Homosexual – Causes & Solutions

Wednesday, 24 October 2007
http://cognose.blogspot.com
Cognose Lim Swee Keng
Cognize Before Happening
Solve Beyond Causes
（1223 words）

History

Homosexual is not a new happening.

One commonly used word referring to homosexual, Sodomy, sourced from Old Testament. So the practice must be more than few thousands years old.

So the expression that Homosexual is a modern manifestation, the argument that because it is modern, it must be accepted by society, else the society is out-dated, is an argument worth not rebutting.

Morality is not frivolous. Basically it is guiding the basic behaviour of individuals, communities, to stay healthy, live in harmony with others and healthily propagate.

Morality, Cultures, Religions from all diversities prescribed severe punishment to incest, but not to homosexual. Basically, incest will produce children defective, sufferings. While homosexual doe not produce children to suffer.

In Old Testament, God did not punish Sodomites until they schemed harms to God sent. Same as in civilization through out history under even average leaders without fervent allegiance, as long as no harms were brought to public notice, seldom punishment unleash against homosexuals.

So this approach has been valid, effective for thousands of years till today.

Root Causes – Individual

The causes for individual can be in-born or family brought up.

If the collective bigger society has wisdom, compassion, then they will extend understanding, guidance, love and help to those who are suffering.

I was on the understanding that civilization, mechanization made the need of conquering and defending land, of heavy labour less often needed. Men are therefore deprived of the needs, opportunities and demand to become more muscular. So the uniqueness of men is diminishing.

While most machines, economic activities, social situation made women capable of almost all aspect of living. Women do not have the need for man’s strength and power to defend their chaste, to labour their provision.

Technology and Civilization have made man and woman more equal.

We need to see to how to address this aspects by creating, developing machines, opportunities, environment to enhance the needs for each others’ strength, strength complementing, man-woman.
Root Causes – Social

There are countless, among them many are children, living under starvation, poverty, brutality, slavery. They count more than homosexuals. But we hear little, acted not.

Why homosexual is so pronounced? So forceful in lobbying for policy, law changes? Why is it spreading like wild fire all over the world?

Freedom of Expression, Democratic systems are giving those who are endowed with means of influencing, arts of expressing a space, an exaggerated space to magnify their power of influencing, to expand the reach of propaganda, without restraints, without boundary.

This is the fundamental weakness of Freedom of Expression, Democracy.

The representation is not by number of people affected, but by the decibels, frequency of rhetoric, colourful of preaching, over time, space.

The representation is not by gravity of the issues, but by ability of provoking sensation, regardless of its importance, priority, less so its gravity of impact, long-term impact in the invisible future.

This fundamental weakness will be the line of cracks, the fault of collapse, the fire for self-destructions, Freedom, Democracy.

If you believe in Evolution: Freedom must exist in lone soaring eagles, roaming animals. Democracy must exist among simpler communal insects, penguins, before most sophisticate communal living Chimpanzees, evolves into Human. Order and Law then come into place.

If you believe in History, Scripture, Freemen must exist before they can be made into slaves.

From time to time, Anarchy took place, Autocracy took its place.
Freedom exists before Communal Living.
Democracy exists before Governments can be formed.
Freedom and Democracy are not modern; they are not even milestones, therefore never the destiny of history.

They are merely endless exchanges between organized and re-organized, connected by disorganized.

When responsible Freedom is abused, Governance is misused, Freedom lost, Government collapse.

So the theme that Homosexual is modern, equal opportunities for homosexual, marriage for same sex are preached. It must be preached by history ignorant, socially irresponsible.

Marriage is not a show of freedom, nor democracy.
Marriage is a ritual, a law to ensure that parents are accountable to their children, incest does not happen. Though no marriage, ritual, law are perfect, they help, they mitigate, they minimize.

Passion among same sex, do not produce children, free you are.

Homosexual, if you want freedom, why ask for more attention, social commitment, legal and social bondage?

Homosexuals, do not be misled by people with purpose, agendas, seeking fames and power.


Root Causes – Technology

However, lately, it is said that many homosexuals are in-born. It did not occur to me, to my parent generations. Among hundred thousands i encountered, very few are those inclined, and those inclined, with social understanding, help, live the life majority of the society live.

But it impressed me, and others, that many are changing lately, and more homosexual are born.

Science has given technology.
Technology has provided us many things for our using, for our wearing, for our eating.

FIRST warning, our scientists, technologists invented insecticides such as DDT, and it hurts the environment more than killing insects.

SECOND warning, our industry has invented chemical do not exist in nature, to coat our pans, to chill our food, to cool our room, to boost our spray. Mother earth opens a hole in Ozone layer in high sky.

THIRD warning, over the last few decades, we were given synthetic fabrics for wearing. Our body, our skin, the biggest organ, the strongest organ, the organ defending our intricate inner tissues, organs, has rejected it.

FOURTH warning, Our Industries, our factories have feed cows, a herbivore, meat protein. And cow turned mad. Mad Cow disease does not happen before.

Our body is the results of billions years of close interaction with environment.
Our body exists naturally, among nature, for thousands years.

Pharmaceutical Industries, Biotechnology, Gene-modifications, are creating compound, formulae, life-form do not exist before to satisfy our body.

Stimulant can propel a chicken to grow faster by weeks, growing meat tender and sweet. What can we deduce, if we eat hundreds time more of not just chicken, over not just week, what would we become?

New formula, new drugs, do not exist in nature before.
Are they the means for living, growing, healing of our body, natural body?
or
Are they the cause of new problems, problem exist not before?
This is what we must ponder!!

Olympic of thousands years history, bans steroids from sportsman.
Is it right thinking to invent new drugs to heal our sickness, to improve our memory?

