasing at $1billion every day, EIU, NY, May 25, 2007

Dynamite Economy (5) -- Feeble Solutions

2007-08-13T08:26:00.000-07:00

5. Feeble Solutions

The stellar growth of Japan in the 70s and 80s was fueled by Sony and the like. The regain of leadership by American, in the 90s was by IT/Communications. Clinton without IT will face similar challenges as Carter/Reagan facing Sony. We can quite clearly conclude that locomotives for economic growth were not, and will never be created by politicians, economists. These Joseph Stiglitz stated in his recent Raffles Speech in Singapore.

Even seven years latter, only few like DeLong[1] written about this phenomenon, based on dated numbers. In a rapidly changing market, knowing the number, without the cause, nor the scale, is as good as telling you yesterday was sunny. Others, Management Gurus like Michael Porters, have not demonstrated such foresight and insight into the cause and effect, scale and gravity of problems. This can be seen from his recommendation to Singapore government to focus on petrochemicals, fertilizers, and plastics. When low price for farm produce, stagnated electronics, these would not provide a substantial growth path.

Technology, innovations are not able to create enough investment opportunities to absorb over-abundance of wealth, of labor. So funds are rarely invested in Industrial facilities, production spaces. There are no job creations; there is no real wealth generation. The multiplier effects in economic axioms cannot be put into action.

Worse, excessive liquidity inflated the price of even every cake of tea, every gram of chocolate, even pay you to borrow (sub-prime loans), pay to buy others debt (negative value assets repackaged), to beyond imagination.

This demonstrated a fact that experts without grasping the root cause of issues, not only they cannot have foresight, they are even unable to solve problems at hands, not to dream effectively at the root.
[1] DeLong, Bradford, 2007. “Fear of Finance”, Project Syndicate, http://www.project-syndicate.org/.

Dynamite Economy (6) -- Greatest Danger

2007-08-13T08:22:00.000-07:00

6. Greatest Danger

The inflated pricing of assets, is supported by over-abundance, that spinning around looking for way to spend. It is without check and balance, supply and demand. Therefore not only it is not transient, is not trivial, in fact it can last beyond a moment.

This pricing at free will, will soon increase the cost of living, wasting resources, ignore the most critical element of any survival,

efficiency.

These will severely impact the lower rung in the society.

Without new Industries, there is no new employment, not only there is no wealth creation, there is no generous consumption appetite from the populace. The wealth of the richer will not grow.

Using vocabulary from the economy, excess wealth will convert necessities to luxury ornaments, the higher the price, the better it sells. The opulent design of hand-phone, the branding of tea leaves, chocolate, to beyond monthly income of common workers is what is often reported, but how many of us realize the cause, the impact, the danger?

Using common sense, this is a market without check and balance, management without efficiency as objectives, resulting in the detachment of price from value. This will definitely lead to wastage of all resources, polarization of society, unrest in the world.

In the last few months, we witnessed few rounds of violent rise and fall in the stock market.
This is an indicator that we are stepping into an era of greatest danger.

Dynamite Economy (7) -- Dynamite

2007-08-13T07:59:00.000-07:00

7. Dynamite

Great Recession was still bounded by human logical response, restrained by limited reach and wealth, protected by sovereignty and borders, diluted by distance and time taken to travel.

At this moment, most national governments prop up the market. This action does not create new wealth, nor expand employment. It is only disbursement of public wealth into a few fortunate hands.

This current violent swing will continue, because sovereign funds have overwhelming reserve.
This can sustain, but not longer than 2 years.

At this point, wealthy are playing stocks and real estate.
They are not factor of production.
Therefore does not affect common people life, business profitability, social serenity.

But when wealth held by disciplined, national-interest centric government are disbursed into the hand of private, they have no such responsibilities, nor through the rigor of election. They will manipulate other exciting frontiers. Factor of production are of the appropriate size.

