Around 2000, after my interactions with leaders of technology, economy and nations, i sensed that the economy is coming to stagnation. Because of the urgency, i alerted[1] my leader that technology, particularly electronics, had crossed into the plateau of a S-curve. Three decades of rapid economic growth, after Vietnam War (that ended in mid 70s), is no longer sustainable.
In that report, three possible scenarios were stated, and subsequent happenings verified this foresight.
1. Discover Immense Market of Consumptions. Market size of consumption bigger than China and India. Chinese government spares no effort to develop rural market consumption. Unfortunately, the hardworking ancient civilization out produced not just their demands, also world demands.
2. Initiate a war to destroy productivity. On April 1st, 2001, there was a mid-air incident involving American reconnaissance plane. It was crippled and landed in Hainan. i wrote a note formally alerting nation’s leader that the next conflict is likely to be in Central Asia, Afghan is the most likely theatre. Within half a year, not only war in Afghan was created, soon Iraq was dragged into. Technology has provided the world with instantaneous graphical reports of war scene. World leaders, common people realized the terrible cost of war, vanity of invasion. First world’s armies, industries were spared. Damage to world productivities is neither wide spreading nor deeply felt. Human’s hearts mitigated their might.
3. Create New Industries bigger than Electronics Industries. After seven years of inventions and examinations, at least 8 new industries not only can be created, they will address key issues civilization is facing. They shall be presented, in series.
After these analyses, a clear opinion was presented to the leader of our national investment arm. i strongly recommended to switch investment from Hi-tech stocks, to retails, telecommunications, banking and finance. This minimizes exposure to high risk, long gestation, low return ventures. Another consideration is to focus all strength to feel the pulse of world economy, to be able to detect first signs of troubles, of opportunities.
Above all, the most valuable is to detect the emergence of significant new industries.
Within a day, this opinion received resonance. Within few months, three of top ten richest listed by Forbes came from Wal-Mart family. Wal-Mart since then has stayed as Fortune number 1. The insight, foresight brought pronounced benefit to the nation.
Reflecting, as long as if you seek to the root cause of economic activities and motivation of people, anyone would have made similar conclusions.
[1] Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities, June 2001, edited February 2003. “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom, Chapter 2, Seeking Truth”. Winter 2005. ISBN 9810-313757, also published at www.cts-ideas.com
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