What is the benefit, we have seen some.
What is the impact, we see many, heavy.
We have seen holes in Ozone, we have seen cow mad.
Impact hidden, we never know.
Do we need many warning, before man are not man, girl are not girl?

The world health organization, with the help of NGOs, governments must do a serious survey, to determine if there is a trend of increasing in-born, and increasing mid-life change.

This cannot be less important than monitoring Global Warming.

Global warming is important, and causes are looking into, solutions are sought.

Homosexual of human, if on the increasing trend, will lead to the extermination of this species. It is more important.

First world nation must take the lead, voices come from that quarter more.

A well organized island nation, with clear borders, with precision on residents’ history, should initiate and lead this censor, and derive clear answers, for the world.

Rich men, Poor Men, Wealth Creation

On Change of law, Charges to Enbloc Sales

Saturday, 01 September 2007
http://cognose.blogspot.com
Cognose Lim Swee Keng
Discern Before Happening
Solve Beyond Causes

If you should charge the developer more fees, pass these fees back to the sellers’ CPF, for their old age securities. The sellers are not profiting from this sale and wasted in Casinos.

The poorer parted their loved units, downgrade to cheaper public housing, exactly preparing for the uncertain, long future, long before national leaders plan for such days with efficient, effective, painless solutions.

The poorer face the darkness, bite the bullets long before others realized.

The world respected Minister of Mentor for Singapore, Mr Lee Kuan Yew, when talking about selecting leaders, had his observation that when the poor man was invited, he will stand out and do good for the nation. While for the rich would ask: “What for?”

This is indeed an important observation.
As usual, whatever this wisest man of this time stated, is real, profound and affected beyond.

When a poor man, proven by his ability and vigour, character and resilient, is invited by great leaders to lead, as long as his heart remain truthful, would remember the suffering, the rude jeer they experienced, the yearning for realistic, better, living condition by the poor. And what they strive, would help not just the poor, but make better social harmony, national solidarity, and the rich live safer, happier.

Rich men, have many projects to occupy themselves, many enjoyments yet to be filled.
When the nation is prospering, there is much wealth to make.
When the nation is declining, there is not just mobility, but many invitations, many promises of greener pastures from beyond.
They obviously have no time for trivial wealth the nation has to reward them.

The core issues is this:
Without Rich men in the national leaderships, would legislation, executions be unbalanced, would miss out the interest of the rich?

The question is:
In anytime in history, in any corner of the world, in any minute jungle tribes or highest society, would any rich man, sit still, do nothing, and let leaders, parliaments, nations set legislation that affect their interest?

The answer is obvious:
Yes, definitely so. When that rich man lost his wealth, his friends lost power, house arresting, assassinated. This we are witnessing so many, even just around us, even at this very moment.

The next question is:
Would national legislation, policies, strategies be unbalanced, or even full of flaws if rich are not in the political leadership? I have not heard of this!

In his farewell speech in 1961, President Wright Eisenhower warned of the immense influence the emerging Military Complex on national policies. An outstanding Military man, who led the Allied to overcome the mighty, gigantic military machines of the Axis, certainly most qualified to sound this loudest alarm to civilization.

When Singapore was negotiating bilateral trade relationship with America, the world largest chewing gum company not only influenced American’s legislators, government, also exert his influence on Singapore’s domestic law. World largest Chewing Gum manufacturer, for merely 2 million consumers, far away, not in his constituency, constitute minute part of his interest, would exert his might, and let his might be felt, unhidden, unashamed, to the utmost.

Singapore’s gifted, articulate Renaissance Foreign Minister George Yeo, saved the day.

This experience reminded all leaders, that bigger, richer, more powerful people has more than enough ability, articulation to influence even national leaders, directing international relationships even other nation’s domestic affairs. Therefore, what more will be the interest of the weaker, poorer, smaller? They are definitely within this shadow, if not control.

So whenever there is new nominee, policies, laws, who is the first one to know?
Who will bring up more opinions, faster, more convincing?
Who has the ability to choose the right vocabulary, clauses?
Who has the propensity to choose the avenues, and determine the speed of progress?
Therefore whose interests are best protected?

Rich man does not need to be political leader to lead politics.
Capable poor, even the most capable, need a lot more to become even a leader.
The poor, even after becoming the supreme leader, may not even influence political decision.
Just look at the capable, honourable, General Colin Powell, he know the price he has to pay for running for American President, so he abstained.

This is common sense, this is right in front of us, we need not genius to realise.
Since this is such obvious, powerful truth, we not only cannot ignore them, we must manage them well.

If rich man needs the law to be modified to protect their rights, they are men without ability.
It is like prodigal son, even with the best of law to protect them, they would not be able to protect their ever diminishing wealth. Not to mention about creating wealth.

Creating wealth is the very essence
for the survival of man, prosper of nation !!

The great thing a rich man can do is to grow their market, improve their efficiency.
Improving efficiency, rich man only need to employ capable managers, which are available by tons, without the need of law.

The greatest thing a rich man can do to bring unlimited benefit to himself is to grown his market, open new markets.

Any capable, able rich man, start up, even a young, unseasoned descendent, even in a matured industries, even a trivial, old trade, like Coffee and Toast, they can innovate new ideas, inject new vitalities, open chain stores.

What the nation can do is to facilitate them, such as provide efficient, reliable, cheapest utilities, communications, transport, good basic education for the masses, train the poor to be disciplined, skilful, trustworthy to work for the rich.

From a bigger picture, for the interest of nation, for the global positioning, for longer term growth, we must help these capable self-respecting rich men to promote their image in the world, champion their entries to world markets, and multiply our international trade and capital income.

But if the nation pooh-pooh at the ability of rich man and their contribution to nation’s economy, modify law to let them have more voting rights on top of what they already procure with open eyes, then it is a big mistakes, if not plain stupidity.