When such volatility spread from stocks, which is not factor of production into key factors of productions, energy and material, transport and communication, rent & taxation, remuneration and kickbacks. Everything physical, virtual, cannot be priced but can be bought, will be chess pieces in the hand of the well-endowed. Pricing is floating without attachment to logic nor reality, market will turn beyond the realm of Great Recession.[1]

This is a dynamite in the making !!

In summary, economy of today is resulting from lack of new growth engines to invest the unprecedented wealth cumulated during the three decades. This over-abundance wealth will lead to lost of conscience and responsibility to develop appropriate policies, relevant product and services, improving efficiency and quality of life for the society.

Without such understanding, we are seeing governments lost directions while privates get richer.
Factories closing down, banks are glowing brighter.

This is worse than
cannibalizing others wealth, self-destruction of own wealth generators.
This is self-destruction of factor of production for wealth generators.
No one, private, government, banks, manufacturers will benefit from such situation.

New understanding, direction and solution for civilization shall be presented in subsequent articles.

Dynamite is the most effective means to breakthrough hardest of obstacles!!!

[1] some philosophical explanation can be asked from ideas@cts-ideas.com. It needs to explain using audience specific knowledge and expertise.

Sub-prime Turbulence - Will Govt Intervene help the market??

2007-08-11T06:26:00.000-07:00

Comments on Federal Reserve & Central Banks pump billions into market to save the credit crisis triggerred by Sub-prime loan , original news available from: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118673195378094167.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Federal Reserve, even the whole world governments together cannot solve this problem.
This is not Lack of money, it is TOO MUCH money find no place to invest. So even inferior financial products (e.g.sub-prime loan) have attracted more than enough interested parties.
At this moment, most national govts have enough reserve, from IT boom, to prop up the market. This action is only disbursement of public wealth into a few fortunate private, not creating new wealth, nor expanding employment.

this current violent swing will continue.
this cannot sustain longer than 2 years.

At this point, wealth are playing stocks and real-estate, which are not factor of production. Therefore does not affect common people life, business profitability. when private has more wealth, they will manipulate virgin frontier, which are factor of production, energy, material, property, utility. This is inflation. Then the whole world will be in deepest of challenge.
And by then government may not have the deep chest to mitigate this.

Economy is moved by business
it is only business can create new industries.
State only facilitate.
Without Sony, etc Japan would not come up, Regan has hard time.
Without PC/Cell Phone/Network, US would not overtake Japan. Clinton had good time.

We need new industry bigger than electronics to absorb the liquidity, to create wealth, else too much brain is used to package wealth and not generating wealth.

prediction of this, including negative interest rate (sub-prime) was made as early as 2001. ("Real Economy, Reality of Economy, Economic Realities" cognose.blogspot.com, also collated in "Cognose-Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom" ISBN9810513757)

We need to create new industries bigger than Electronics, as predicted in 2001, will provide you with greater details of 8 industries that can help the world to cross this difficult moment.

Real Economy, Reality of Economy, Economic Realities

2007-08-05T04:51:00.000-07:00

An enhanced brief for a more vivid, succinct oratorio conveyance of the ideas

Sciences derived from Scire in Latin, which merely means know.
To solve economic problems, we cannot derive merely from historical trends, but we must know the cause and effect, which may succinctly be termed as Forces of Nature and Nature of human .

Scientists and Engineers have abandoned the use of extrapolation for non-animate (particles or Brownian movement) and animate (Ants walk) entities.

We need to know the major forces, if not the root causes. Just like we need to know the very motivation of the journey of an ant, not how has the journey gone so far. While noting that motivation is not easily characterized, it is possible, necessary to identify.

Mathematics was developed through rigorous compliance with law of nature. The medieval and renaissance scientists had persevered, with rigor and fervent in order for their jewels of discoveries to pass down through brutal scrutiny and persecutions.

Social Scientists, in particular Economists have not learnt from these. Mathematics, for applications on Social Sciences, were not developed through equal rigor, rigor of study of interactions amongst the law of nature and nature of people. Many tools for modeling inanimate entities, were used, are being used for modeling of systems whose performance are heavily dependent on behaviors exists only in animate entities, such as extends of needs and ease of use for realms beyond physiological satisfactions.