The modification of law to let the richer, bigger share owners to have more rights to vote, more say to say to the same piece of cake, not only diverting the focus of greater wealth creation by the wealthier, it also remove the crumps from the less nourished, little forum for the voiceless, the lesser would end up with much lesser.

What can the lesser do?
They will break into the car to steal the few shillings of change, they would tear apart the hi-fi in the cars, which are already happening on the increase in the first world city, Singapore, reputed for its low crime rate. It causes heart-ached of the rich. If this progress, then their children also will need bodyguards to go to school, their villas need higher fences to fence off suitors, where is the peace of mind to generate bigger wealth? This is the reason why our neighbours, Indonesians, Philippines, the richest send their children to the neighbouring Singapore for education.

Now, in Singapore, many common people are selling their beloved condominium, to down grade to smaller public housing, so that they have cash for their old age, their uncertain longer life span without income.

Instead of helping these pragmatic common people, laws are enacted to charge more fees for such transactions, and assign more rights to the richer among them, what will become of this society? Where would the strength, the might of the nation, the richer to focus on? Creating wealth for this nation, or collecting every dime from the lesser and smile home and suddenly realise, their homes are broken into, their poorer neighbour jumped to the rail, their daughter raped when visiting her friends. This is the picture you are seeing now.

I beckoned the leaders, the richer, the powerful, do not use those little meaningless words to shock the lesser, do not using professional jargons in areas not of their expertise.

If you should charge the developer more fees, pass these fees back to the sellers’ CPF, for their old age securities. The sellers are not profiting from this sales and wasted in Casinos.
The poorer parted their loved units, downgrade to cheaper public housing, exactly preparing for the uncertain, long future, long before national leaders plan for such days in efficient, effective, painless way.

My fellow alumni from MIT, a white man was wondering to me, how come on this Island of Singapore, everyone think the white is the right? A white visitor to a private compounds are accorded as the owner of the compound, or honoured guest, or invited lovers, while coloured skinned are checked for contractor passes, shouted as trespassers?

If the richer, the better learnt, the bigger landed are united to use their gifts, talent, network to seek beyond this island for best buyers of the land, best architects to design best housing on this land they cherish, than to dig that last penny from your neighbours, your constituents, then would this nation not be richer?

How to create wealth, more wealth?

Accord more voice to the louder?
Giving more decision making to those who already hold more votes?
Teach the richer to gain more from the lesser?
Tax the developer more so that they disburse less to those who intend to downgrade and save for their twilight?

Then you shall
Let the richer live in a less peaceful society !
Let the voters vote in other forum of their fume!

or

Persuade, help the gifted to create more wealth from outside the cake?
Invite more, better quality Foreign Direct Investment to this island?
Let the lesser has more money for the unknown, protracted retirement time?

The law of nature is very robust
that everyone will live to taste the fruits of the seed they sowed.

The law of nature is very merciful
those who sow sour, bitter seeds they shall not perish at their prime, at time of their choice
but they will live till feeble, and cannot leave, cannot act yet can feel, can be acted upon
so the wise shall choose to do the right thing?

Iraq is not Nam - A Policy US Needed

November 14, 2006（619 words Main Body)
Lim Swee Keng
Engineer, Inventor
sweekeng@alum.mit.edu
ideas@cts-ideas.com
published at cognose.blogspot.com
www.cts-ideas.com

Iraq is not another Nam.After many years, American, except unfortunate pilots, did not set step into North Vietnam.But American set foot on every township of Iraq within months.Iraq is not another Nam.Without support of two super powers, Soviet Union and Communist China, Iraq cannot deliver any fatal blow to America Homeland.Occasional harassments may be.Iraq is not another Nam.Without support of superpower, as long as the neighboring states take care of their people, do not let their peoples lost hope, rebel against them.There is no falling of dominos.It is typical of history may be.American is trading practices with Communist World.When American raised their voices yelling Freedom, Democracy and imposing on others.Russian, Chinese quietly developing their economy.When American is trapped in the belief of sectarianism is the cause of trouble.Chinese abandoned class struggles.This may be because the western thinking is based on divide and rule, it makes everything simpler, manageable, reproducible.It is with this paradigm of thinking, that western scientist is able to build microelectronics that benefits the world.

But this brings one to be too focused on quantifiable, singular objectives, and lost the greater pictures of interactions among diverse, synergy among parties. (Neil Hendric Bohr needs the enlightenment of Taiji to breakthrough Newtonian Physics to Atomic Physics, "Contraria sunt Complementa.")

So they need longer time to be awakened to the necessity of integration, arts of synergy among diverse.
This double-edged sword divides one integrated holy book into denominations that even kins fought among themselves over the plain of Europe for hundreds of years.

It is no wonder to the western scholars, when there are differences, they cannot co-exist.Clashes must, civilized must clash, bloodiest of clashes is held to be the truth, in that token, Men will destroy all Women and exist as one superior species. This is fundamentally wrong. Iraq troubles start to deepen. Many western scholars dreamt that election would solve the problem. It is proven a false hope. So authorities, like Foreign Affair, invited experts, authorities to offer their opinions. They have diagnosed that the existence of different sect, the Shiite, Sunni, the Kurds are the root cause of trouble, and proposed to divide them, fence them apart.
Any common person, with even little wisdom, will know that this is vanity. You cannot even pick out a few armed foes from a little town, how are you going to divide the people across deserts, with no clear demarcation.
New Iraq Policy after election, without new sight, new understanding, it is with little hope that there will be breakthrough. It is proven today.Even the Secretary of States Condoleezza Rice said : “the only constant is change.” Without even stating what state are we in, definitely do not know why civilization is changing, where this change is heading leading us to?What she said is as good as a Chinese idiomatic phrase: “A blind lit a lamp.” Useless.In a recent international business leaders’ conference, I sadly saw many leaders are trapped in their concepts, ideas.So I contributed what I thought is obvious:“The locomotive for the progress of civilization, the yard stick to measure thus isThe integration of greater number of people, from greater diversity, deeper, broader, faster, more frequently.”I was both glad and shocked that such common sense explanation won a round of applause.If we are aware that this represents closer to truth. Then we should not place freedom, democracy, religions, gender-equality as pre-requisites. These had wasted a lot of effort, energy and washed away precious lives by such meaningless pursuits.If we focus on the protection of Iraqis’ life, property, and let every Iraqi’s able man busy and pay for what they have worked for, even if we have to lost some freedom and democracies. America will win back the people’s heart. Even initially some may be sacrificed to establish sincerity. This can be done much better, by teams of doctors & nurses, water and medicines, teachers and child-care, before engineers and technicians. And never, never police, army and preachers, in that ascending orders.

By facing this squarely, knowing US is now either failed in this mission, or continuously paying the heavy price, in blood and in gold, with no hope of returns?

A better avenue for US is to ask for the help of international community to move this away from a mission of occupying to a task of humanitarian assistance.

The only question is how could we convince the world?

For the realist leaders, motivated by profits, they know very well no one can afford US to fail, extremism will spread to their door steps.

For the idealist, humanitarian leaders, they know they cannot look other ways when the death of civilians are escalating, beyond the scale of all recent conflicts combined, in Eastern Europe, in Africa.

For the Muslim world, the world will come to respect you and leave your lifestyles, culture, Religion as you practice. No one can coerce you to subscribe to their system, which is after all full of imperfections, which is the only constant in all man-made.

This approach is definitely more effective, more definite, faster, and would last.
American not only can leave the difficulties behind, rebuild international image, and definitely would win a trusted ally like Japan even long after American governance. American did not rely on democratic election, nor dismantle the Industrial giants that initiated the militarization.America is the only super power today. There is no one close behind, and definitely no one has the strength to destroy America.Only by self-doing, would America totally, permanently destroy herself.One worth thinking“No matter is a white cat, black cat, one that can catch mice is a good cat.” Deng Xiao Peng said.

No matter George Senior, George Junior, Elected, or otherwise into the seat, you can do it, only need wisdom listed above.

Lim, Swee Keng
SM(MIT), MBA(Law)
Inventor, Engineer
Philosophical Thinker

“Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom” ISBN – 9810513757
“Dynamite Economy”cognose.blogspot.com
“Tao of Energy - the most effective power to solve key contemporary challenges”
(Stagnated Economy, Rural Poverty, Energy, Environment) www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy (0) -- Summary

0. Summary

All the world major stock markets are facing several cycles of violent swings.
The ability to sustain so many cycles of such violence, underlined it is not a bubble.

The biggest corporations, with largest profits are Financial Institutions, and Energy giants. They are producing around 9% of profit.

Financial institutions, Retail, Distribution are critical lubricants for market efficiency and energy is the lowest value elements among all factor of production. They are not real wealth generators.

The largest wealth generating industry is the automobile industries, and its return is only 1%. Worse, largest General Motor and fourth placed Ford are making huge losses. Combining with other wealth generators like, electronics, electrics, aircrafts, their profit is merely 1/3 and 2/5 of Financial Institutions and Energy giants, respectively.[1]

This is analogous to a patient with arteries (banks) bigger than muscles (wealth generators). Huge amount of energy (wealth) is sending through. Yet they find only some weak muscles that are unable to consume this energy to labor, to generate new food (wealth). The arteries will be clogged with excessive wealth (inefficiency), yet driven by zealous heart (hyper-active investors), and soon the patient will have blood vessel exploded, brain hemorrhaged, stroked, paralyzed and perished in a totally warped manner.

This is a world economy ready to explode like dynamite.

Analysis is provided here, solutions will be presented in series.

[1] http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/global500/2007/full_list/index.html

Dynamite Economy (0) -- Chart

Dynamite Economy (1) -- What is a Bubble

1. What is a Bubble

Today, investors, advisors, leaders hold caution in their hearts even painting rosy pictures to others.
Every one of them is on their toe and thinks it is a bubble, recalling the Japanese experience in late 1980s.

What is a bubble?

Bubble Economy of Japan was due to the over confidence in their own economic prowess. The phenomenal boom was engineered by innovating new household electrics and electronics. Every Japanese was in euphoria, buying up a few movie industries, real estates like Rockefeller Center, Brazilian Coffee farms, and countless others. The world was large enough to absorb these neu-riche without causing much inflation.

When Japanese’s innovation slowed down, market saturated. This wealth-generating locomotive simmered off, economy bubble burst, dreams shattered. Tokyo Stock Exchange Indices were shaved by factors, and never return till today. Soon this will the second decades Japanese stayed at the valley.

This was a Japan-centric boom. This affected only political, economic situation in Japan. The impact was neither deep nor far-reaching. Wealth generated was relatively small. Once the wealth generator slower down, dreams gone. It was a bubble, merely a bubble. This is what a bubble is.

Even we look at the Great Depression, Dow Jones Industrial Average was chopped by more than half, after the crash, Oct 29, 1929. It led up to Second World War.

From history, we can see what will happen, when an economy ran out of steam, and the effervescence sizzled off.

There is not much excess wealth to support the market, swinging the market up and down. So the dreams gone, the bubble burst.

Dynamite Economy (2) -- Forecasted - 2001

2. Forecasted - 2001

Around 2000, after my interactions with leaders of technology, economy and nations, i sensed that the economy is coming to stagnation. Because of the urgency, i alerted[1] my leader that technology, particularly electronics, had crossed into the plateau of a S-curve. Three decades of rapid economic growth, after Vietnam War (that ended in mid 70s), is no longer sustainable.