By design, ignorance or arrogance, many capitalized on extravagance in mathematics to impress. Effects are correlated with manifestations of its historical equal. It is as irrelevant as predicting a car would drive right into a wall, just because it has been driving straight. How can, how can the course of a car be modeled merely by the route it took without considering the underlying forces that changes the velocity, even less so the purpose of that journey partake?

For any economic model to be acceptable to decision makers, a simple test would be to test the model on a much simpler, controllable small system, e.g. a match between two well recorded sports teams. Where parameters are lesser, well documented, the surrounding factors are easier to control and the outcome is simpler, easily quantified and more profitable for modeling experts.

If it cannot even satisfactorily model such simpler entities, then modeling of more complex systems, such as national and global economy can produce relevance? Some ways are initiated here in a primitive form. This is not because a refined form is not ready, but the purpose of this article is to provoke the rethinking of thinkers.

Do not use equations to model social-economical systems, if the understanding of the fundamental system dynamics and forces are not cognized. Even they are cognized, they need to take into deeper realm of cognition, to intangible parameters, such as motivation. Which i do not believe Economic systems can be modeled without.
Dec 2005
The development of human culture, society is very much measured by the strength of the economy. When the economy is healthy, generally the social order, the arts, the life styles are better. When the economy is in chaos, not only the social order, the arts, the life styles are impacted. Quality of the next generation, who experienced the chaos, would be impacted. The end results are not necessarily chaotic. An analogy, the generation who went through the epidemic of small pox, need not necessary is weaker. In fact, most become stronger, against small pox in particular, chaotic virus in general.

With the advancement of economic theory, the observation of the economy becomes easier. There are supplies and demands, there are employment indices, there are trade and current account balances, there are baskets of currencies, there are inflation indices, etc. With the advancement of computation modeling, operation research theory, the modeling of the economy, and the society are thought to be possible.

If we refer to Thomas Kaplan thesis on Management Accounting, “Lost of Relevance”, that laments the failure of financial-accounting-based management accounting, the real feel of the efficacy, if not even the efficiency, of the business operation is lost. The analysis no doubt can be precise, its relevance have lost.

The same trend happens in Economics. That the fundamental assumption of economic theories is fast overwhelmed by the evolution in society motivated by innovations and advancement in communication. The realities are no longer observed by economists, central bankers and investors. In place of these, the most effective tools for stimulation and suppression of economic dull drum and overheat, are assumed to be by fiscal and monetary policies. The tools that are often used are interest rate, taxation and budget balance. When cross border trading is concerned, the tariff barrier, the non-tariff barriers are deemed to be the only tools. The indicators are budget, trade and current accounts balances.

This is so powerful when the interest rate was at median and the growth was limited by cost of capitals. Alan Greenspan was coined as the most powerful man on planet earth, even eclipses that of the President. But in a recession, when the interest rate, corrected to inflation, is almost zero. There is no room for the further stimulation of the economy by lowering the cost of money supply, which is technically zero. Turning interest rate to negative is academically possible and psychologically worrisome. No known application of negative interest rate was practiced and known in the basic form. Would he then be coined the most powerless man? It is an unfair and unkind statement, however, it reflects the reality of our powerlessness in face of the real economy.

Modeling of all phenomenon, nature or social, are merely simplification from reality. With limited human wisdom, we could not totally comprehend the reality, if ever collection of all necessary and up to date data is possible. Therefore, the understanding of the economic reality must be often related to the real market, than the secondary indicator.