In that report, three possible scenarios were stated, and subsequent happenings verified this foresight.
1. Discover Immense Market of Consumptions. Market size of consumption bigger than China and India. Chinese government spares no effort to develop rural market consumption. Unfortunately, the hardworking ancient civilization out produced not just their demands, also world demands.
2. Initiate a war to destroy productivity. On April 1st, 2001, there was a mid-air incident involving American reconnaissance plane. It was crippled and landed in Hainan. i wrote a note formally alerting nation’s leader that the next conflict is likely to be in Central Asia, Afghan is the most likely theatre. Within half a year, not only war in Afghan was created, soon Iraq was dragged into. Technology has provided the world with instantaneous graphical reports of war scene. World leaders, common people realized the terrible cost of war, vanity of invasion. First world’s armies, industries were spared. Damage to world productivities is neither wide spreading nor deeply felt. Human’s hearts mitigated their might.
3. Create New Industries bigger than Electronics Industries. After seven years of inventions and examinations, at least 8 new industries not only can be created, they will address key issues civilization is facing. They shall be presented, in series.

After these analyses, a clear opinion was presented to the leader of our national investment arm. i strongly recommended to switch investment from Hi-tech stocks, to retails, telecommunications, banking and finance. This minimizes exposure to high risk, long gestation, low return ventures. Another consideration is to focus all strength to feel the pulse of world economy, to be able to detect first signs of troubles, of opportunities.

Above all, the most valuable is to detect the emergence of significant new industries.

Within a day, this opinion received resonance. Within few months, three of top ten richest listed by Forbes came from Wal-Mart family. Wal-Mart since then has stayed as Fortune number 1. The insight, foresight brought pronounced benefit to the nation.
Reflecting, as long as if you seek to the root cause of economic activities and motivation of people, anyone would have made similar conclusions.
[1] Real Economy, Realities of Economy, Economic Realities, June 2001, edited February 2003. “Cognose – Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom, Chapter 2, Seeking Truth”. Winter 2005. ISBN 9810-313757, also published at www.cts-ideas.com

Dynamite Economy (3) -- Expired Growth Engines

3. Expired Growth Engines

Over the last thirty years, there were endless new electronics devices that fit everyone’s needs, buying power. Immense new consumption thus created.

This no longer is the reality. The reality is that most of the new products, such as LCD screen, MP3 players, digital cameras, are simpler to manufacture, many assembly workers lost their jobs, small photo-shops also closed down. This impacted the roots of jobs creation, which is the most important driving force for any sustainable economic development.

Darling of venture funds, Biotechnology, is not a solution. It was made clear then in 2001, that it is not a solution. In 2006, with deeper understanding, i submitted that Biotech is merely an extension of medicine and herbalists, improving agricultural produce, health and healing. It is important for animal kingdom and civilization alike. But it is unlikely people will spend 10% of their disposable income, swallow 200 gm of drugs, change a few organs in their life time. This is the yardstick electronics industry demonstrated in order to be a significant economic force.

Bio-tech will progress
but will never be a pillar of economy!
even though may be a pillar for human well-being
The change of R&D directions of Singapore underlines this point.

Dynamite Economy (4) -- State of the Economy

4. State of the Economy

The greatest danger is not unemployment the size of Europeans, Americans. The great recession in 1930 we have witnessed, many experience gained, many theories written, many solutions ready to be tested.

This is not about poverty, this is not about lack of funds.
This is about:
1. The number of excessive labor, India, China, is unprecedented.
2. 30 years of electronics boom has created wealth of magnitude unprecedented. With productive Chinese-Indian labor, this wealth creation is now sky rocketing[1]. This wealth will make money flooding every channel. In same report it was stated that Allan Greenspan will become the least powerful person, when interest rate is close to zero, money is freely available. He could no longer use Monetary Policy to effectively moderate market unless he ventured into negative interest rate.
3. When there is no new technological challenge, the intellects using their complex brains, created a new field, Financial Engineering. They repackage high-risk assets into sub-prime tradable. This already defies the primary principle of
a. Engineering – reduce intermediaries to improve efficiency and through put,
b. Management – Transparency & Accountability.
This complexity seduced a lot of interested parties holding real cash, wealth. Good quality assets are made to support poor quality debts. This not only insulated banks from high risk lending, this boosted the values of financial institutions. This bloated already excessive wealth into gigantic Goliath. This explained how Financial Institutions, a means for improve market efficiency, lower cost of wealth generation, eventually earn 3 times the return of real wealth generator.

This is garbage wrapped in pretty gift boxes.
Those who think it is Christmas, found dynamites place in their socks.

4. Globalization provided the vehicle for the eyes of the wealthy, to exert his finger of inflation, to escalate at his fancy, the price of every plot of land, every piece of arts, every head of athletics, even every cake of tea, every gram of chocolate.

These four points clearly stated today’s economy is supported by excessive labor, over-abundance of wealth, AND fabrication of wealth from debts.

Its reach is all-penetrating, its effect is excessive; its consequences are long lasting. It is not bubble.

So we must determine what is a greater danger?
Is it powerless, easily burst bubble?
Is it solid gold gilded dynamite?
It is indeed this over-abundance wealth that found no place to invest.

This over-abundance wealth is moving into every corner of the world, moving every item that can change hand, physical, virtual, real, fabricated, existing, will never exist…….
[1] US$1.2 trillion foreign exchange, increasing at $1billion every day, EIU, NY, May 25, 2007

Dynamite Economy (5) -- Feeble Solutions

5. Feeble Solutions

The stellar growth of Japan in the 70s and 80s was fueled by Sony and the like. The regain of leadership by American, in the 90s was by IT/Communications. Clinton without IT will face similar challenges as Carter/Reagan facing Sony. We can quite clearly conclude that locomotives for economic growth were not, and will never be created by politicians, economists. These Joseph Stiglitz stated in his recent Raffles Speech in Singapore.

Even seven years latter, only few like DeLong[1] written about this phenomenon, based on dated numbers. In a rapidly changing market, knowing the number, without the cause, nor the scale, is as good as telling you yesterday was sunny. Others, Management Gurus like Michael Porters, have not demonstrated such foresight and insight into the cause and effect, scale and gravity of problems. This can be seen from his recommendation to Singapore government to focus on petrochemicals, fertilizers, and plastics. When low price for farm produce, stagnated electronics, these would not provide a substantial growth path.

Technology, innovations are not able to create enough investment opportunities to absorb over-abundance of wealth, of labor. So funds are rarely invested in Industrial facilities, production spaces. There are no job creations; there is no real wealth generation. The multiplier effects in economic axioms cannot be put into action.

Worse, excessive liquidity inflated the price of even every cake of tea, every gram of chocolate, even pay you to borrow (sub-prime loans), pay to buy others debt (negative value assets repackaged), to beyond imagination.

This demonstrated a fact that experts without grasping the root cause of issues, not only they cannot have foresight, they are even unable to solve problems at hands, not to dream effectively at the root.
[1] DeLong, Bradford, 2007. “Fear of Finance”, Project Syndicate, http://www.project-syndicate.org/.

Dynamite Economy (6) -- Greatest Danger

6. Greatest Danger

The inflated pricing of assets, is supported by over-abundance, that spinning around looking for way to spend. It is without check and balance, supply and demand. Therefore not only it is not transient, is not trivial, in fact it can last beyond a moment.

This pricing at free will, will soon increase the cost of living, wasting resources, ignore the most critical element of any survival,

efficiency.

These will severely impact the lower rung in the society.

Without new Industries, there is no new employment, not only there is no wealth creation, there is no generous consumption appetite from the populace. The wealth of the richer will not grow.

Using vocabulary from the economy, excess wealth will convert necessities to luxury ornaments, the higher the price, the better it sells. The opulent design of hand-phone, the branding of tea leaves, chocolate, to beyond monthly income of common workers is what is often reported, but how many of us realize the cause, the impact, the danger?

Using common sense, this is a market without check and balance, management without efficiency as objectives, resulting in the detachment of price from value. This will definitely lead to wastage of all resources, polarization of society, unrest in the world.

In the last few months, we witnessed few rounds of violent rise and fall in the stock market.
This is an indicator that we are stepping into an era of greatest danger.

Dynamite Economy (7) -- Dynamite

7. Dynamite

Great Recession was still bounded by human logical response, restrained by limited reach and wealth, protected by sovereignty and borders, diluted by distance and time taken to travel.

At this moment, most national governments prop up the market. This action does not create new wealth, nor expand employment. It is only disbursement of public wealth into a few fortunate hands.

This current violent swing will continue, because sovereign funds have overwhelming reserve.
This can sustain, but not longer than 2 years.

At this point, wealthy are playing stocks and real estate.
They are not factor of production.
Therefore does not affect common people life, business profitability, social serenity.

But when wealth held by disciplined, national-interest centric government are disbursed into the hand of private, they have no such responsibilities, nor through the rigor of election. They will manipulate other exciting frontiers. Factor of production are of the appropriate size.

When such volatility spread from stocks, which is not factor of production into key factors of productions, energy and material, transport and communication, rent & taxation, remuneration and kickbacks. Everything physical, virtual, cannot be priced but can be bought, will be chess pieces in the hand of the well-endowed. Pricing is floating without attachment to logic nor reality, market will turn beyond the realm of Great Recession.[1]

This is a dynamite in the making !!

In summary, economy of today is resulting from lack of new growth engines to invest the unprecedented wealth cumulated during the three decades. This over-abundance wealth will lead to lost of conscience and responsibility to develop appropriate policies, relevant product and services, improving efficiency and quality of life for the society.

Without such understanding, we are seeing governments lost directions while privates get richer.
Factories closing down, banks are glowing brighter.

This is worse than
cannibalizing others wealth, self-destruction of own wealth generators.
This is self-destruction of factor of production for wealth generators.
No one, private, government, banks, manufacturers will benefit from such situation.

New understanding, direction and solution for civilization shall be presented in subsequent articles.

Dynamite is the most effective means to breakthrough hardest of obstacles!!!

[1] some philosophical explanation can be asked from ideas@cts-ideas.com. It needs to explain using audience specific knowledge and expertise.

Sub-prime Turbulence - Will Govt Intervene help the market??

Comments on Federal Reserve & Central Banks pump billions into market to save the credit crisis triggerred by Sub-prime loan , original news available from: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118673195378094167.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news


Federal Reserve, even the whole world governments together cannot solve this problem.
This is not Lack of money, it is TOO MUCH money find no place to invest. So even inferior financial products (e.g.sub-prime loan) have attracted more than enough interested parties.
At this moment, most national govts have enough reserve, from IT boom, to prop up the market. This action is only disbursement of public wealth into a few fortunate private, not creating new wealth, nor expanding employment.

this current violent swing will continue.
this cannot sustain longer than 2 years.

At this point, wealth are playing stocks and real-estate, which are not factor of production. Therefore does not affect common people life, business profitability. when private has more wealth, they will manipulate virgin frontier, which are factor of production, energy, material, property, utility. This is inflation. Then the whole world will be in deepest of challenge.
And by then government may not have the deep chest to mitigate this.

Economy is moved by business
it is only business can create new industries.
State only facilitate.
Without Sony, etc Japan would not come up, Regan has hard time.
Without PC/Cell Phone/Network, US would not overtake Japan. Clinton had good time.