There is a good lesson that i learnt from observing many forecasting methods, for mechanical systems, for computation machines, for factory operations, for market demands, for business entities performance, for market movement, for society progression, and for world economic outlook. The forecasts are pretty much evolved from the yesteryears Operation Research tools developed during the Second World War. If the mechanical system is under strict constancy, the input and environment do not change drastically, then the outputs are predictable. That is the best lesson we can learn from history. However, when the environments change, change rapidly. The organizations and technology change, change dramatically. The markets change, change seemingly unpredictably. No forecasting tools is going to be valid, if all the input is a first order derivatives from the historical data. Even the data were collected very accurately through most sophisticated Resource Planning Systems to Point of Sales terminals. Some very short term forecast is effected by Resource Planning System. Even the most complex analyses which may includes heuristics and artificial reasoning, no system has yet able to forecast to a sufficient time horizon with satisfactory accuracy. The over confidence in modeling a simple man-made machines, derived the false confidence in the mathematical modeling of economic reality. This resemblance the Engineers efforts in predicting ants walks, atom movements coined “Brownean motions” when computation resource was abundance. This has wasted many decades of human intelligence. Do Economists learnt from such lessons?

The mathematics and computations are the best clients of data, precise data. However, the economy of today, is no longer pushed by the foundations of yesteryears. The movement of economy is pulled by new technology that is on the verge of commercialization.

Everyone in the economic and political circles knows that America, and the world at large, experienced the longest sustained growth in the past decades. Some attributed to the prudent monetary and fiscal policy. Some attributed to the wise leadership of the Administration. Some attributed to the peace and few natural disasters. Very few of you, who so often traveled by planes, asked the passengers next to you, which industry they worked for, which country they came from. It is the best opportunity to assess the market movement in the grossest sense and yet be accurate enough to see the medium term of few years.

In 1980, you probably meet a lot of Japanese, Americans and some Taiwanese, few Europeans. The industry they were in very much likely to be portable consumer electronics, micro-computers and its storages. As years progress, the frequent travelers becomes more likely to be from industries that involved in notebook computers, software, data storage, printers, telecommunications, new infrastructure for computer and mobile network, and then portable telecommunications. This is a long list of progression for the last decade or two. This has sustained the growth, by first creating new market, new demand, then employment. Higher quality and numerous employments resulted in increased purchasing power. This in turn absorbs the produce in these newly formed market. So the market becomes a quasi equilibrium and yet growing. The market was growing. The investors were happy. The population was employed. The new technology is no longer so sophisticated. Therefore the deployment is easy and therefore the manufacturing base expanded off shore to Ireland, Latin America, South East Asia, and now to India, China. With the huge population in China, the economy is booming to beyond any event recorded in prior history. However, the competitiveness and high technical competency do cast a shadow on where the developed world could anchor their future in.

If we were able to extend classical economic theory to prepare us better for this challenge, we would have rode the curve better and landed softer. One possible extension, is probably within the appetite of classical economists, is the concept of basket of various key components. It used to be currency, commodities, household supplies, etc. Now, to predict the future, both technology and market are two key aspects. I have not sufficient wisdom to provide full solutions. But by looking at the rapidly evolving NASDEQ etc grouping of the stocks, we probably agreed that Telecommunications, Networking, Portable Intelligent Devices, Mobile Communications were the key to observe, say few years ago.

Are we too late? There is nothing to late if we gain some wisdom, each step we prowl forward. Even it was a failure. From this, we could see that the real sustainers of the last two decades were new market, significant market created. The markets were not mere old markets’ substitute. But new satisfaction generators that really fill new desires.

When you travel this time around, most likely your neighbor, if not yourself, are Intel, Nokia, Microsoft, CISCO or their competitors. However, if you looked into their eyes, except may be Microsoft and Intel, the zests are likely to be burning out. And there are no new savior applications on the scene. Palm and Bluetooth did not deliver. 3G are not concrete yet. Digital Cameras did help a few Japanese makers afloat by its greater volume. Unfortunately, these are mere replacement and not a new market, like what GSM and its operating costs, has created and provided a key booster for the last 5 years. Without looking out of the cabin windows, you know we are in a slide, sliding downward. Who are going to be hit, the operators of the flights you sit it, exactly at this moment. Technology is the first tell tales, Air transport is the latter measurement yard stick. If there is nothing in sight, who would commits his resources to work on the yet to be sold?