We need new industry bigger than electronics to absorb the liquidity, to create wealth, else too much brain is used to package wealth and not generating wealth.

prediction of this, including negative interest rate (sub-prime) was made as early as 2001. ("Real Economy, Reality of Economy, Economic Realities" cognose.blogspot.com, also collated in "Cognose-Recover the Lost Key to Infinite Wisdom" ISBN9810513757)

We need to create new industries bigger than Electronics, as predicted in 2001, will provide you with greater details of 8 industries that can help the world to cross this difficult moment.

Real Economy, Reality of Economy, Economic Realities

An enhanced brief for a more vivid, succinct oratorio conveyance of the ideas

Sciences derived from Scire in Latin, which merely means know.
To solve economic problems, we cannot derive merely from historical trends, but we must know the cause and effect, which may succinctly be termed as Forces of Nature and Nature of human .

Scientists and Engineers have abandoned the use of extrapolation for non-animate (particles or Brownian movement) and animate (Ants walk) entities.

We need to know the major forces, if not the root causes. Just like we need to know the very motivation of the journey of an ant, not how has the journey gone so far. While noting that motivation is not easily characterized, it is possible, necessary to identify.

Mathematics was developed through rigorous compliance with law of nature. The medieval and renaissance scientists had persevered, with rigor and fervent in order for their jewels of discoveries to pass down through brutal scrutiny and persecutions.

Social Scientists, in particular Economists have not learnt from these. Mathematics, for applications on Social Sciences, were not developed through equal rigor, rigor of study of interactions amongst the law of nature and nature of people. Many tools for modeling inanimate entities, were used, are being used for modeling of systems whose performance are heavily dependent on behaviors exists only in animate entities, such as extends of needs and ease of use for realms beyond physiological satisfactions.

By design, ignorance or arrogance, many capitalized on extravagance in mathematics to impress. Effects are correlated with manifestations of its historical equal. It is as irrelevant as predicting a car would drive right into a wall, just because it has been driving straight. How can, how can the course of a car be modeled merely by the route it took without considering the underlying forces that changes the velocity, even less so the purpose of that journey partake?

For any economic model to be acceptable to decision makers, a simple test would be to test the model on a much simpler, controllable small system, e.g. a match between two well recorded sports teams. Where parameters are lesser, well documented, the surrounding factors are easier to control and the outcome is simpler, easily quantified and more profitable for modeling experts.

If it cannot even satisfactorily model such simpler entities, then modeling of more complex systems, such as national and global economy can produce relevance? Some ways are initiated here in a primitive form. This is not because a refined form is not ready, but the purpose of this article is to provoke the rethinking of thinkers.

Do not use equations to model social-economical systems, if the understanding of the fundamental system dynamics and forces are not cognized. Even they are cognized, they need to take into deeper realm of cognition, to intangible parameters, such as motivation. Which i do not believe Economic systems can be modeled without.
Dec 2005
The development of human culture, society is very much measured by the strength of the economy. When the economy is healthy, generally the social order, the arts, the life styles are better. When the economy is in chaos, not only the social order, the arts, the life styles are impacted. Quality of the next generation, who experienced the chaos, would be impacted. The end results are not necessarily chaotic. An analogy, the generation who went through the epidemic of small pox, need not necessary is weaker. In fact, most become stronger, against small pox in particular, chaotic virus in general.

With the advancement of economic theory, the observation of the economy becomes easier. There are supplies and demands, there are employment indices, there are trade and current account balances, there are baskets of currencies, there are inflation indices, etc. With the advancement of computation modeling, operation research theory, the modeling of the economy, and the society are thought to be possible.

If we refer to Thomas Kaplan thesis on Management Accounting, “Lost of Relevance”, that laments the failure of financial-accounting-based management accounting, the real feel of the efficacy, if not even the efficiency, of the business operation is lost. The analysis no doubt can be precise, its relevance have lost.

The same trend happens in Economics. That the fundamental assumption of economic theories is fast overwhelmed by the evolution in society motivated by innovations and advancement in communication. The realities are no longer observed by economists, central bankers and investors. In place of these, the most effective tools for stimulation and suppression of economic dull drum and overheat, are assumed to be by fiscal and monetary policies. The tools that are often used are interest rate, taxation and budget balance. When cross border trading is concerned, the tariff barrier, the non-tariff barriers are deemed to be the only tools. The indicators are budget, trade and current accounts balances.

This is so powerful when the interest rate was at median and the growth was limited by cost of capitals. Alan Greenspan was coined as the most powerful man on planet earth, even eclipses that of the President. But in a recession, when the interest rate, corrected to inflation, is almost zero. There is no room for the further stimulation of the economy by lowering the cost of money supply, which is technically zero. Turning interest rate to negative is academically possible and psychologically worrisome. No known application of negative interest rate was practiced and known in the basic form. Would he then be coined the most powerless man? It is an unfair and unkind statement, however, it reflects the reality of our powerlessness in face of the real economy.


Modeling of all phenomenon, nature or social, are merely simplification from reality. With limited human wisdom, we could not totally comprehend the reality, if ever collection of all necessary and up to date data is possible. Therefore, the understanding of the economic reality must be often related to the real market, than the secondary indicator.

There is a good lesson that i learnt from observing many forecasting methods, for mechanical systems, for computation machines, for factory operations, for market demands, for business entities performance, for market movement, for society progression, and for world economic outlook. The forecasts are pretty much evolved from the yesteryears Operation Research tools developed during the Second World War. If the mechanical system is under strict constancy, the input and environment do not change drastically, then the outputs are predictable. That is the best lesson we can learn from history. However, when the environments change, change rapidly. The organizations and technology change, change dramatically. The markets change, change seemingly unpredictably. No forecasting tools is going to be valid, if all the input is a first order derivatives from the historical data. Even the data were collected very accurately through most sophisticated Resource Planning Systems to Point of Sales terminals. Some very short term forecast is effected by Resource Planning System. Even the most complex analyses which may includes heuristics and artificial reasoning, no system has yet able to forecast to a sufficient time horizon with satisfactory accuracy. The over confidence in modeling a simple man-made machines, derived the false confidence in the mathematical modeling of economic reality. This resemblance the Engineers efforts in predicting ants walks, atom movements coined “Brownean motions” when computation resource was abundance. This has wasted many decades of human intelligence. Do Economists learnt from such lessons?

The mathematics and computations are the best clients of data, precise data. However, the economy of today, is no longer pushed by the foundations of yesteryears. The movement of economy is pulled by new technology that is on the verge of commercialization.

Everyone in the economic and political circles knows that America, and the world at large, experienced the longest sustained growth in the past decades. Some attributed to the prudent monetary and fiscal policy. Some attributed to the wise leadership of the Administration. Some attributed to the peace and few natural disasters. Very few of you, who so often traveled by planes, asked the passengers next to you, which industry they worked for, which country they came from. It is the best opportunity to assess the market movement in the grossest sense and yet be accurate enough to see the medium term of few years.

In 1980, you probably meet a lot of Japanese, Americans and some Taiwanese, few Europeans. The industry they were in very much likely to be portable consumer electronics, micro-computers and its storages. As years progress, the frequent travelers becomes more likely to be from industries that involved in notebook computers, software, data storage, printers, telecommunications, new infrastructure for computer and mobile network, and then portable telecommunications. This is a long list of progression for the last decade or two. This has sustained the growth, by first creating new market, new demand, then employment. Higher quality and numerous employments resulted in increased purchasing power. This in turn absorbs the produce in these newly formed market. So the market becomes a quasi equilibrium and yet growing. The market was growing. The investors were happy. The population was employed. The new technology is no longer so sophisticated. Therefore the deployment is easy and therefore the manufacturing base expanded off shore to Ireland, Latin America, South East Asia, and now to India, China. With the huge population in China, the economy is booming to beyond any event recorded in prior history. However, the competitiveness and high technical competency do cast a shadow on where the developed world could anchor their future in.

If we were able to extend classical economic theory to prepare us better for this challenge, we would have rode the curve better and landed softer. One possible extension, is probably within the appetite of classical economists, is the concept of basket of various key components. It used to be currency, commodities, household supplies, etc. Now, to predict the future, both technology and market are two key aspects. I have not sufficient wisdom to provide full solutions. But by looking at the rapidly evolving NASDEQ etc grouping of the stocks, we probably agreed that Telecommunications, Networking, Portable Intelligent Devices, Mobile Communications were the key to observe, say few years ago.

Are we too late? There is nothing to late if we gain some wisdom, each step we prowl forward. Even it was a failure. From this, we could see that the real sustainers of the last two decades were new market, significant market created. The markets were not mere old markets’ substitute. But new satisfaction generators that really fill new desires.

When you travel this time around, most likely your neighbor, if not yourself, are Intel, Nokia, Microsoft, CISCO or their competitors. However, if you looked into their eyes, except may be Microsoft and Intel, the zests are likely to be burning out. And there are no new savior applications on the scene. Palm and Bluetooth did not deliver. 3G are not concrete yet. Digital Cameras did help a few Japanese makers afloat by its greater volume. Unfortunately, these are mere replacement and not a new market, like what GSM and its operating costs, has created and provided a key booster for the last 5 years. Without looking out of the cabin windows, you know we are in a slide, sliding downward. Who are going to be hit, the operators of the flights you sit it, exactly at this moment. Technology is the first tell tales, Air transport is the latter measurement yard stick. If there is nothing in sight, who would commits his resources to work on the yet to be sold?

So do not believe that interest rate can generate sustainable growth, especially when it is zero-rated post-correction.

There are three potential scenarios, first a new promise is found that keeps every one busy, fed and forget about strife for a while. Second a bigger market than China is found to keep all the matured products shipping. Third, find an excuse and pump in money for an outrages defense budget. (Sorry, this is not meant to be so unkind, the writing was done before September 11th, 2001.)



Economic reality is a reality that affects every one. Many wars, man-made calamities were results of uprising of people who lost their possessions and hopes, or manipulation by leaders for riches, for power, for insatiable appetite.

With closely intertwined world economy, the forces to counter any singular tyrant, to assist pockets of poverty is closer to reality and they are favorable to world peace, progress and harmony.

No single central bank, no single currency, no single government budget, even the collective of all these among many countries could determine the markets. This is a more efficient market, beyond Oligolistic market place, while a totally free market do not exist even in dreams of mind sanity.

Democracy and freedom in market place of physical items is closer to reality which benefits everyone,
than
Democracy and freedom in ideological realm is getting farther away from realization as civilization progresses. Note On Freedom in 2-Cognized Truth

Do we predict where ants walk by where they last traveled?

or

Do we see if they are heading to the nest, or do we place a cube of candy ahead near to the route ants would take?
Which is a better, wiser choice?
Which is easier to do, more effective and profitable to ants and men?

Do we model the economy has reached the rock bottom, nicely coined structural unemployment, cannot get any worst, and the only way is up?

or

Do we strive to identify what is the best way to create meaningful employment, even giving up automation, high-tech. Would it not serve a more effective, efficient and yet achievable inducement? And avoid bloody civil commotions?

Which is a better, wiser choice?
Which is easier to do, more effective and profitable to commoners
and leaders?

Edited after Bloody Civil violence in Europe
Nov, Dec 2005