So do not believe that interest rate can generate sustainable growth, especially when it is zero-rated post-correction.

There are three potential scenarios, first a new promise is found that keeps every one busy, fed and forget about strife for a while. Second a bigger market than China is found to keep all the matured products shipping. Third, find an excuse and pump in money for an outrages defense budget. (Sorry, this is not meant to be so unkind, the writing was done before September 11th, 2001.)

Economic reality is a reality that affects every one. Many wars, man-made calamities were results of uprising of people who lost their possessions and hopes, or manipulation by leaders for riches, for power, for insatiable appetite.

With closely intertwined world economy, the forces to counter any singular tyrant, to assist pockets of poverty is closer to reality and they are favorable to world peace, progress and harmony.

No single central bank, no single currency, no single government budget, even the collective of all these among many countries could determine the markets. This is a more efficient market, beyond Oligolistic market place, while a totally free market do not exist even in dreams of mind sanity.

Democracy and freedom in market place of physical items is closer to reality which benefits everyone,
than
Democracy and freedom in ideological realm is getting farther away from realization as civilization progresses. Note On Freedom in 2-Cognized Truth

Do we predict where ants walk by where they last traveled?

or

Do we see if they are heading to the nest, or do we place a cube of candy ahead near to the route ants would take?
Which is a better, wiser choice?
Which is easier to do, more effective and profitable to ants and men?

Do we model the economy has reached the rock bottom, nicely coined structural unemployment, cannot get any worst, and the only way is up?

or

Do we strive to identify what is the best way to create meaningful employment, even giving up automation, high-tech. Would it not serve a more effective, efficient and yet achievable inducement? And avoid bloody civil commotions?

Which is a better, wiser choice?
Which is easier to do, more effective and profitable to commoners
and leaders?

Edited after Bloody Civil violence in Europe
Nov, Dec 2005

Where are we Heading

2006-10-19T00:14:00.000-07:00

Lim Swee Keng

ISBN 9810 513757
www.ct-ideas.com

Civilization progresses
in different stages
on different continents

Civilization progresses
Progresses ceaselessly
Despite experiencing many setbacks

Some said it is due to Civilized Culture?
Does he mean result is the cause ?
It is not even an answer !!!

Some said it is due to Technology
Not only it is saying the result of result is the cause !
It is an answer without understanding !!!

What is the driving force behind technology?
Where is the source of technology?
Where is technology leading us to?

Civilization progresses
Because people start to record what they observed!
With these records, knowledge start to accumulate!

People start to reason what they observed!
People start to check on their reasoning,
with reasons or unreasonable!!

People in greater number congregated!
With unity, strength multiplied!!!
people from diverse background communicated!

With diversity, ideas are checked !
Truths, closer truths are revealing !!!

People inpower (religious, political, economical, military)

checked these knowledge with brutality

beyond logic, even without understanding.

They check it not for seeking truth, verifying truth,

but worrying these knowledge would erode their power, their dominions.

Their action, may have been perceived as detrimental to progress in Sciences. Many great scientists were persecuted. These brutality actually dictated only the truth, the rigorously proven truth, proven by the most fervent scientists survived, survived stubbornly, despite persecutions, barbaric ways of persecutions. This was one of the most effective ways to build the strict disciplines of sciences, fired up the wise.

The western approach is a reminder to that of Shi Huang Di (The First Emperor of China), a thousands years ahead of the west. Whose dictatorship united China’s culture, forged a unified linage of many dynasties.

A wise dictator need not use religions nor high ideals, NOT crusade nor awesome forces, to unify people, to improve the life of his people as well as others. They compiled useful knowledge. They use these wisdom to its fullest.

While the East, dreams on, seeking trades, self-adequacy without noted desire to conquest, except one.

While the Middle East declined without a credible successor to the Ottoman. Even with Ottoman, the impact, were not as far reaching as Colonist Britain, because Ottoman’s reach was hardly beyond oceans.

While the west measure their success by the extent of land, resources under their full control, many Colonistic empires transgressed the whole world.

The only benefit Colonists brought to civilization is the cross commune amongst continents. With Britain as the eventual greatest Colonist that transgressed the globe, English start to become the common language.

However the greatest benefit is derived from the dominion passing, continuously, from the great Britain to an even greater United States.

With greater United States, Telecommunications, Computers, Operating System, Key Office Software, Internet, Searches of diverse archives were being unified into one singular, comprehensive communication platform.

These unification of tools and monopoly of power by the United States is a blessing to forge better understandings amongst cultures, amongst nations, which would derive another hundreds years of progress based on congregations of wisdoms in diverse dimensions, overcome over productivity by improving the environment.

Better use of this unified tools, would bring the world together, discover old, relevant wisdoms, developed new solutions effectively for the benefit of people, to improve natural environment.

America stands in the best place to lead and to foster, this pragmatic yet idealist, highly ideal yet achievable, future.

Overzealous dominion may destroy the hard earned leadership. Alternative new world order may not be lead by National Leaders, but Business leaders, which are neither elected nor checked, even less so, balanced.

No systems can counter the ignorance of leaders
Only wise counsels could

Ignorance is the source of arrogant
No education can fill the abysses of ignorance
Only wise counsels could

If Ignorance is removed
Arrogance vaporized

If Arrogance vaporized
Self-respect and Mutual Respect returns
Seek others strength would lead to
Continuous strive for seeking truth
Would keep every one busy

Peace and Harmony
everyone could
could Enjoy

On Freedom

2006-10-19T00:00:00.000-07:00

The interactions amongst people become more frequent
The distance between people interacting can be infinite
The action of one individual, therefore can affect more others
more frequently, further away, and can be more severe

Civilization teaches us to weigh our action carefully.
This results in more self-conscious thoughts,
more self-regulating actions
Therefore less freedom necessary be
However, we span more space and more media are available.
Therefore, we have more spectrum of freedom space.
But for each space, our freedom would necessarily be reduced, by self or imposed restrains
If the self-imposed restrain is inadequate, either others would be harmed, or regulation by others need to be imposed
Though we have increased, the spectrum of domains available to us.
We have less freedom in each domain
We have more domains to express less Freedom

With Self respect and respect others
Your lesser freedom is not felt

Model of Freedom - America

On this land, the proud Americans congregatedof the best from the world
from the last slavery in modern history
Greatest challenges they facedCountless courageous lives sacrificed
To bring this land forth, to the forefront of the world
Fighting for liberty

for unification

for democracy

for freedom

for equality

For only American would know the values of these
since they strived some of most arduous struggles
Endlessly, ceaselessly, till tomorrow
On this land, for this land, more than anywhere else in the world
They shall set example for Freedom and Democracy
even Freedom and Democracy are as elusive as clouds
Their spirit would be like the Sun
the light shall shineth through eventually to the world
No barricade can hinder the leaders
Leaders of civilization
Leaders seeking humane ideals
Abundance enjoyment all enjoy

On Truth & Reality

2006-09-02T06:48:00.000-07:00

Reality is what is existing or existed.
Truth is the laws governing the existence.

Reality may be against Truth
Reality against Truth may be destroyed,
even before Truth is discovered
discovered by even few.

MOST OFTEN TRUTHS are NOT even KNOWN

Ignoring Truth and
imposing Reality that is against Truth on others,
would not only inflicting pain on others.

Would inflict pain and hurt on self
even to many generations latter!!!

----------------------------------
Sir Winston Churchill:
“I knew everything…
“I do not accept that the dog in the manger has the final right to that manger”
“Stronger Race…,Worldly Wise……...”

His descendent has paid dearly for his words
If he believed in his Godly blessing
If he knew how adorable his most revered descendent is
If he knew she is more revered, globally,
than his wit, his war labor,
Would he use his God’s wit to dispense his God’s grace or…...
Any more descendent along his linage?

truth or reality
Reality Definitely Existed
Truth Prevail or ever been discovered?
Does Truth need to be Undiscovered?